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Post by tmcg on Aug 16, 2016 22:25:43 GMT
When TORONTO team played as a Road team - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - During a night game - Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent - Coming off a 1 run lost 8-17-0 (4-19-2) to the under.
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team - 2nd game of a series - Playing on Tuesday - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent - Coming off a Home win 20-11-0 (10-21-0) to the under.
When NY YANKEES played as a home team - During Current Season - With 1 Under or More 17 - 14 - 0 (11-19-1) to the under.
I'll take my chances on a slumping TOR team and a NYY rebuilding team.
Under it is.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 16, 2016 22:41:00 GMT
What a year. First time in 20 years I lost a wallet man. Damn! I wish my coolers would have stuck to my sports betting!
How are you doing 2H so far in MLB McGrath?
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Post by tmcg on Aug 16, 2016 23:48:03 GMT
It's been a hard year. Win 1 lose 2. That's why I started sticking to Jays games unless something stuck WAY out in the data base. Even then it was no guarantee.
I started the CFL season on a losing streak. I will admit it. Nothing has come easy this year, except for backing AJ. Happ every start this year. It's things like that have helped me survive till this point. Nothing has been easy||
It's been tough. I am not making, I am holding on|
And now we have the NFL coming soon. Really who cares. I will take my time wading into the waters otherwise known as the NFL.
Finish up with baseball and hope the CFL ship right's itself.
Till then… Chin Up and all that sort of thing.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 17, 2016 0:23:59 GMT
Are you kidding me|| Rain delay coming up. Now hang on a second. I would have to verify but I am sure my book requires 5.5 innings played, to become official, as long as the home team is winning, if the game is called. Will this game get called? I doubt it. Still, I will take it. Now I never have any luck with rain delays, well documented. lol. lol.
Still it is something to root for in this game.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 17, 2016 1:38:46 GMT
Will I ever win a Rain Delay game|| Not this season|| TOR game goes over. Too bad.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 17, 2016 22:17:34 GMT
Hey Sniper I am working on something. I have to pay my car insurance at the end of this month. After that I could probably help you out and shoot you say 200 to get you back up and running. I know it means starting over again and investing small to rebuild that bankroll but I had to do it and you can do it also. It just takes time and patience. Besides what are buddies for. Consider it a gift for all the help you have given me over the years. Let me know. It gets lonely around here without you. Cheers.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 17, 2016 22:20:35 GMT
Besides Happ won again today. I had TOR race to 4 runs and TOR to be leading after 5 innings. Both winners.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 18, 2016 15:31:42 GMT
Hey Sniper I am working on something. I have to pay my car insurance at the end of this month. After that I could probably help you out and shoot you say 200 to get you back up and running. I know it means starting over again and investing small to rebuild that bankroll but I had to do it and you can do it also. It just takes time and patience. Besides what are buddies for. Consider it a gift for all the help you have given me over the years. Let me know. It gets lonely around here without you. Cheers. Look man, everything is crazy hectic around here man. I'm so sorry I haven't been making time to come chop it up with you daily. These forums are an obligation and a responsibility and I haven't been treating them that way. After several severe instances of "life" aka "crap happening" this year...from burying my pops, to chest pain, to high blood pressure (195/155), to panic attacks, to shingles (leaving my left eye with reduced vision)...and everything else including losing my wallet a few days back...I've just taken sport-betting out of my habit. I will work at putting it back into my habit so that you're not here all alone. There was SO MUCH that I wanted to document, especially for the post all-star MLB season, and I got NONE of it done. Sorry for making you tow the line by yourself, I appreciate the hell outta your daily posts and activity here, but it's just been "2016 = Hell" for me on my end. Let me see if I can't start getting use to making time again here for this place man. As for my bankroll. I've been betting for about 6.5 years and I've literally been betting with only the books' money for over 3.5 years now man. If I ever have to reup my account, I will call it quits at that point. I really appreciate that offer though brother. That's a big deal for you to go all out like that for a guy man. I appreciate it. I remember doing that for a dude I used to play poker with online 6-7 years ago. It was hilarious because he used his neighbor's Wifi in Ireland to play and kept dropping lol. Anyway, let me see if I can't get back to this forum a little later today and provide some kind of insight, but like I said, post AllStar MLB is not my favorite. By the way, based no how many times I've seen '15-1 ML' crumble, (almost always as chalk), we should consider those as PVI stats and fade the trend. Let me make the point. When it comes to "15-1" stats, based on your experience, would you say that it's describing an inherent trend in the position that's causing a "15-1" streak....where "16-1" is *most likely*? ... In my experience, it's not. In my experience, the odds of a 15-1 streak going 16-1 are somewhere around 55-60%, not much more. FURTHER...it doesn't seem to matter whether it's -120 or -220, they both seem to have about the same rate of going 16-1. So. Unless you've had a different experience, we should simply consider these stats as PVI instances where parity is due. It's very hard to make the case, but it's just about how I find myself feeling about it. Ideas?
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 18, 2016 15:48:07 GMT
When DETROIT team Played as home team as a Favorite - Total is 9.5 - Playing on Thursday: 23-3 ML
Tigers opened at PK and moved to -135.
What a deal! 23-3 ML in this position!?!? WOW!
Except maybe it's not a deal.
Maybe there is nothing particular about this situation and parity will be showing it's ugly head.
I'm going to watch for the DET fade today. Since it opened at PK, I'm thinking maybe blowout stats should still be followed, but after -150, at that point, we should examine fading blowout stats.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 18, 2016 15:55:37 GMT
This is for Biff T Financial in case he shows up: www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.phpTrack umps that have big/small SZ. Track if they call strikes low giving pitchers with sinkers the advantage, or if they call them high giving them a disadvantage. Same with Sliders/Cutters in terms of inside/outside lefties/righties. When you have an ump that disagrees with a pitcher's first/second go-to pitches, we can often see a pitcher get frustrated and give up 5 runs in the first 5 innings. What do you do when you throw a wicked sinker, but the ump only calls them a strike above the knee? How do you hit against that when the ump calls strikes below the knees?
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Post by tmcg on Aug 18, 2016 16:08:53 GMT
Hey Sniper all is good. Take care of life first man. Sports isn't going anywhere. Life comes first.
I am taking a shot on DET today. Good ol Boyd going today. How many cities has BOS played in last couple of days.
Better pitcher going for DET so I will stick to that.
I will hold the fort Sniper. No pressure on your part. Do what you have to do.
I will be here anytime you want to say hello.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 18, 2016 16:19:26 GMT
MIL@CHC, Drake is a Home team ump with a huge strike zone (OU 6-14). Let's track his SZ, find out which pitches Davies uses as his primaries, and see if it lines up with troubles for MIL. Umpire History here: www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.aspUmpire FX here: www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.phpPitching FX here: pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/If anyone needs help finding out who today's plate ump will be, let me know. Davies throws primarily the 2-Seamer and the Change-up. Nothing really stands out. Arrieta, on the other hand, throws the Sinker as his #1 pitch and the 4-seamer as his #2 pitch. As we see tracking Drake's last few games, he's giving up almost nothing on the bottom of the SZ. This could force Arrieta to throw that sinker up a few inches, and or cause some frustration and a lack of a gameplan. Arrieta is a seasoned vet, and this angle is typically going to work better with the newer pitchers, but that said, a small SZ is a small SZ and I'll take the pitcher with a 2-seamer vs a pitcher with a Sinker any day. I think MIL to stand better in the the 1st 5-innings might be a great prop bet here...but I'm nervous about the home-team bias of the blue.... Hmmm. Yeah, at 3.61 ML, Davies has my support without a question.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 18, 2016 16:23:39 GMT
Hey Sniper all is good. Take care of life first man. Sports isn't going anywhere. Life comes first. I am taking a shot on DET today. Good ol Boyd going today. How many cities has BOS played in last couple of days. Better pitcher going for DET so I will stick to that. I will hold the fort Sniper. No pressure on your part. Do what you have to do. I will be here anytime you want to say hello. I'm going to watch that DET game carefully...gotta sort out this parity business.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 18, 2016 19:42:59 GMT
ARGH I screwed up! lol
Look, the ump has a UNDER total tendency.
This means he has a LARGE strike zone making it easier for pitchers to strike out batters.
This means Arrieta has an ADVANTAGE throwing those sinkers because nobody knows if it's going to be in the strike zone until it's too late. This kind of thing frustrates batters severely because if they look at a pitch that's at the ankles that's called a "Strike" then they have to swing at everything in that same spot and a pitcher can go 3 up 3 down with ease.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 18, 2016 21:58:23 GMT
I'll take the DET win and walk away for today.
back tomorrow.
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