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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 16, 2016 23:47:58 GMT
OAK did right by us and ATL is up 2-0 in the bottom of the 2nd so far. So far, so good.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 17, 2016 13:47:25 GMT
PHI SDP OAK
These were all 20-24 a few seconds ago...but OAK just jumped from 21 to 25.
So technically OAK is the only qualifier, BUT, it's looking like even +20 is having lots of success so we'll track PHI and SDP as well.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 17, 2016 13:50:02 GMT
The only thing is PHI only gets as close as +121 to PK, but SDP is right on PK.
So I'd expect SDP to win but wouldn't be surprised if PHI tanks.
That PK consideration seems to be a key.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 17, 2016 20:55:34 GMT
Philly line boomeranged back to only a 6pt play. SDP remained at 21pt across PK.
All I took was OAK, but SDP should probably have been a play. Didn't get a chance to watch the line today though.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 17, 2016 21:00:26 GMT
Ya, I did my cheat sheet but did not play any baseball today.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 17, 2016 21:12:46 GMT
When you're on a good system, you don't feel like "not betting", because you consider that a loss.
When I'm nervous about betting, I'm OUTTA there and on to greener pastures. Not to say I never revisit anything, but just to say that there is a bad psychology that takes hold of me when I'm on a system I'm not confident on. I feel like I don't know what I'm doing. I feel like I'm losing...which is weird because I've been gambling with the books' money for 3 years...but maybe that's why. Maybe being ready to drop systems is important?
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 17, 2016 22:51:22 GMT
After OAK today, my bet record shows BMS a 11-1 !!
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Post by tmcg on Apr 17, 2016 22:55:29 GMT
Alright.. Let's bet'em from here on out.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 18, 2016 19:08:42 GMT
When FERNANDEZ JOSE 's Team played as Home Favorite- With Total between 6 and 7: 15-3 ML When MIAMI team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - During the month of April: 16-4 ML
Pitcher good in this spot? CHECK! Team good in this spot? CHECK!
I'll play Miami tonight just because.
Nothing is too near to BMS yet. MAYBE we see the Mets make it, but not likely, especially if we're keeping the cutoff at 25.
So just Miami tonight I guess.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 18, 2016 19:27:29 GMT
-St.Louis Cardinals are more popular. -Leake has a wicked record pitching against Cubs. -Both pitchers are atrocious L7G (Over?) -Leake did very very well in Spring Training. -Lackey was terrible in Spring Training.
STL #2 bats in the league. (Over?) CHC #6 bats in the league. (Over?)
So I think we could take the OVER here, and probably CHICAGO CUBS at dog odds.
I don't see why this game is anywhere near even.
Google gave CHC 23,000,000 hits. Google gave STL 34,600,000 hits.
So if these teams were IN FACT perfectly matched, straight up PK.....
STL popularity would give STL slight chalk. STL #2 bats in league would give STL chalk. STL with a pitcher who absolutely STYMIES the Cubs, and had a good Spring Training gives STL strong chalk. CHC having a pitcher who has yet to throw the ball at all, gives STL strong chalk.
Yet STL was priced a very slight dog to open and is basically PK.
So there is obviously money on the Cubs, the question is, "who's paying down the Chicago line?"
So I'll take MIA ML, CHC ML, and CHC o8.
Let's get out there and prove that there are more than 1 ways to skin a cat.
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Post by bonwl on Apr 18, 2016 22:24:55 GMT
What's up guys! Glad to see you're both back to posting daily. Just checked in and read the MLB thread. I like what I'm seeing with the big line moves there. I created a model in Spring Training (adjusted during first week of season) and it's actually predicting these big line moves before they happen. Instead of getting a team at pk after the move, I'm getting them at +130 before the move. Meaning I profit a lot more than +100. I wish I could post a picture here to show you guys my predicted lines. It's predicting line movement at around 85% success over 170 games so far. Are you guys on Twitter? I could send you them via Twitter if you're interested! (Not doing this to brag btw, doing it to possibly add another helpful tool to your capping arsenal! You guys were the original people who taught me so much of what I know today) Edit: Figured out how to add an image. imgur.com/Rpgr3NuTomorrow's games: imgur.com/a/a2FVF
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 19, 2016 1:35:24 GMT
So if there we see TEX -105 on the chart, and our books give it at +115, then TEX would be a good deal?
How did you come up with that chart? Where do they get those lines from?
ALSO, I highly caution this vein of logic because I've across 100s of examples sussed out, Better pitcher overall, better pitcher L3G, better bullpen overall, better bullpen L3G, better bats overall, better bats L3G, better pitching vs. team matchups, and I've see this setup fail time and time and time again...to the point where it can't be coincidence.
In other words, "valuable lines" as far as MLB is concerned, have traditionally not paid me off...PARTICULARLY after the All-Star break. It's unclear prior to the All-Star break, but POST All-Star break the MLB has cost me BIG when chasing value.
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Post by bonwl on Apr 19, 2016 4:06:11 GMT
Yeah, that's how I've been using it. I created a formula using many different pitching, offensive, and teams stats. Weighted them all accordingly and then it will spit out those scores. The MLs listed are the probabilities of each team winning based on the projected scores. I know it's still very early so I'm taking the success with a grain of salt, but I'm very excited about the promise this shows.
I recently talked to a full-time professional sports investor and he harps on how important closing line value is. It's essentially the only thing that matters to guarantee long-term profit. Short-term fluctuations in wins/losses occur constantly due to luck and simple probability math, but if you're constantly beating the closing line significantly you will always even out to profit.
That is what I've been working on over the past month that I disappeared from here lol
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Post by tmcg on Apr 19, 2016 14:19:42 GMT
Good morning gentlemen. I believe I am 0-7 with my last picks. Geez. Ah it happens. Can someone pick me a winner. lol. lol.
Interesting stuff Bon. Good job.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 19, 2016 15:22:56 GMT
That's awesome Bon, but all I can say is that if you're coming up with those values due to traditional capping (stats of players on teams) ... then be prepared for counter-intuitive results...IN OTHER WORDS...if you end up 4-10, don't scrap the system, simply fade it. There may be something to fading what appears to be "value" in MLB, particularly after the All-Star break. I say after the AS break because there have been plural season where what I'm doing kills the books until Late July-August, and then POWWW!!!! Everything loses completely. But when to comes to finding value by capping stats, it's not been at all profitable. You're getting 20 pt edges on teams that will lose so much more often than not. Another thing.......due to the nature of stat-capping........more times than not, you'll be betting chalk. This makes it all that much more annoying and impactful when the value continuously and dependably doesn't connect. AND THE ONE THING THAT REALLY EXPLAINS THIS PHENOMENON? ?? The point that massive amounts of monies are being dumped on the obvious "non-value" "bad" pick. Follow The Money. BTW, after yesterday, my FTM system is 2-0 this year. I don't look for it all day every day, but if I can only find 1 pick, and I need another, I suss it out. Both FTM have been complete blowouts.
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