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Post by tmcg on Apr 12, 2016 22:55:26 GMT
BAL qualified RR but was eliminated by F.
Price is right. BOS already lost their home opener last night. Could they lose 2 in a row at home. Maybe. BAL price is right. Another total I use has BALmwinning tonight by 2 runs. I am tempted. Gotta stick with the system tonight. If a play is eliminated so be it. Bye, bye, I am tracking these eliminated plays just I case we need to start adding them.
That leaves SFG game which was also eliminated. Boy it sure has a ton going for them in the rest of the database!!!
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 12, 2016 22:59:41 GMT
SP = Slaughter Play! HOO WAH!
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 12, 2016 23:02:10 GMT
Arizona just saved their game in the 8th. Still 2-1 Diamondbacks.
If they take this down, the Big Move System will be off to a whopping 7-0 start! WHOA!
(knock on wood)
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Post by tmcg on Apr 12, 2016 23:05:26 GMT
Slaughter play. Nice.
Yes we should follow those Big Move systems. They seem to be over riding RRF and everything else.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 12, 2016 23:07:56 GMT
My theory is that Vegas hasn't had a chance to set the lines yet because they have no sample.
So I sense that there is a sharp with beards that knows how to exploit this and that his/her influence is so strong that it bends the line.
This won't last forever because Vegas will even up, so get it while the getting is good!
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 12, 2016 23:15:25 GMT
More on SP systsem:
When ALL TEAMS played as Home team as a Underdog During the 2015 season Coming off a 7 run win: 7-5 ML When ALL TEAMS played as Home team as a Favorite During the 2015 season Coming off a 7 run win: 17-12 ML
When ALL TEAMS played as Home team as a Underdog During the 2015 season Coming off a 8 run win: 7-3 ML When ALL TEAMS played as Home team as a Favorite During the 2015 season Coming off a 8 run win: 20-6 ML
When ALL TEAMS played as Home team as a Underdog During the 2015 season Coming off a 9 run win: 0-3 ML When ALL TEAMS played as Home team as a Favorite During the 2015 season Coming off a 9 run win: 8-4 ML
SP earns all day long.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 12, 2016 23:22:05 GMT
Big Move System wins again and over an RRF play too boot.
That's 2 times BMS plays won over an RRF play since Sat.
Let's keep on that.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 13, 2016 0:46:07 GMT
Oh, too bad. STL won by 9 at home. Had they only won by 8 runs our odds would have gone up significantly. Still. Once again bit of a high juice game. And let's not forget if there is any Big Money Line Movement let's follow that.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 13, 2016 16:17:39 GMT
Recap for Tuesday.
We had 2 RRF plays and they both lost. Record now, (7-6) The 2 plays that were eliminated both won. Perhaps I should start including these games as well. Record would be (9-6).
5 plays today. 1 eliminated game.
TEX +1.25 NYY +1.10 BAL +1.05 CWS -1.20 STL -1.45 and SFG -1.15 (eliminated game).
All games fairly priced for today.
1 game I already bet for a little afternoon action is LAA @ OAK : Over 8.5 2 crappy pitchers going in this on. Ya it's a Getaway game in baseball today but we have 17 MPH winds blowing out to center, right field. That should help! Good news in the database to support this play as well. Oakland has to start putting up big runs soon... why not this afternoon. Both teams are off till Friday.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 13, 2016 16:41:47 GMT
I might play that game but I'll play it OAK ML @ PK. I'll have to see.
So far all I see is MIL +126. (which may be too far out of scope for a BMS play....it works best if the move is near PK) Then again, LAA +126 won the other day so we should be OK.
So.
BMS: MIL ML (depending on moves over the afternoon)
SPS: STL ML
Possible Afternoon Action: OAK o8.5 OAK ML -105
JUST A THOUGHT....
Since my book has the best odds...
I wonder....looking across a whole whack of different books right now, OAK ML is the BEST PRICED of them all, but LAA has some people matching it and even beating the price.
TMCG, COULD THIS MEAN SOMETHING? (ie. When my book has the #1 best price on one team but not the other, pick/fade that team that's priced the best.)
The theory is that they're able to sell the line at that price because NO ONE WANTS IT. (fade)
The theory is also that they're able to sell the line at that price because the opponent is so popular, or from such a mega-city that the public automatically gives value to the other team that's not popular. (pick)
Angels vs Oakland.
Hmmmmmmmmm.
The stats say OAK stands clearly better...
("Oakland As" 173,000,000 hits on google) ("Los Angeles Angels" 47,000,000 hits google)
Hmmmm.....So if OAK looks better, and is more popular, then who's betting LAA to keep this at PK?
Hmmm.....follow the money says Angels take this....
Which is awesome news for your o8.5 pick because if Shoemaker is the weak link, and still LAA is projected a win....
Then...o8.5 would be the play.
Then again, Showmaker could be throwing fire like he used to....and this could be a 3-2 LAA outcome lol.
So now I'm thinking about taking LAA ML.
Traditional capping OAKLAND is out of the question. I already know that's completely losing. When it comes to trad capping ERA .AVG Bullpens, etc, Everywhere there is value there is TRAP.
So maybe just LAA?
Who knows. Now I'm confused and will probably hold off lol.
Betting cool bats to go o8.5 probably isn't the greatest idea?
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 13, 2016 17:07:26 GMT
When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 3 runs in last game: 248-201 ML When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 3 runs in last game: OU 197- 236-16 When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 2 runs in last game: 171-189 ML When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 2 runs in last game: OU 163- 181-16 When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 1 runs in last game: 156-130 ML When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 1 runs in last game: OU 116- 151-19 When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 0 runs in last game: 80-104 ML When OAKLAND team played as any Home/Road team Scored 0 runs in last game: OU 96-81-7 When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 3 runs in last game: 233-194 ML When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 3 runs in last game: OU 202- 205-20 When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 2 runs in last game: 213-165 ML When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 2 runs in last game: OU 172- 190-16 When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 1 runs in last game: 157-136 ML When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 1 runs in last game: OU 129- 150-14 When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 0 runs in last game: 100-83 ML When LA ANGELS team played as any Home/Road team Scored 0 runs in last game: OU 80- 94-9 There. Now we see the truth. Cool bats yesterday means cool bats today. OAK and LAA are ranked 27th and 28th .OPS league wide. Aside from 2 teams, OAK and LAA are the worst. I'll be staying away from OVER totals, and I'll be staying away from sides. No telling who will suck more out there... ...HOWEVER... I will follow the money. I have yet to understand why OAK with their popularity and superior starter would be PK with this LAA squad. SOMEBODY is paying down the LAA line and it's not the public. So I'll take a ticket on the LAA ML train at PK value. Something to watch when I get back from the Docs.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 13, 2016 22:58:53 GMT
You nailed it. LAA was the correct call. I bet the over and lost. Moving on to tonight. What are we doing with STL tonight. Tad pricey. SP play but I seem to recall something about those SP plays when there is a day off in between games. I can't remember. lol.
Are we changing our minds on STL tonight?
I already bet NYY tonight.
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Post by tmcg on Apr 13, 2016 23:02:36 GMT
I only bet NYY tonight because I think their is something wrong with the Jays. Just a theory.
Still tracking RRF, plays all of that business might be all for not. Who knows. Started on last Sat and now it is Wed, still I Will track to the end of Sun.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 13, 2016 23:09:18 GMT
< - - - About 1.5% of everything you track will steady earn, the rest will all be 50/50. But it's DAMN NICE when you do actually find those golden nuggets. STL earns all day. At the rate that these plays connect, as long as we're not taking them at -200, we're still earning. Pretty much anything -165 to even -175 still earns comfortably. - As for the 9 runs instead of 8 runs... Well, 2 things... 1. There is no logical reason that a 9 run win should produce a different result from an 8 run win. 2. It was only when 9 runs was priced as an UNDERDOG that we had a bad reaction. STL is chalk...in fact...with a record of 8-4, even at -195, this still earns. Long story short? HELL YEAH we're playing STL tonight They're SLUGGIN' 'EM!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Apr 13, 2016 23:12:24 GMT
I can't wait to see what my "follow the money" system brings to light. According to my experience writing articles...seriously though...When everything looks like it's a steal and a deal...and it's priced great, and the team is outmatched.....LEAVE IT ALONE. MLB doesn't play around. You don't just walk in, find the better pitcher with the better bats and the better pen, at PK, bet that, and think you'll be a successful trad capper. No way Jack. Doesn't work like that. What was giving my "obviously winning team" value was the fact that it was being faded with BIG money on the obviously inferior team. So you gotta watch out for that. You gotta FOLLOW THE MONEY!
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