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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 25, 2015 14:50:12 GMT
So that we all get notifications, if we keep the rest of the discussion in this thread, we'll get notifications with new replies.
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Post by tmcg on Oct 27, 2015 0:30:13 GMT
NBA starts tomorrow. Ya Baby. Smart Stats with regard to NBA totals. I sure hope Smart Stats produce like last year. I seem to recall last year it trailed off with about 3 weeks left in the regular season. Then it picked up the last week and half. The lesson is play it right till the end., lol.
When it comes to Smart Stats... It is a play... Or a NO play. There is no in between!!
Some nights it might produce 2 plays across 15 games and other nights it will produce 3 plays across 4 games. I love those ones the best. The way this works is to play those games identified in the Smart Stat section in NBA. No matter how many red, green or blue stars in the other categories suggest the opposite. In fact if Smart Stats says under and there is blue stars backing up Smat Stats in the 80% club it might become a stronger play overall.
No second guessing on this. Some games will come close to meeting the criteria but fall short by one star pointing in the opposite direction. Those games must be thrown out. Out the window!! See ya, good bye. It's a play or it isn't.
Can't wait.
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Post by tmcg on Oct 27, 2015 0:46:14 GMT
I will leave this other excellent system to be explained by Sniper. SOS + WTS with regards to NBA spreads. This is great! When Sniper first explained it to me I said what planet are you from? lol. Then it produced!! Night after night. Totals and spreads right here from atsstats.
What this means is we might have 3 total plays and 5 SOS + WTS plays. Sometimes it becomes a lot. Many plays. Up front exposure for sure. Might have to start at 1/4 units then slowly increase. Can the Database produce again this year? I hope so.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 27, 2015 3:36:59 GMT
ME. Too! Let's see what happens. I kicked off NCAAF with 19-3 so I'm experiencing some parity issues right now, but it's on track.
NBA SOS starts a week after new year if I remember. I might have to check the logs.
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Post by tmcg on Oct 27, 2015 16:56:43 GMT
We only have 3 games today. No Smart Stat plays. 1 game came close but no cigar.
N.O @ G.S. We have 2 green stars on the N.O. side pointing towards the under 212.5. It does not qualify. We have a PVI rating of 68% chance this game goes under with a forecast of 209.08. We also have a 84.62% indicator in the RR Report pointing to this game going under. With a total of 212.5 N.O. Is 1-0-0 to the over. G.S. With that total is 3-2-0 towards the over. We have 1 blue star towards the under. This game has already been bet down from around 214. It is Championship banner hanging night in G.S. Revenge game for N.O. Steve Kerr will not be on the bench coaching tonight. N.O. Also has 6 players out with injury.
Tonight's referee assignment :
James Cappers. Avg score 205.5. With a total of 210.5 or higher his O/U record is 9-3 Derrick Collins. Avg score 203. With a total of 210.5 or higher his O/U record is 5-5 Scott Twarddoski. Avg score 198.37. With a total of 210.5 or higher his O/U record is 6-3-1
I could see this game going under tonight with all the pre game festivities for G.S. And all the injuries and no head coach for N.O.
Still this game does not qualify as a Smart Stat play. Too bad. Patience is a virtue and let's face it, this is opening night.
Besides I have a half unit on Kansas City Royals tonight.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 27, 2015 17:20:55 GMT
Roger that.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 27, 2015 20:26:22 GMT
I think I like Bulls SU tonight.
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Post by tmcg on Oct 27, 2015 23:23:26 GMT
Good luck Sniper with the Bulls. They should want to show their new coach what they can do. Spread sure has gone up.
Speaking about going up, that N.O. @ G.S game total is now up to 215
I am going to throw a 1/4 unit on the under.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 28, 2015 16:00:11 GMT
Tonight's picks:
I see PORTLAND and LA LAKERS in my crystal ball.
I owe parity in my NBA picks so only 1/2 unit each.
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Post by tmcg on Oct 28, 2015 16:13:21 GMT
Well I could not believe that N.O. @ G.S. Game stayed under 215
Once again we have No Smart Stats plays for today. Too bad. 1 game came close but no cigar. SAN @ OKC over 208. I got lucky last night and will not play this game.
I will continue to look at the IND @ TOR game.
Good luck tonight Sniper. CHI should have covered last night.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 28, 2015 16:20:04 GMT
That's why we bet ML in Low Spread ML systems Winner winner chicken dinner!
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 28, 2015 16:22:54 GMT
The only time you bet WTS in NBA is in high spread games.
Why?
Because when a team is up 16 points in that last quarter, they will rest their starters and give back 14 of those 16 points.
I think especially if you pick WTS teams that have covered the spread 2-1, 4-2, of their last 3/6 games...indicating that they have the offense/defense to make that late push comeback.
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Post by tmcg on Oct 28, 2015 16:55:39 GMT
Nice call. This might be the only game LAL win this early season. Both POR and LAL should win their home openers on the ML. Hmm.
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Post by 1weedhopper on Oct 28, 2015 20:05:15 GMT
I love all the great info.
por & lal=ml plays for me tonight
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Post by tmcg on Oct 28, 2015 20:44:59 GMT
Did you know, out of 41 regular season home games for TOR
More points scored in 1st qtr. 21 times. Less points scored in 1st qtr. 19 times
More points scored in 2nd qtr. 21 times. Less points scored in 2nd qtr. 19 times.
More points scored in 3rd qtr. 22 times. Less points scored in 3rd qtr. 16 times.
More points scored in 4th qtr. 18 times. Less points scored in 4th qtr. 20 times.
There were a number of ties in different qtr's and I did not count them. Of course it depends on the spread as to what the individual qtr spreads were.
I looked up all this info because last year I noticed TOR would get out to slow starts and not until late in the 2nd qtr would they start to make a run before the half. Then in the 3rd qtr they would go off like a rocket. Now who knows what will happen tonight in the home opener? New players for TOR and a new defense first then offense.
TOR only played IND 3 times last year regular season. Once at home, twice in IND.
IND. 20. 22. 30 22 TOR. 28. 25. 27. 26
TOR won 94-106 and the game went over 196 with 200 points scored total.
I am going to take a chance on TOR to cover the 3rd qtr in total points scored in that qtr. Nothing big for heavens sake.
Both times in IND TOR covered the 3rd qtr spread.
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