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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 19, 2016 15:24:07 GMT
Back for picks later I have errands.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 19, 2016 21:43:28 GMT
Well that figures. I guy at work broke some toes and I had to fill in for him. I was all set to handicap every game for tonight and instead all I got done was writing down the lines before I had to go. Too bad.
This TOR @ BAL game should be interesting!! I wonder what the odds are for.... If a fight breaks out in this game. Oh baby. How long before either pitchers intentionally throws at the batter. Could happen tonight. These 2 teams hate each other, carried over from last year.
Anyone got a pick for tonight??
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Post by tmcg on Apr 19, 2016 22:09:57 GMT
I just did a 2 minute handicap and ARI @ SFG Under 7.5 looks good. Tons going for it in the database. It hinges on Matt Cain pitching well tonight.
We have a 100% stat going for the Under 7.5 in the SEA @ CLE game. Highest in the database!
Game is just starting.
Hmm, any picks tonight boys?
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 19, 2016 22:14:03 GMT
There are a few games, but they're nowhere near PK, LAD, and MIN.
The only BMS is HOU, but it's only 22pts, but it is near PK so...hmmm...
I'm going to look for a FMS pick.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 19, 2016 23:26:24 GMT
Well that figures. I guy at work broke some toes and I had to fill in for him. I was all set to handicap every game for tonight and instead all I got done was writing down the lines before I had to go. Too bad. This TOR @ BAL game should be interesting!! I wonder what the odds are for.... If a fight breaks out in this game. Oh baby. How long before either pitchers intentionally throws at the batter. Could happen tonight. These 2 teams hate each other, carried over from last year. Anyone got a pick for tonight?? OK so I'm definitely loving the SFG o7.5 Also, it looks like Cain is CERTAIN to give up quite a few...so I like ARI to win here as well... BUT...... GET THIS...... SFG opened at -131. SFG now sits at -115 So then ARI will have a similar spread between open and real time right? WRONG... ARI opened at -105 and now sits at -108. But this is NOT a FTM pick. Follow the money means that when the POPULAR team, with the BETTER stats, is priced at PK or dog, to FADE pick. This is not that because SFG has 58,000,000 hits on google and Arizona has 98 results. I double checked it, 98 lol. SO. Due to this MASSIVE popularity discrepancy and the general vibe of SFG being a playoff team..... I have to say.... I think I'm comfortable taking on the Diamondbacks at PK here. I don't think this is a trap. I think this is legit money, but it's very hard to know as sharp money could be on SFG...but I'm betting that the populace and SFG's reputation in and of itself could have moved the line that far. BTW.... It's possible that the books expected all that action on SFG and it never came and that's why they moved the line so far back the other way....in which case...again...it would indicate that there is a lack of sharp coin on SFG. SO. Long story short: ARI o7.5, ARI ML
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 19, 2016 23:28:31 GMT
I'm off HOU. Line's going the wrong way.
NYM@PHI was no good....
Hmmmmm.....
TBB@BOS seems good for the OVERish...but TBR has TERRIBLE bats so I don't know...
ARI o7.5 ARI ML
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Post by tmcg on Apr 20, 2016 0:39:17 GMT
Going against the database. Always tricky.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 20, 2016 0:41:59 GMT
There is overwhelming evidence in the database that the SFG home game tonight is going under 7.5 runs.
Yet you like the over. Hmm.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 20, 2016 1:04:29 GMT
Uh Oh... lol Let it rolllllllllllllllllllll all night long.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 20, 2016 1:16:55 GMT
I am willing to risk a 1/4 unit on the under 7.5 runs in SFG home game tonight.
I must admit I found myself drifting away from the database. Time to get back on track.
The RRReport is most reveling. I have always under estimated it. Where do you think I found that 100% stat. For tonight's CLE home game, Under 7.5 runs
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 20, 2016 2:15:25 GMT
This is showdown at high noon. It's been a while! Present your dueling pistols.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 20, 2016 13:53:13 GMT
My dog won, your totals won. We both earned. That's called a 'win-win'. I'm done trad capping totals. It's not profitable. It's basically 4-4 bet and 6-7 tracked. I'm going to leave it alone. It started out 4-1 capping ST stats, but I'm putting down the totals as ST no longer plays into team performance. While we dod track the line for last night's pick, it was not a BMS play. We only tracked the line to deduce that there was likely no sharp action causing the SFG line to spike. We deduced it was likely public bets and therefore clear ARI +105 for take-off
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 20, 2016 15:02:41 GMT
Hey ya TMCG, I was speaking with Ron today and as perfect timing would have it, he has a system for you.
It's a system that I saw on another forum, years ago, that seemed to have reasonable effects.
System is simple. If a team has lost 2 or 3 games straight, and it's the last game of the series, track them to WIN the final game to avoid the sweep.
"No Sweep System."
And Ron also wants to remind us to keep all of our findings IN HOUSE. The reason for this is because if we ever did find a "magical system", and word got out, you can be rest assured that over time Vegas will shave our juice to a massive extent. In fact, if we ever did find a "magical system" we would think about redacting parts of the forums that explain the systems. Like this post for instance.
So just yesterday you were saying you wanted something new to bet? Well here you go, on a silver platter!
Just look up the Quick Stats at ATSSTATS and you can see where their next game is and if they are coming off consecutive losses.
So for today, STL and PHI are on the chopping block. I'll betting 1/4u just for fun to keep it interesting.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 20, 2016 15:05:50 GMT
BMS is eyeballing a 22pt move with SEA. Not sure how these +20 plays have been going, I've only been tracking +25...hmmm..
I might track this as a +20 play at least, or maybe even a 1/4u.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 20, 2016 15:25:15 GMT
Pitching+Positional pick of the day:
When C Martinez 's Team played as Home Favorite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0: 8-2 ML When CINCINNATI Played as Home Favorite - Last 5 Years - With 3 Under: 18-4 ML
Worth a track or even a 1/4u.
P+P System:
When a Pitcher has outstanding stats in the Head to Head section, and an outstanding SHORT stat in another category such as in Random/Smart.
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