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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Aug 14, 2016 15:43:47 GMT
Wager placed, just as I considered that maybe the parity consideration in this spot might be the way to look at it?
17-1....does that mean 18-1 because there is something about this situation...or does it mean that 17-2 is due!?!?
Hmmmm.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 14, 2016 17:04:56 GMT
SFG -1.40
Hmm, I will look into it while watching the Jays.
I took yesterday off from baseball. I blind bet CGY last night and was lucky they covered the spread.
So it is celebration day here in TOR. 40 years of baseball. They are trotting out every great pitcher who is still alive today. I was looking for an angle on this game and this is it. TOR is too expensive at -1.60 so I decided to lay the -1.5 runs, +1.30. They have been In a funk lately but in front of a sold out crowd on celebration day I will take this chance.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 14, 2016 17:34:43 GMT
Everything looks good for SFG today. It's just a matter if Cueto can find his stuff today. He has not pitched well lately.
BAL when coming off a 4 run loss (0-2) When any team in this situation (38-58) that's a 19.79% chance BAL wins today. You can also say that is an 80.21% chance they lose today.
SFG coming off a 4 run win (2-0) When any team in this situation (53-39) that's an 78.81% chance SFG wins this game.
Alright, it's a rubber match so no sweep situation. Good.
Why not. SFG it is. Let's go with the database today.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 14, 2016 17:52:14 GMT
Jeff Kellogg. Home team record (11-9) with a spread between -1.00 to -1.40 home teams are (7-4)
Now both teams do well with him behind home plate but that just makes for an evenly called game with a slight edge to the home team.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 14, 2016 21:44:00 GMT
SSHHHHHHHHH. Be very, very quiet. We are hunting Wabbitts.
Score 1-7 SFG top of the 6th.
Shh.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 14, 2016 23:20:02 GMT
That's baseball.
It was the kind of game where you had both your fee
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Post by tmcg on Aug 14, 2016 23:24:54 GMT
Damn enter button.
Both your feet on the coffee table and then in the eighth inning you take 1 foot off the coffee table and then in the 9th inning you take your other foot off of the coffee table and by the time you lean forward its too late. BAM. Your team is behind and in the end they lose.
Crazy game.
I will stick close to home with the Jays the next few weeks. Stick to what I know.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 15, 2016 18:52:35 GMT
So here is my thoughts about TOR @ NNY.
Normally I won't back Dicky although he pitches better on the road. Still it looks like a lot of call ups for NYY tonight. Giving the younger guys a shot. Now most of these guys have never seen a knuckle ball before or very few times. I think this gives TOR an edge over NYY tonight. I have not seen the line ups yet but I am willing to back TOR in this spot tonight.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 15, 2016 22:08:39 GMT
Too bad looks like NYY are going for the win tonight. All the old guard back in the line up for NYY. Too bad. That was a good angle.
Because of Dicky, Thole is catching, there is an out every time he walks to the plate.
Not sure what to think now.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 15, 2016 22:10:18 GMT
Looking ahead to the next 2 games I see TOR winning them both based on pitchers.
Is tonight the game TOR loses and then jump on them tomorrow and on Wed.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 16, 2016 16:23:53 GMT
I had a feeling TOR was not going to win last night. Man they look tired. more on that game later on.
MIL @ CHC : Looks like everyone is talking themselves into the over 9 runs. Today we have 2 100% stats in PVI for both teams this game should trend under 9. We have a 70% stat for MIL and 80% for CHC in the RR this game trends under 9. Throw in Forecast of 5.08 runs scored and 1 green star for the underhand I find myself backing the under this afternoon. Early start. Wind is blowing to the left and not strong.
More on BOS @ BAL later.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 16, 2016 17:33:04 GMT
BOS @ BAL : Under 10 runs. BOS SOS (+10), BAL SOS (-8). With that total of 10 BOS would be (0-1) SU, BAL would be (4-1) SU. With that total of 10 these 2 teams would be (70-85) to the under. BOS vs righty would be (21-22) to the under. BAL vs lefty would be (6-9) to the under. Using that total of 10 BOS would be (0-1-0) to the under. BAL would be (1-4-1) to the under. PVI is 50% chance this game goes under. We have a Forecast of (5.00) total runs scored. We have an 84% stat in the RR BOS game goes under. 78% stat in the RR for BAL to play under tonight. Finally we have 2 Blue stars indicating this game plays under. This game also qualifies as a Totals Play for me.
Further capping must be done but this is a good start.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 16, 2016 21:13:43 GMT
0-4 for the Cubs. Under she blows. Nice.
I did play the BOS @ BAL under 10 runs.
Still looking at the TOR game.
Database seems to be in sync these days. Hmm.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 16, 2016 21:40:36 GMT
When GALLARDO YOVANI 's Team played as Favorite- With Total between 9.5 and 10.0 15-1-0 SU. (3-13-0) to the under.
When BALTIMORE team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Playing on Tuesday 5-6 (2-9-0) to the under.
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Post by tmcg on Aug 16, 2016 22:16:36 GMT
TOR @ NYY : Under 8.5 runs. TOR SOS (+0), NYY SOS (+9). With that total of 10 TOR would be (2-11) SU. NYY would be (7-4) SU. With that total of 10 TOR would be (2-11-0) to the under. NYY would be (4-7-0) to the under. TOR vs righty (15-24) to the under. NYY would be (17-25) to the under. With that total of 8.5 these 2 teams would be (68-91) to the under. Using that total of 8.5 TOR would be (2-11-0) to the under. NYY would be (4-7-0) to the under. We have an 75% stat in the RR for TOR this game trends under. 68% stat in the RR for NYY this game trends under. PVI is only 47% but thats OK. It always happens with these under Totals Plays. This game has 2 green stars in the Smart Stats section of the database indicating the under 8.5 runs. We have 1 Blue star indicating this game trending under tonight. Did I mention TOR is in a hitting slump right now.
TOR playing on a Tue (1-7-0) to the under using 8.5
All kinds of stats for the under tonight.
That's it for me. Already 1-0 today.
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