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Post by tmcg on Nov 4, 2015 3:41:22 GMT
These guys are playing for OT. I have no problem with that.
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Post by tmcg on Nov 4, 2015 17:37:47 GMT
Well Smart Stats lost last night. Record 3-2
Tonight we have another Smart Stat play.
ORL @ HOU Under 206
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 5, 2015 16:50:26 GMT
CHI + DET + ATL + MIA + - DAL + POR + -
LAL =
DEN - BOS - IND - NOP -
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Post by tmcg on Nov 5, 2015 16:56:16 GMT
Smart Stat play lost last night. Rec now 3-3
1 Smart Stat play for tonight. Over 197
Sorry that's CHA @ DAL Over 197
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 5, 2015 16:56:05 GMT
Today's pick: MIA -164 for a 1/2 unit.
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Post by tmcg on Nov 5, 2015 23:08:47 GMT
WoW that total has gone through the roof. Up to 201.5
That's a 4.5 point move. Not sure I like that. Time will tell.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 6, 2015 3:34:04 GMT
Since you're on the OVER...that's actually encouraging. If the books were confident in their opening total they might trap everyone that's betting OVER. The fact that they've moved it with the action means that they respect the action and consider it completely viable that the total could be well over their opening line Also, btw, who knows how much of that action is sharp action I'm thrilled with it. Sounds like sharp steam to me
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 6, 2015 3:35:11 GMT
I just checked the game, it's looking good buddy
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Post by tmcg on Nov 6, 2015 4:10:38 GMT
There we go. 2 winners. I'll take that.
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Post by tmcg on Nov 6, 2015 4:12:00 GMT
Smart Stats totals now 4-3
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 6, 2015 5:41:53 GMT
CHI + DET + ATL + MIA + - + DAL + POR + -
LAL =
DEN - BOS - IND - NOP -
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Post by tmcg on Nov 6, 2015 16:19:34 GMT
Smart Stat Rec. 4-3
Friday. Tonight we have 3 Smart Stat plays.
PHI @ CLE Under 194 Was @ BOS Over 210 DET @ PHO Under 200
Big night.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 6, 2015 17:25:22 GMT
That's a big night man! I'll have some games too, stand by. In the meantime... Parity. Let's talk about it. Certain teams will do better after losing three straight, certain teams will do worse. The only way to use PVI is to super search how a specific team does when they've W/L 3 straight. If they have a habit of turning things around on the 4th game, then PVI makes sense. If they have a habit of not turning things around on the 4th game, then PVI doesn't make sense. YES PVI indicates that parity is due...but at the same it...it also indicates when teams are playing sub-par and may have static issues. Understanding if it's a static problem or just temporary "bad luck" is important. Perhaps you could look at how many points past spread they've given up? Teams that have lost 3 straight but have only given up 10 or less points after the spread....would mean that they've been within 3-4 points of the spread each time. Maybe parity puts them on the right side of things for the 4th game. On the other hand, if they're 25 points outside of the spread, obviously they're performing way under par and I wouldn't count on parity to describe their chances of winning their next game. It's also possible that the coach has made changes for a few games and will switch back after getting blown out 3 straight. Tracking parity at face value has been a roller coaster and it's definitely not something that you should examine and bet on in a vacuum, but as a part of a total narrative, it absolutely has some value if you're incorporating other instances and factors.
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Post by tmcg on Nov 6, 2015 17:35:01 GMT
That's a tall order. Maybe this weekend.
In the meantime that PHI at CLE game keeps climbing. It is at 195 and I am waiting to bet this game as I feel it might go higher and we already know we are betting the under.
Other 2 games are in. Over 209, Under 201 That's what I played.
I have looked up the referee assignments and will post after lunch.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 6, 2015 17:43:44 GMT
Low Spread System:
BKY ML 1/4u (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS, getting blown out recently -10, -15, +2, -6, -7 BOS ML 3/4u (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, playing real tight. +4, -12, -3, -4
BKY is definitely improving, but they're -36 ATS last 5G. BKY wasn't super strong ATS. BOS is on an even keel, but they're only -15 ATS last 4G. BOS was extremely strong ATS.
-
That said, BOSTON did lose a Low Spread bet a few days back....so obviously nothing is 100%, but maybe taking a second to track L5 records and points off the spread will do some us some service.
ATS can get you well on your way, but maybe a bit of traditional handicapping can bring it the rest of the way.
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