Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 4, 2015 15:08:21 GMT
February 9, 2015 at 8:24 pm
#1645
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Smart Stat 3 Star system: “Well I love Smart Stats for NBA. Everyone know how it works?
Click on NBA then click Smart Stats. We are looking for 3 or more green or blue stars
all pointing in one direction. Either the Over or the Under. I prefer them across both
teams but as long as it is 3 green or blue stars all indicating either the Over or Under
it becomes a play. If there is even one star pointing in the other direction we have to
throw that play out. Sometimes you may find 6 stars pointing towards the Over and 1 star
pointing towards the Under. I will still note that perhaps that game will still go Over.
More often than not, the game goes over anyways. Now we go to the 80% club and look at
those 2 teams and see if there any more indicators supporting what Smart Stats
uncovered. If there is, it becomes perhaps a stronger play. I have noticed even if there
are indicators in the 80% club going against Smart Stats I will still play it! I look at
Smart Stats as a stand alone category. I can’t tell you how many times Smart Stats says
take the Over or Under and if I just bet those games blindly, I go to bed a winner,
season after season. In fact Smart Stats works right out of the gate. No matter what
time of the season it is. It does get stronger as the season goes along. If there are 11
games on tap Smart Stats might only uncover1 or 2 games. Sometimes when there are only
say 4 games it might uncover a play on 3 out of the 4 games. You never know what will
happen any given night.” – McGrath
The SmartStat3Star system is now 6-2 in the Klondike. (no historical record)
The SOS system: You take the difference between Team A, L14D and L7D, (Let’s say they
were 50 L14, and 60 L7…that means they improved (+10 points.)) Then you take Team B and
do the same thing. Let’s say Team B was 60 L14, but 50 L7, that’s (-10 points) So the
grand total is that Team A is +20 points.
Anything over 5 points seems to be significant, and also, it’s not the bigger the spread
the bigger the chance. Either it’s significant (+5 or more) or it’s not. The best trend
is between +5 to +9 points and +10 to +14 is a close second. Also, when they’re WTS they
are 13-3 to win. If they are ATS they are 7-6 to win. So SOS + WTS is connecting with
solidity this time of year in the NBA.
The SOS system is 6-6-1 in the Klondike and 96-66 historically all time.
February 9, 2015 at 11:42 pm
#1646
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Smart Stat play for Feb 9.
LAC @ DAL. Over 208. Note: Griffin injury for LAC. Still a play.
February 10, 2015 at 12:54 am
#1650
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Smart Stat game that did not qualify.
ATL @ MIN Over 203 now up to 206.5. The game that did not qualify is getting more action
than the game that qualified. Still, stick to the database. A play is a play.
February 10, 2015 at 4:08 am
#1651
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. Another Smart Stat play Winner! Nice.
The game that did not qualify was also a winner.
February 10, 2015 at 8:20 am
#1654
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Wow McGrath, if that stands up, we might have have to take that gold streak and put it
in the “platinum” category!
The SmartStat3Star system is now 7-2 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 8-7-1 in the Klondike.
February 10, 2015 at 8:23 am
#1655
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
BTW, I’ve tried matching the Stars with this system, but they’re not connecting. ATS
Star predictions combined with the SOS picks are a brutal 2-9 right now.
Also, we might want to mine out 1 other theoretical system as well to see if we can find
something else that might work for the upcoming MLB season.
McGrath, do you know of any systems that connect when it comes to MLB?
That’s the one time of year that I’ve never really gone hard at tracking with ATS…
February 10, 2015 at 8:25 am
#1656
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I saw a crazy stat in NHL today. The team was like 9-2 ML but then it was 2-9 ATS.
As if to say, “they always BARELY win.”
I’m curious if I started trying to match teams that are both ATS + ML in the green…..I’m
wondering if there might be an indicator there…..
February 10, 2015 at 3:37 pm
#1662
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Smart Stat play for Feb 10
NBA. BRK @ MEM Under 190 Throughout the database we have 2 Blue Stars indicating the
under and we also have a couple of 80% or higher chance of this game going under as
pointed out in the RR Report. BRK is playing 3 games in 4 night on a back to back. I
will take a chance on the under tonight. I don’t see this line going up so I bet it
right now.
February 10, 2015 at 4:08 pm
#1663
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I will also add. Memphis has held eight of its last 10 opponents to 90 points or less.
Forecast is also in our favor. Predicted score of 184.58
February 10, 2015 at 4:46 pm
#1664
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
For me, when I have a system that works, but there is a lot of supporting/counter stats
in other areas, I give it 1, 2 of 3 “+ + +” or “- – -” (depending on the strength of the
indicators) or counter indicators. This way I can track if there is a bonafide
correlation between supporting stats and the actual system.
February 10, 2015 at 5:03 pm
#1665
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS WTS qualifies tonight:
SAC +9
HOU +2
DET +2
OK here is the thing though….BOTH Charlotte and Phoenix are STRONG favourites under the
Low Spread ML system, which directly fade Houston and Deroit. It will be interesting to
see which system dominates when there is a conflict. Definitely “need to know”
information.
Nonetheless, we can’t get into all of that. Right now, we’re just tracking how THIS
system works.
If we want to compare systems (and I think we should) it should be done in a different
thread where we take time to compare. Let’s just keep this thread about how our systems,
as we’ve defined them, stand up over time.
I’ll probably only be betting SACRAMENTO. I’ll leave out HOU and DET, but we’ll still
track them because they are defined as bonafid “SOS WTS”.
February 10, 2015 at 5:05 pm
#1666
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
On a side note, OTT ML and NYI ML both have stats with strong ATS and ML indicators.
I’ll be betting them both tonight.
February 10, 2015 at 5:11 pm
#1667
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
When OTTAWA team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Before a conference game – playing
on Tuesday 18-4 ATS and 18-3-1 SU.
When NY ISLANDERS played at home – Before a conference game – Total is 5.5 – Coming off
a 1 goal win: 15-6-1 ATS and 16-4-2 ML
February 10, 2015 at 5:11 pm
#1668
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Thanks for the Memphis total. I’ll be adding that to my card tonight.
February 10, 2015 at 11:30 pm
#1670
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I am afraid I will not be much help when it comes to hockey. I have long since walked
away from hockey. No interest anymore! Brings a tear to my eye. lol.
February 11, 2015 at 3:55 am
#1671
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well Smart Stat tonight is a winner. SOS goes 2-1. I will take that 7 days a week. Nice.
February 11, 2015 at 6:51 am
#1672
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Then let’s see if we can’t maybe find something that works well for hockey. Remember,
systems are GAME specific and also TIME OF SEASON specific.
There is no “one size fits all, all the time” system I don’t think. We need to *mine*
this Klondike, find out when what works where, and then bet the gold rushes season after
season.
February 11, 2015 at 6:55 am
#1673
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NICE. I love how the SOS system mashed the Low Spread ML system in both games. And they
were both blowouts too! I’m glad I stopped promoting the low spread system for this time
of year and I’m happy that I have some alternatives to bet on.
Sweet.
February 11, 2015 at 6:56 am
#1674
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 8-2 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 10-8-1 in the Klondike.
February 11, 2015 at 4:48 pm
#1675
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Smart Stat plays for Feb 11.
SAN @ DET Over 196
LAL @ POR Under 196
Seems like 196 is the magic number for today.
February 11, 2015 at 8:53 pm
#1676
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
IND +5 (moved 2 points WTS since open)
HOU +4 (has some positive Green Star considerations)
MEM +4
BOS +7 (has some negative Green Star considerations)
MIN +10.5 (has some negative Green Star considerations)
There are 3 SOS ATS qualifiers as well, but I’ll track those elsewhere.
I’ll be betting IND spread, HOU spread, and no offense, but you’re TOO HOT.
So I’ll be leaving out your totals until parity is finished with your system
February 11, 2015 at 11:33 pm
#1677
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I already bet IND and HOU. Thanks. Smart Stats is going 2-0 tonight. I feel another
sweep tonight. lol. PVI has to kick in at some point. I think we both know that.
February 11, 2015 at 11:51 pm
#1678
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I will be investing in tonight’s Raptor game 2nd Half.
February 12, 2015 at 1:45 am
#1679
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR – 2.5 points to start the 2nd Half.
February 12, 2015 at 1:53 am
#1680
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR won both the 1st and 2nd qtrs. line -1.5 and -1. Toronto right now seems
disinterested a little bit and Sweet Lou mentioned that as he ran off the court at half
time. Now I already know TOR won’t really start playing until about the 6 min mark in
the 3rd. Come the 4th it’s close out time. I feel comfortable backing TOR -2.5 points to
start the 2nd half.
Up by 2 and laying -2.5 means TOR has to win by 5 points. The original spread!
February 12, 2015 at 8:12 pm
#1681
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
S3SS went 1-1 last night.
SOS WTS went 3-2 last night.
The SmartStat3Star system is now 9-3 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 13-10-1 in the Klondike.
February 12, 2015 at 8:38 pm
#1682
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
No play for today.
Kick your feet up.
Chicago to cover +2 if I had to choose on the back of the following:
When CLEVELAND team played as a Road team – After a conference game – playing on
Thursday: 7-22 ATS and 6-23 ML in this spot.
February 13, 2015 at 3:31 pm
#1683
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
POINT SPREADS
TIME————WALLSTAR——-USALLSTAR
02/13 09:40 AM +3½ -110 -3½ -110
02/13 09:22 AM–+4 -110——– -4 -110
I think I have to give this to the WORLD All Stars if I had to guess.
The fact that USA All Stars have almost 65% of the action, I have to wonder why the
books moved the line with World All Stars?
That said, most books didn’t move, but one in particular did.
I’m happy enough to take it as indication of Sharp Money interest.
February 13, 2015 at 3:32 pm
#1684
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Was about to bet, but my gut waved be off at the betting window. I’m sitting this one
out, as, I probably won’t have time to watch that game tonight anyway.
GLuck if you’re betting, McGrath.
February 14, 2015 at 5:48 pm
#1703
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Half point move with the West with the same book that had the World to move first
yesterday.
If I had to bet, West would be my pick.
February 15, 2015 at 5:25 pm
#1704
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well it’s been a nice couple of days off.
NBA All Star game. Well most folks will invest in the West and the Over. Myself I like
the East and the Under. So now I must wait almost till game time to get the best lines.
This is a silly game to invest in but hay tomorrow is a holiday and I don’t mind
investing a half unit for fun on the side and total.
February 16, 2015 at 1:17 am
#1705
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA All Star game. East + 4.5
February 16, 2015 at 1:29 am
#1706
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I said if the total hit 301 I would invest in the Under BUT I think I will layoff the
total. I see 301.5 right now. This is the Big Apple. Points will be scored. Because it
is in the Big Apple this game will come down to the last 6 mins.
For a guy who likes to invest in NBA totals I find myself picking ATS tonight. I think
it is a safer bet. Because I have passed on the total, I will my East pick one full
unit.
February 16, 2015 at 1:39 am
#1707
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well it’s minutes away from tip off and the line just dropped to East +3.5 and the total
just dropped to 300.5
Nice.
February 16, 2015 at 1:46 am
#1708
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well we got a game on our hands. Looks like these teams are playing a little defense.
This could even get a little nasty come the 4th qtr.
February 19, 2015 at 6:10 pm
#1710
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Exactly. We owe it to the sport to bet this.
(Tough hook on the East, McGrath! You had the right idea waiting for the best line
though.)
February 19, 2015 at 6:17 pm
#1711
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Anything for today McGrath?
Right now we stand:
The SmartStat3Star system is now 9-3 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 13-10-1 in the Klondike.
SOS System for tonight: DAL +4.5
February 20, 2015 at 5:50 pm
#1712
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
It’s Friday Feb 20th and Smart Stats produced no plays for today. 11 games and not one
play. Well that happens from time to time. Remember tonight is going to be weird. Some
teams will want to play and others not so much. Will it take a lot of teams a few games
to get going again, who knows. I do not mind taking another night off. I am in no hurry
to bet tonight’s games.
If I am not mistaken, looks like one play tonight in SOS WTS catagory. Detroit has a +8
SOS against CHI. I passed on DAL last night, maybe that was a good thing. I will keep an
eye on this game throughout the rest of today.
Now that EAST +4.5 play should have won. The East fouls with 1.2 secs on the clock. The
West player wasn’t even on the court. (for Pete’s sake). Oh wells. It was a fun game to
watch.
What’s up ATS Staff Writer. It’s Friday. YeeHaa.
February 20, 2015 at 8:09 pm
#1713
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Yes Detroit is a play. I’m starting to track line moves in combination with SOS.
I’ll be trying to bank with MIN today. Strong moves and they’re SOS WTS.
Today’s plays:
SOS MIN +3.5 SOS=16 (Line moved With 4.0)
SOS TOR +5.5 SOS=7 (Line stayed neutral)
SOS DET +4.5 SOS=12 (Line moved Against 1.5)
Right now we stand:
The SmartStat3Star system is now 9-3 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 13-11-1 in the Klondike.
February 20, 2015 at 11:38 pm
#1714
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I missed one game for tonight.
Smart Stat Play. DEN @ MIL Under 199. Now there are 3 blue stars indicating the Over 199
but a play is a play and it will count for the record.
When I handicapped today’s games there were 2 games not on the board and the above game
qualified.
February 21, 2015 at 12:17 am
#1715
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I saw MIN at. – 2.5 this morning. Now at – 1.5. That would make them ATS not WTS??
Looking at The RRR BOS shows strong indicators for tonight. But Jeezz man I just hate
going against any team playing their first game with a new head coach. Side note. I shot
an interview with George Carl and then had lunch with him. Great guy.
February 21, 2015 at 12:20 am
#1716
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
It’s almost Raptor time. Ohh what’s a little almost insignificant all but tiny little
wager on the 2nd half of this game. I mean really.
February 21, 2015 at 12:36 am
#1717
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Right away I see Kyle Lowry with his outside 2 fingers taped up on his right hand. Pre
game. Hmm. Did he hurt them during the All Star game with that big dunk?
February 21, 2015 at 1:06 am
#1718
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Kyle is shaking his fingers. You heard it here first. At 1:25 left in the 1st qtr he
leaves this game. He broke those 2 fingers! Great. Just what TOR needed. DeRozen must be
smiling.
As a totals bettor I might look at the next 4 games for TOR as a possible under play.
Now I have a theory about NBA team injuries! It’s obvious this season.
February 21, 2015 at 1:41 am
#1719
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR + 5 points to start the 2 new half.
February 21, 2015 at 1:45 am
#1720
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
That’s 2nd Half. TOR will will win this game. At + 5 points we get that 1 point barrier.
February 21, 2015 at 3:13 am
#1721
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Nice. TOR covers the spread and covers the 2nd half line. Nice. DET covers. Nice. MIL
Under looking good.
February 21, 2015 at 7:11 am
#1722
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
IS it just me or is it no longer letting us reply to each others’ posts?
February 21, 2015 at 7:23 am
#1723
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
We loaded the pages at 11:05AM EsT today. Anything you capped before then would have
been the early lines.
As for you, GREAT CALL on the Under play. this is about the SmartStatSystem and damn the
rest. Your play came through and that’s huge. All we have to do is track it and let the
cards fall where they may.
As for me.
MIN landed on the right side of the hook tonight! Phew!
As for DET and TOR, for being WTS they SLEW the books tonight man!
I wonder if buying 5 points on my system might make sense given the amount of blowouts
that I’ve seen happen…especially considering they’re WTS?
The SmartStat3Star system is now 10-3 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 16-11-1 in the Klondike.
(too bad I didn’t start tracking until AFTER that 6-banger I had Unofficially, (but
most importantly on my bet sheet) SOSWTS is 22-11-1.)
Woo!
We’re looking strong buddy. (high five)
The SmartStat3Star system is now 10-3 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 16-11-1 in the Klondike.
February 21, 2015 at 7:27 am
#1724
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
All in, (SOS WTS and SOS ATS), we went 7-1-1 last night! 3-0 ATS WTS.
SOLID.
I’m JUST about ready to upgrade my unit size.
February 21, 2015 at 6:34 pm
#1725
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS WTS POTD:
SAC +11.5
February 21, 2015 at 9:45 pm
#1726
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sat Feb 21st. Smart Stat Plays.
No plays today. I will just have to wait for the 2nd half of the Raptor game. SAC it is.
February 22, 2015 at 1:03 am
#1727
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
What’s your record betting Raptors in the second half? Seems like you’re kicking butt
with that.
February 22, 2015 at 1:05 am
#1728
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
It’ Raptor time. I think a 2nd half play is in order for tonight. No Lou Williams
tonight. Last night I bet the under 210. I have a wicked home made pizza ready to go in
the oven. Life is good.
February 22, 2015 at 1:23 am
#1729
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I have never kept my Raptor 2nd half record. I did however just bet TOR + 1.5 for the
full game.
February 22, 2015 at 2:20 am
#1730
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well this is one sloppy game. Neither team playing well. Stupid game to bet on. Having
said that I will back TOR + 0 points to start the 2nd half. In other words TOR must lose
by 4 or less.
February 22, 2015 at 3:18 am
#1731
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well at least I had the under right. On to the next game. I’ll get back then. Go SAC.
February 22, 2015 at 4:49 pm
#1732
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sunday Feb 22 Smart Stats Plays. 3 plays today.
CLE @ NYK Over 197. The line just jumped so I bought it back down to 197.
WAS @ DET Over 195. The line was 195.5 so I bought it down to 195.
BOS @ LAL Over 200. The line is 200.5 so I bought it down to 200.
February 22, 2015 at 4:50 pm
#1733
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 10-3 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 16-12-1 in the Klondike.
MIL +4 (17SOS) Line Moved Ats 0.5
DET +2 (7 SOS) Line Moved Wts 0.5
IND +7 (5 SOS) Line Moved Wts 0.5
February 22, 2015 at 6:02 pm
#1734
Reply
Ron Raymond
Keymaster
test
February 22, 2015 at 11:08 pm
#1735
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I wanna bet that test game but I don’t see it listed at any of the books. lol.
Well the Knicks let us down today and MIL was looking good there for awhile. We nailed
the DET game but the total was a push at 195. With 2 games left I would just be happy
with a split and live to fight another day.
February 23, 2015 at 6:48 am
#1736
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 11-4-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 18-13-1 in the Klondike.
I’m seeing 2 trends developing within the SOS system:
1. There is absolutely no correlation between higher SOS spreads and winning. SOS scores
in the double-digits lose almost exactly the same amount as do the single digit SOS
scores.
2. Since I started tracking the line moves 3 days ago…of the 6 losses, 5 of them were
line moves AGAINST the pick. Further, 4 of those 5 were ATS spreads.
Only one of the losses occurred when the line moved WITH the pick.
February 23, 2015 at 5:55 pm
#1741
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Monday Feb 23 Smart Stat plays.
No plays for today. A couple of near misses. The biggest with BOS @ PHO. We have 6 Green
stars and 1 Blue star indicating the Under. We have 1 Green star for the Over. With a
total of 213.5 and with BOS playing back to back I might consider the under tonight.
Technically it is not a Smart Stat play.
February 23, 2015 at 10:06 pm
#1742
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
PHI 12 +12 W 0.5
MIN 9 +8.5 W 0.5
BOS 6 +7.5 A 0.5
I’m betting PHI and MIN because the line moved with them, but BOS qualifies as well.
February 23, 2015 at 11:17 pm
#1743
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I took BOS @ PHO under 213. PHI + 11.5 and MIN + 8
BOS went into OT last night and are playing back to back so I agree with you Writer and
it moved against us. No play but it should count.
February 24, 2015 at 1:03 am
#1744
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
It’s Raptor time. Nice.
February 24, 2015 at 1:31 am
#1745
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Different TOR team tonight. They are not going to lose this game. I don’t want a blowout
come the end of the 1st half.
February 24, 2015 at 2:14 am
#1746
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
So here are the questions. Is TOR winning by 12 points? Yes. Are they out playing NO?
Yes. Will TOR sit Kyle and DeMar? Yes. Will they put their Jack Boot on No’s throat
probably not. NO’s getting +1 point means lose by 11 and we cash.
NO’s + 1 point to start the 2nd half.
February 24, 2015 at 2:21 am
#1747
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I was expecting to get TOR + 5.5 points for the 2nd half. The books are a Crafty Lot.
lol. I just think TOR might relax in this game come the 4th qtr. A good solid 8 point
win is good enough.
February 24, 2015 at 3:44 am
#1748
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
PHI gets the job done. Just by a nose. MIN was a let down. So close. New Orleans gets
the 2nd half job done. 1 game left.
February 24, 2015 at 4:17 pm
#1749
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Tues Feb 24 Smart Stat plays.
1 game today. CLE @ DET Over 203.5 (overnight line) and now the line is 205.5 Is their
still any value left betting the over? It would mean buying the line down to 205 or wait
till closer to game time and hop the line drops.
Looks like DET is a SOS WTS play. With the spread sitting at 6.5 I believe folks will
back CLE as the days goes along. I will wait to get DET at + 7 or 7.5
February 24, 2015 at 4:48 pm
#1750
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Agreed. We have to count things straight up or things get complex and tangled and time-
consuming IN A HURRY. At the end of the day, we’re looking for systems where we can say,
“hey, you there, new guy, here is a quick cheat-sheet for your ATS subscription. To win
money using ATS, you have to do this and that.”
We don’t want to set it up where we are saying, “you have to do this and that but then
also this and the other, depending on if this or that is the case and only if this or
that is the other case.”
It’s all about K.I.S.S.
And so far, the Klondike has easily earned the mark. We dont’ have to put the profit
under a microscope. The bet sheets are clear. KLONDIKE EARNS.
February 24, 2015 at 4:59 pm
#1751
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
PHILLY was on the RIGHT SIDE of the hook! As predicted, this system should put us on the
right side of the hook more often than not given that the general betting public
typically favours the chalk and inflates the spread.
Today’s plays:
(SOS 9) DET +9 W 2.5
(SOS 6) IND +5.5 A 1.0
I’m leaving out IND tonight. YES they are +12, but OKL is +6. Also, they’re against the
spread.
I’ll take one from my pile (DET +9) and one from your pile (DET O205.5).
Let’s see what happens here.
To your point about the line move, YES, the sharps bought up and brought up the Over
total spread. True. But that means the sharks feel confident that this goes over. The
only other alternative, McGrath, is that they DON’T buy up the Over, and the line stays
the same, in which case we would know they don’t have confidence in that particular game
covering the total…BUT…you’d get an extra 2 points. So it’s a lose lose no matter how
you look at it when it comes to second guessing which way it lands. Also, I’m not
positive, but if we look at the totals vs the line moves, I don’t think that these games
land up any closer than games where there is no movement. That’s to say, again, damned
if you do, damned if you don’t.
The SmartStat3Star system is now 11-5-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 20-14-1 in the Klondike.
February 24, 2015 at 5:06 pm
#1752
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
We’ll have to look into finding additional systems that work with MLB.
I went 23-2 in 2013 tracking line moves, but when I applied that same system in 2014, it
had catastrophic affects. And given that I didn’t reduce my unit size with my bankroll,
it almost murdered my bottom line. Hopefully we can find something that’s a little more
safe and secure using ATSSTATS and get some PROPER systems discovered that we can bet
on, with confidence, in 2015.
February 24, 2015 at 9:27 pm
#1753
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Another way to look at it is that Sharps wouldn’t be betting the OVER if they thought
that it would be only by 2 points.
Rest easy my friend!
February 25, 2015 at 1:39 am
#1754
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Major League Baseball. I have already been thinking about this. We have to find
something!! On to tonight.
It’s Raptor time. Nice. You know I will be investing on the 2nd half of this game.
3 blue stars indicating the over. Still it is not a Smart Stat play! Stick with the
program! Not having a selection on the side or total makes it easier to pick the 2nd
half winner.
February 25, 2015 at 2:39 am
#1755
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. TOR @ DAL. TOR + 4 points to start the 2nd half.
February 25, 2015 at 2:42 am
#1756
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Nice. I’m sure something will crop up. We’ll find something for early season, and we’ll
find something for mid-late season as well. There must be something that makes sense.
Looks like tonight will be one of the FEW nights were the Klondike lost anything more
than vig.
No biggie. Money management will protect our bottom line in the long run.
February 25, 2015 at 8:51 pm
#1757
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Man what a hard day at work. Just onto my computer right now. Smart Stat plays. 2 plays
today.
NYK @ BOS Over 196.5
PHI @ MIL Under 186
Now both games scare the heck out of me. NYK are not playing well and PHI is playing
well. I wanna flip those O/U’s but we can’t. Still a play is a play. I see because of my
work PHI @ MIL has been bet down to 186 from 189.5 Again is there any value left in the
line? We will see. I bet them both.
February 25, 2015 at 11:53 pm
#1758
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Dammit! I thought I posted earlier but I got SIDETRACTED!!!
We are currently:
The SmartStat3Star system is now 11-5-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 20-14-1 in the Klondike.
DEN 15 +4 A 2.0
ORL 15 +1 A 2.0
DAL 11 +6 A 1.0
LAC 5 +3.5 W 0.5
February 26, 2015 at 12:02 am
#1759
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Apologies McGrath, I meant to have the list out at about 2 this afternoon, but then just
now I saw the tab still open and I realized that I got sidetracted.
February 26, 2015 at 12:22 am
#1760
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I felt guilty myself. I did not get back to my desk until late in the afternoon. Let’s
see how it goes tonight. Pizza night. Yaa.
February 26, 2015 at 6:24 am
#1761
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 12-6-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 20-18-1 in the Klondike.
February 26, 2015 at 4:46 pm
#1762
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Thurs Feb 26 Smart Stat plays.
No plays today. Booo.
Looks like OKC qualifies as SOS ATS (+10) with a line of OKC -4 This line keeps
dropping. Hmm.
February 26, 2015 at 6:50 pm
#1763
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Nothing doing on my side of the fence either.
We have a SOS ATS with OKL at 10 SOS points….I’ll play them at -4.
But it’s not an official SOS WTS play.
Let’s enjoy our day off!
February 27, 2015 at 8:42 pm
#1767
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I posted in the 80% forum by mistake.
Friday Feb 27 Smart Stat plays. 3 plays today.
BRK @ HOU Under 205.5
SAN @ SAC Under 200.5
OKC @ POR Under 206.5
February 27, 2015 at 9:11 pm
#1768
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 12-6-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 20-18-1 in the Klondike.
LOL I thought you might. Sorry about that. Just trying to bring us a few more minds to
break this Klondike wide open.
Busy day today man. And I’m seeing a few additional considerations that I wish I’d
tracked. (every thing you add takes time), but I think I want to start checking results
against ‘L7G vs SOS’ points. It could be that there is an improvement based on betting
the better team that’s L7…or even the one that’s worse L7 SOS…depending…it’s time to
find that out.
SOS WTS Qualifiers:
IND +6 (SOS 6) (LineMove WithThePick 2.5) (L7 SOS vs 45-65)
ORL +12.5 (SOS 11) (LineMove WithThePick 0.5) (L7 SOS vs 46-59)
GSW 0 (SOS 5) (LineMove WithThePick 2.0) (L7 SOS vs 56-52)
LAC +4 (SOS 7) (LineMove AgainstThePick 1.0) (L7 SOS vs 56-57)
DEN +2.5 (SOS 5)(LineMove AgainstThePick 2.5) (L7 SOS vs 36-49)
LAL +4 (SOS 7) (LineMove AgainstThePick 2.0) (L7 SOS vs 41-57)
I’m taking IND at +6 because at a 20 point SOS spread L7G, I suspect that the public
will bite hard on a CLE trapline. (
I’m taking GSW on the back of the favourable 2 point line move.
And I’ll put ORL on as a trifector due to parity owing this system some strong wins.
February 28, 2015 at 1:00 am
#1769
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
It’s Raptor time. Almost the end of the 1st qtr and TOR is down 22-5. PVI is taking it’s
toll on TOR lately. Makes sense.
February 28, 2015 at 1:38 am
#1770
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR down 24 points with 1:00 min to go. Will TOR lose by 23 points. I doubt it. How many
points will the 2nd half spread be?
Time to get the line.
February 28, 2015 at 1:47 am
#1771
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR -4.5 to start the 2nd half. Down by 23 points and then minus -4.5 that means TOR
must lose this game by less than 18.5 points.
February 28, 2015 at 1:53 am
#1772
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR could have not played any worse! Will TOR win this game probably not. Will they lose
by less than 18.5 points… I think so. Full unit on my part.
February 28, 2015 at 3:38 am
#1773
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
No worries! If POR U comes through Klondike would be….
…nope I can’t jinx it man.
February 28, 2015 at 3:43 am
#1774
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
They bailed man.
I hate it when sports teams do that.
When they just conserve themselves and concede a thorough beatdown.
Who is Toronto up against tomorrow, and who did they just play, that they made a
collective decision to bail on the game at half time?
I agree with you, there is NO WAY they would have lost like that if they were TRYING.
They bailed…..the question is…..when and why do teams bail instead of fighting back??I’m
willing to bet that they weren’t playing a team from their division or conference…I
would imagine….for starters. I’d also imagine that they are coming off either a blowout
win or at least a solid 4-2 SU L6G record. This can’t be the hallmark of a team that
feels they need to fight. AFter that…I have no idea…wonder if I’m right about any of it…
February 28, 2015 at 6:17 pm
#1777
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 14-7-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 23-18-1 in the Klondike.
February 28, 2015 at 6:18 pm
#1778
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MIA +5.5 (SOS 9) W 0.5 L7 vs 49-54
DAL -7 (SOS 5) W 1.5 L7 vs 57-37
UTA -2.5 (SOS 17) W 1.5 L7 vs 58-49
Only the SOS WTS will count (MIA +5.5) but the other results could be worth a look too
because the line has moved with the picks and because the SOS strongly favours the picks
L7G vs matchup, as well.
February 28, 2015 at 10:56 pm
#1779
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sat Feb 28 Smart Stat plays.
DET @ WAS Over 195.5 I will buy it down to 195
February 28, 2015 at 11:14 pm
#1780
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I went to place my bets and the DET/WAS game was down to 194.5. I’ll take that.
Also the ATL/MIA game is now off the board. Something must be up.
March 1, 2015 at 5:39 am
#1786
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 14-8-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 25-19-1 in the Klondike.
March 1, 2015 at 5:44 pm
#1787
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Database is a little incomplete right now. Will check back later.
March 1, 2015 at 7:02 pm
#1788
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Updating it now…
March 1, 2015 at 7:35 pm
#1790
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
11:00AM EST is when it generally polls and updates everything. Sometimes it will be
finished before that depending on the lines, but generally 11:00AM EST is the point
where it refreshes everything. If it’s ever not, post here or shoot me a mail, and I’ll
see to it.
March 1, 2015 at 8:08 pm
#1791
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 14-8-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 25-19-1 in the Klondike.
Today’s qualifiers:
LAC +1 (SOS 6) Line moved With the pick 2.0, L7 vs 64-55
LAL +5.5 (SOS 6) Line moved With the pick 2.0, L7 vs 47-57
ORL PK (SOS 12) Line move against the pick 1.5, L7 vs 44-36
I’m going to try to snipe LAL here, McGrath. But all 3 qualify.
I’ll also play whatever the SS3S recommends as well as it’s clear that you’ve found a
platinum pipeline within these Klondike forums.
Also, looking at it, the SOS ATS is gaining ground as well.
So far since a week before we opened the Klondike of tracking NBA…
SOS ATS+WTS combined score: 51-35 In February. 135-89 All Time.
ATS and WTS for this year February: 38-25 WTS, 25-20 ATS
When the line moved WITH the pick from open to afternoon: 21-9
When the line moved AGAINST the pick from open to afternoon: 13-16
So according to the Klondike mine, we can fine tune the SOS system (60% efficiency) by
picking on the picks that are WITH the spread ATS (60% efficiency), and by the ones
where the line moves WITH the pick (70% efficiecny).
BOOYAH!
So We can see that we’re CORRECT to snipe LAL because it’s WTS WTPick but ORL is WTS
ATPick.
We’ll have to wait for L7 vs stats to formulate. But at the end of the day, it might not
be platinum like your system, McGrath, but it’s at least a gold system to be sure.
NOW LET’S GO MAKE THAT … (I won’t jinx it.)
March 1, 2015 at 8:09 pm
#1792
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Correction: When the line moved WITH the pick from open to afternoon: 23-9 ***
March 1, 2015 at 10:37 pm
#1793
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I went out shopping and just got back. Looks like 1 play qualified for a Smart Stat
play. I did not play it.
CLE @ HOU Under 208.5
March 1, 2015 at 11:12 pm
#1794
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Because I feel like I did not do my homework today I will put half a unit on ORL + 1.5
(that line did not budge all day) and the same on the LAL + 4 points.
Regardless what happens in the CLE @ HOU game it should count on the record. Had I not
gone out shopping I would have played that game. I see the LAC covered.
Myself I am just going to kick back not watch any sports and watch 2 good movies
tonight. I am making Meatloaf for dinner tonight. Garlic mashed potatoes. Nice.
I picked up 3 good Dickies shirts for work.
Now baseball. Hmm. Smart Stats only works for basketball. We will have to keep an eye on
starter rotation and talk about juice!! I have always found one needs to forget about
games where the juice is more than – 1.40. Even that is high. It means investing on the
more less popular games for that day.
We still have a little time to come up with something.
March 2, 2015 at 12:06 am
#1795
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I highly recommend a movie called “The Little Death”. I pissed myself laughing the whole
time.
Also, as for MLB, I’m out to lunch as far as how to use ATSSTATS. I’d model it after
hockey which has a similar bet structure, but I don’t know jack about ATS and hockey
either!!
So yeah…
I’m curious if SOS will stand up? It’s quite possible it might based on it dealing
largely with the talent/psychology relationship between teams on hot/cold streaks and
teams that are hungry/complacent.
But we need a few systems each to focus on.
Maybe something from the Raymond Report etc. (when PF and PA are better for one team) or
combos between RR and Forecast/PVI etc etc.
I could post you a cool spreadsheet, but it’s got to do with market study, not ATS.
I want to mine the Klondike and find something that’s dependable year in, year out, per
sport, per time of season.
March 2, 2015 at 12:07 am
#1796
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Just remember that if a system stops working, it could be that it’s the time of year. So
stay flexible and maybe between (hopefully more than) the two of us, we can score some
serious bank this season.
March 2, 2015 at 5:35 pm
#1798
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Monday Mar 2 Smart Stat plays.
GS @ BRK Under 208.5
LAC @ MIN Under 207
No @ DAL Under 197
3 plays today.
March 2, 2015 at 6:44 pm
#1799
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 15-8-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 26-21-1 in the Klondike.
Right side of the hook this time McGrath! Niiiiiice. lol
1-play for today:
NOP +7 (SOS 8) A 0.5 L7 vs 56-34
That said, the system tells me LAC is a good bet too. Although it’s ATS, the line moved
with the pick. So let’s cash on LAC just one more time while it’s still hot. I’ll play
all 5 and hope for 3 to win. 3-2 for the night ain’t half bad!! (crosses fingers)
March 2, 2015 at 6:49 pm
#1800
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
If I’m going to start betting 3-5, I’ll actually need to reduce my unit size…although,
since I was about to increase it…I might be fine where I’m at. I’ll have to calculate my
bankroll. 2.5% to 5% is the going rate depending on the chalk/dog mix that bettors tend
to bet. Also, for me, my unit size is determined by a block size, so each bet size is
different because each block counts as a single unit….it’s weird, but it’s the most
efficient setup I could find after 4 years of research and experience.
March 2, 2015 at 6:50 pm
#1801
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Here are a few good reads if you get the time:
Self Control: atsstats.com/handicapping-and-sports-gambling-101/
Money Management: atsstats.com/handicapping-and-sports-gambling-102/
March 3, 2015 at 1:09 am
#1802
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
My thoughts when it comes to betting NBA totals.
Even though I am happy posting here that GS @ BRK under 208.5 is a Smart Stat play, I
have already bet that game up too 209. Get off that hook. Buy the hook up or down
pending on which way you are betting.
I know folks say buying points is a quick way to the poor house but when it comes to NBA
totals in the 2nd half of the season, in my opinion it is worth it. The next couple of
weeks the NBA totals lines will get much tighter! Win 1 game and it covers your extra
juice for the week.
March 3, 2015 at 1:14 am
#1803
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
If I am risking 1.10 to win 1.00 at my unit size I will gladly risk 1.20
I always look at betting NBA totals as – 1.20 rather than – 1.10
Just get used to it. If you think this is crazy wait till baseball. lol.
March 3, 2015 at 4:50 pm
#1804
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Tues Mar 3rd Smart Stat plays.
No plays today. Boo.
Looks like we have a couple of SOS WTS plays.
March 3, 2015 at 5:52 pm
#1805
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Listen… If I want to bet the Jays in this afternoons game I will. lol. lol.
Looks like they are going to start the game with their opening squad. They won’t be in
very long but maybe just long enough. @ -1.40 I am willing to risk half of that. Go
Jays.
March 3, 2015 at 7:19 pm
#1806
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
TOR has 70% of the action. Taking the action shot of the day for spring training is
always an idea.
I’m a little late to bet, but I would have.
March 3, 2015 at 7:28 pm
#1807
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 16-10-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 26-22-1 in the Klondike.
TOR has 70% of the action. Taking the action shot of the day for spring training is
always an idea.
I’m a little late to bet, but I would have.
LAL +8 (SOS 11) A 0.5 L7 vs 49-43
BOS +12 (SOS 9) W 1.0 L7 vs 49-53
UTA +8.5 (SOS 13) W 0.5 L7 vs 62-58
DEN +5 SOS 13) A 1.0 L7 vs 35-43
March 3, 2015 at 9:31 pm
#1809
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I am on all those plays. Good thing you stayed away from the Jays game. They lost 8-7.
Bases loaded bottom of the 9th and they could not get the tieing run across. Too bad. I
have had enough of baseball already. lol. lol. just kidding.
March 3, 2015 at 9:43 pm
#1810
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
“Bases loaded bottom of the 9th and they could not get the tieing run across.”
Highly addictive in this instance. Plenty of funky endorphines and adrenaline coursing
your veins.
We’ll find something that works with ATS.
March 4, 2015 at 4:03 am
#1811
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
On par for a 3-1 humdinger tonight!
March 4, 2015 at 3:48 pm
#1813
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 16-10-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 29-23-1 in the Klondike.
March 4, 2015 at 8:56 pm
#1815
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s SOS WTS picks:
ORL +3 (SOS 8) A 1.5 L7 vs 43-37
UTA +1 (SOS 6) No Move L7 vs 57-44
POR +3.5 (SOS 6) W 2.0 L7 vs 63-49
DEN +9.5 (SOS 6) W 3.0 L7 vs 33-39
I’ll be sniping POR+UTA
L7 vs is correct 9-11. Not very telling…
L7 vs is correct:
5-10 SOS points is 4-5
10-14 SOS points is 2-1
15-19 SOS points is 0-1
20-24 SOS points is 2-4
25+ SOS points is 1-0
So the sweet spot is in the 10-14 point range.
March 4, 2015 at 9:43 pm
#1816
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Wed MAR 4th Smart Stat plays. 1 play today.
DET @ N.O. Over 195
That’s it. Stuck with the Jays today and got my money back from yesterday. Nice.
March 4, 2015 at 9:45 pm
#1817
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Alright 3 plays all total for today. Locked and loaded.
March 5, 2015 at 4:26 pm
#1819
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 16-11-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 29-24-2 in the Klondike.
March 5, 2015 at 4:30 pm
#1820
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
CORRECTION! (Portland WON!?!?)
The SmartStat3Star system is now 16-11-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 30-23-2 in the Klondike.
March 5, 2015 at 4:38 pm
#1821
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
L7 vs is correct:
5-10 SOS points is 4-7
10-14 SOS points is 3-3
15-19 SOS points is 1-2
20-24 SOS points is 2-4
25+ SOS points is 1-1
SOS L7: 11-17
If this trend continues, we’ll have a new system called the L7 SOS Fade for this time of
year…
March 5, 2015 at 4:42 pm
#1822
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s play:
POR -2.5 (SOS 7) Steady L7 vs 63-59
I’m LOVING the ML stats on this game as well. At such a low spread, I’m highly
encouraged. The fact the SOS L7 stats are near even means that Dallas shouldn’t be super
hungry so that psych advantage shouldn’t be there.
I’m putting POR in my #1 slot at -2.5 ML
March 5, 2015 at 4:44 pm
#1823
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NOTE: Today’s pick is a SOS ATS play and won’t count for the SOS WTS tracking.
March 5, 2015 at 5:45 pm
#1824
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Thurs March 5 Smart Stat plays.
1 play today.
OKC @ CHI Over 199 The line is 199.5 so I am waiting. I think it should hit 199 without
buying it down.
March 5, 2015 at 8:48 pm
#1825
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Pinnacle has it at 199 right now.
March 6, 2015 at 12:04 am
#1826
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I am in at 199.
March 6, 2015 at 12:15 am
#1827
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
This game is going to be close. We will need both teams to uphold their part of the
bargin as it were. It’s funny. Last night we had I think 13 games on tap and Smart Stats
produced 1 play which lost and tonight only 2 games and it produces 1 play. Crazy. That
is why I love Smart Stats.
Now having said that… Smart Stats better smarten up. lol. Stick to the plan. Stay the
course. By the end of this basketball season this 3 star system will produce.
March 6, 2015 at 3:02 am
#1828
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
What do you mean WILL produce?
*IS* producing.
I book with PINNACLE. That means none of the -191 -191 commercial juice garbage.
My book is -195 -195 man.
So basically, a winning record means I earn.
Daily cappers need 5Dimes or Pinnacle. All day. Nothing else.
March 6, 2015 at 3:03 am
#1829
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Your system is KILLING it. Even mine is still up a few units. This is exactly what every
ATS customer should be involved with. This is what every sports gambler should be doing.
March 6, 2015 at 3:18 am
#1830
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Winner winner chicken dinner! Let’s go Portland!! Win by a TRE and we’re all set…
March 6, 2015 at 3:18 am
#1831
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Is it just me or is this forum winning night after night after night?
Nope. Not just me. Numbers don’t lie!
March 6, 2015 at 6:48 am
#1832
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 17-11-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 31-23-2 in the Klondike.
March 6, 2015 at 4:08 pm
#1833
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Fri Mar 6th Smart Stat plays.
SAC @ ORL Over 202
UTH @ PHI Under 185
2 plays for today and it is Friday. Yaaaaa.
March 6, 2015 at 5:56 pm
#1835
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
ORL +1 (SOS 7) W 1.0 L7 vs 47-47
LAL +12.5 (SOS 9) W 1.0 L7 vs 48-57
DEN +13 (SOS 9) W 1.5 L7 vs 40-49
CHA +1 (SOS 18) A 0.5 L7 vs 56-35
MIA +4 (SOS 16) A 1.0 L7 vs 56-29
DAL +9 (SOS 11) A 1.0 L7 vs 59-51
March 6, 2015 at 5:57 pm
#1836
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
5 plays today:
ORL O202
PHI U185
ORL +1
LAL +12.5
DEN +13
March 6, 2015 at 6:33 pm
#1837
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
My money management has room for traditional handicapping. Playing these systems
indicates to me that I might need to fine tune my system for more even units.
If you’re not picking and choosing games based on injuries, road stands, wl streaks etc
etc….if you’re playing an ATS system….1 unit across the board with almost on exceptions
should probably be the way to go because there is no more or less chance of any one game
winning/losing than the next.
What do you think McGrath?
March 6, 2015 at 8:55 pm
#1838
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
That’s what I do. If we are playing 5 games tonight we have to bet the same amount on
each game. I know from history that if you bet more on one game and less on another the
game you bet less on will be the game that wins and you go to bed a loser even though
you went 1-1 and should have only lost the juice. Betting different amounts on different
games will kill you psychologically.
March 6, 2015 at 8:56 pm
#1839
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
All bets are in. It would be nice if 3 Star and SOS WTS both hit at the same time. Maybe
tonight will be the night!
March 6, 2015 at 9:48 pm
#1840
Reply
Bon
Hey there, I’m new here and the short forms used are quite confusing to me. Could
someone give me a detailed description of all the shortforms here?
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
ORL +1 (SOS 7) W 1.0 L7 vs 47-47
LAL +12.5 (SOS 9) W 1.0 L7 vs 48-57
DEN +13 (SOS 9) W 1.5 L7 vs 40-49
CHA +1 (SOS 18) A 0.5 L7 vs 56-35
MIA +4 (SOS 16) A 1.0 L7 vs 56-29
DAL +9 (SOS 11) A 1.0 L7 vs 59-51
I get:
Orlando +1 (SOS??? 7?) spread move 1 with? Last 7 ? Vs 47-47?
Question marks indicate im not 100% sure what they mean!
If someone could let me know that would be awesome. Thanks
March 6, 2015 at 10:47 pm
#1841
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Hay Bon welcome aboard. No hatters here. Just a couple of guys trying to increase our
bankrolls. I will let Mr. Writer explain his system with regards to SOS. Quickly he is
using the Strength of Schedule part of the database to find games Where a team has a +5
or more rating that is also getting points or WTS with the spread. You do this for every
game.
As an example… TOR @ CHA tonight. Go to the SOS section of the database and compare
TOR’s last 14 games to their last 7 games SOS. Tonight TOR is a minus 11 points and CHA
is a +9 points. This makes CHA a + 20’points. We are not talking about the actual point
spread we are referring to each teams SOS strength. Mr. Writer has uncovered there is an
advantage to the team with the better SOS AND getting points for that games. CHA is -1
point for tonight’s game. CHA is laying the points tonight. If they were getting points…
It would automatically become a play. You do this for every game. Look for games where a
team has the better SOS number and is getting points in that game.
Glad to see someone else joining our little secret forum. All comments are welcome.
March 6, 2015 at 11:25 pm
#1843
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
That’s a better SOS number BY more 5 points or more. That’s important!
March 6, 2015 at 11:58 pm
#1844
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
It’s Raptor time. I lost my last two Raptor 2nd half plays. I have stayed away from the
last 3 games. Perhaps tonight a small insignificant hardly worth mentioning 2nd half
play is in order for tonight. lol. I mean really. lol. It’s good practice for the
playoffs.
March 7, 2015 at 12:53 am
#1845
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR -2 points to start the 2nd half.
March 7, 2015 at 12:56 am
#1846
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
This means TOR has to lose this game by less than 9 points. I will take that.
March 7, 2015 at 2:04 am
#1847
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR does not get the 2nd half job done. Too bad.
Always live too fight another day.
March 7, 2015 at 2:55 am
#1848
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OK Bon, let’s look at a single example. For more explanation, scroll to the very top
where these systems are explained in detail:
LAL +12.5 (SOS 9) W 1.0 L7 vs 48-57
LAL = Los Angeles Lakers Pick.
+12.5 = Spread at the line opening according to PINNACLE (the only book for pros)
(SOS 9) = The difference between team A’s L14 and L7 SOS rating, subtracted from the
difference between team B’s L14 and L7 SOS ratings.
W 1.0 = Line moved WITH the pick from open until middayish (+11.5).
L7 vs 48-57 = Each teams L7G with the pick being the first number, and the opponent
being the other team’s SOS rating.
All of these have significance and are explained through the threads. If you briefly
skim read, it’s really not at all a long read.
The reason we’re banking on this system, is because it works, and this post proves
exactly how and why.
Any other questions, PLEASE ASK!
Thanks for stopping in!
March 7, 2015 at 7:38 am
#1849
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Did we just go 5-0. Did we just sweep the board tonight! Nice.
March 7, 2015 at 12:40 pm
#1850
Reply
Bon
Thank you very much for the detailed explanation! Looks like your picks did pretty well
last night haha. One last question: How do you determine a teams SOS? Or is that from
your database and not able to be shared?
As for the Raptors, I’m not sure what’s wrong with them lately. They haven’t looked like
a playoff team, not even in the East! Lol
March 7, 2015 at 3:45 pm
#1852
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS is just one section of ATSSTATS. There is the PVI section, the Raymond Report, the
Matchups Stars (fan favourite), the ATS database, and the ATS Forecast. (Along with line
moves and other knick knacks like hot trends etc.)
Yes, SOS is part in parcel with a subscription.
March 7, 2015 at 4:07 pm
#1854
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
It burns my britches that a few days before we started tracking SOS system went 6-0, but
then the day after we started tracking there was a 0-5 skunk. I really wish the record
could officially reflect that 6-0 streak! We’ll just have to replace it I guess!
March 7, 2015 at 4:13 pm
#1855
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 19-11-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 34-23-2 in the Klondike.
March 7, 2015 at 4:44 pm
#1856
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s Qualifiers:
NOP +1 (SOS 8) A 0.5 L7 vs 56-54
PHX +10.5 (SOS 9) A 0.5 L7 vs 54-59
WSH +3.5 (SOS 9) A 1.0 L7 vs 35-34
I worry about PHX being a trap…but then again, they’ve come storming back in the last 2
weeks. It could be that the public has been slow to catch up, particularly with them
face Cleveland. Let’s check the bet record and see which of these is in play. (CLE=60%)
and (PHX=40%).
So it’s the case that the public is slow to catch up. I think PHX is pure value today
and we don’t have to worry about the trap line. (usually trap lines will force the
betting action on the “steal” pick…so PHX looks safish.)
Given the BlueStars with MIL and the low spread…MIL qualifies as a Low Spread ML pick in
the other system, but that said, SOS has trumped that this time of year…so I’m laying
off.
NOP is worth a look too.
My bet today will be PHX.
March 7, 2015 at 5:12 pm
#1857
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sat Mar 7th Smart Stat plays.
IND @ NYK Under 189.5
POR @ MIN Over 199
All bets are in.
N.O. +1.5
PHO +11
WAS +4.5
Make it or break it type of night.
March 7, 2015 at 6:43 pm
#1858
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OK I’ve restructured my money management for what we’re doing here. I had a pro-setup,
but it applied to sniping picks, not so much to ATS systems.
I’m rocking all 5 tonight too. RIDE OR DIE. KLONDIKE FOR LIFE.
March 7, 2015 at 6:44 pm
#1859
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Note: I will be betting 1/10th my unit size when it comes to the theoretical MLB systems
that we’ll be trying. Just enough to wet my beak…but that’s about it. I have no interest
in risk and I was not born to make books rich.
March 7, 2015 at 6:47 pm
#1860
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Depending how many people are involved, the way I see it, in about 3 years from now, we
should have a system to play for every sport no matter the time of season.
Can’t wait for NCAAF though. I have a wicked system that I call the “Low Spread Matchup
Stars System.” It connected at near 66% this year and it stayed rock solid the whole
season.
March 8, 2015 at 4:02 am
#1863
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Another Great night. I’ll take 4-1 all day long.
March 8, 2015 at 2:23 pm
#1864
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Yup. Lemme go haul some snow and get at today’s picks.
March 8, 2015 at 2:23 pm
#1865
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sun Mar 8th Smart Stat plays.
CHI @ SAN Under 191 – I wanted to get this play in early as the line is dropping fast.
Last night it was 193.5
UTH @ BRK Under 187.5
It’s early and I am waiting for the database to be completed. 3 games to check yet.
March 8, 2015 at 3:13 pm
#1867
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
In the name of staying static, I’ll just take the opening lines.
Klondike vs Vegas.
I’m already tracking Line moves W/A so I have that data as well.
March 8, 2015 at 3:21 pm
#1868
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 21-11-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 36-24-2 in the Klondike.
Today’s Qualifiers:
CHA +1 (SOS 14) Even L7 vs 58-39
LAL +6.5 (SOS 16) A 1.0 L7 vs 50-52
March 8, 2015 at 3:42 pm
#1869
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Nice, I am on them both. Got LAL’s + 7 points. So I was reading RR’s 50 secrets of
sports betting book and I thought I would paste this.
# 24.Daytona’s Baseball Slaughter Plays: Back in the day when I had my sports betting
forum up, we had a sports bettor from New Jersey name Daytona who use to keep track of
what was known as his “Slaughter plays”. In this system, watch out for home teams who
have won by 7 points or more. Play them in the following game. The system is based on
playing a team who’s in an offensive hitting zone. In fact, I ran this system on my
database and realized that the Yankees are hitting 74%. During the last 5 years, when
the NY YANKEES play as a home team and have won the last game by 7 runs or more, they
are 40-14 SU in the next game.
Something to keep an eye on.
March 8, 2015 at 4:13 pm
#1870
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I have found this site is great for baseball starting lineups. baseball press.com. Quick
and fast and accurate!
March 8, 2015 at 4:32 pm
#1871
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I am going to risk a half unit on the Blue Jays today. Televised game. I will be
watching the CHI @ SAN NBA game and maybe bet the 2nd half.
You know it is funny. We are mining the database and posting winners! Why would anyone
join the database when they can get these plays for free just by clicking forums. Well
anyways… I have a stuffed pork roast and a 12 pack. Nothing to do now but kick back and
enjoy sports. Nice.
March 8, 2015 at 6:03 pm
#1872
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. CHI + 0.5 points to start the 2nd half. Bulls down by 18. I have to imagine SAN
will slow down a bit here in the 2nd half. Spread 9.5 and SAN should win comfortably by
14 or 15 points. I will risk a half unit that the Bulls lose by less than 18.5 points.
SAN Is out playing CHI right now. CHI has too many injuries. I will give them credit…
they are playing with heart in this game. SAN resting some players come the 4th and
Garbage time might just keep this under 18 points.
March 8, 2015 at 6:20 pm
#1873
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sorry that is CHI won’t lose by more than 18 points.
March 8, 2015 at 7:13 pm
#1874
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well Smart Stats takes the lost. It happens. I get half of it back with CHI losing by 11
points, well under the 18.
Up next. LAC @ G.S. No investment for this game. Just watch and bet the 2nd half.
I see CHA is now the Fav in this game vs DET. I am never sure how I feel about this kind
of line flip flop.
March 8, 2015 at 7:36 pm
#1875
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
March 8, 2015 at 8:22 pm
#1876
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. LAC @ G.S. G.S. – 2 points to start the 2nd half. That’s a half point more than the
spread. Still I will take it. Full unit on my part.
March 9, 2015 at 1:50 pm
#1878
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Mon Mar 9th Smart Stat plays.
NYK @ DEN Under 203.5
2 games still to check.
March 9, 2015 at 4:13 pm
#1879
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 21-13-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 37-25-2 in the Klondike.
Perfect example. I gat LAL at 7.5 last night and it hooked the books who had the line at
+7. But the line open was at +6.5
So in the forums, this pick will get documented as a LOSS due to the open being +6.5,
but my bet still clears.
March 9, 2015 at 5:08 pm
#1881
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s picks:
NOP +1.5 (SOS 10) Even (L7 vs 55-46 )
PHX +5 (SOS 14) Even (L7 vs 53-55)
March 9, 2015 at 9:44 pm
#1883
Reply
Bon
Hey guys,
I’ve decided to follow along daily and also do a teaser bet with each of your selections
daily for a 1/2 unit. Good luck tonight everyone!
March 10, 2015 at 1:15 pm
#1884
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 22-14-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 38-26-2 in the Klondike.
March 10, 2015 at 2:15 pm
#1885
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Tues Mar 10th Smart Stat plays.
TOR @ SAN Under 206
Only one play today so far. 1 game still to check. Let’s hope TOR continues to struggle
tonight.
Get on board Bon. Glad to have ya.
March 10, 2015 at 2:33 pm
#1886
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
PVI shows TOR has a 59% chance of this game going under. SAN has a 56% chance of this
game going under. That’s an overall 58% chance of this game going under. With a
projected score of TOR 97.69 and SAN 106.12 for a total of 203.81
Today’s game is the highest PVI rated game to go under out of all 6 games.
March 10, 2015 at 3:42 pm
#1888
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Exactly call with the PVI. We could start and track a new theoretical system if you
propose the parameters?
Today’s SOS WTS play(s):
LAL +2 (SOS 12) A 0.5 (L7 vs 41-35)
March 10, 2015 at 3:54 pm
#1889
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Should read: Excellent call with the PVI*
March 10, 2015 at 9:51 pm
#1890
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
It’s tough when it comes to PVI. Often times Smart Stats recommends a play but it is
nowhere near the top PVI play for that night. I just like it when Smart Stats and PVI
are working together. The more ducks in a row the better.
March 10, 2015 at 10:03 pm
#1891
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I waited and got LAL +3.5. Hot chicken wing for me tonight. Ohh and by the way if I
decide to take the Raptors in the 2nd half tonight… Someone please slap me upside the
head. lol. lol.
March 11, 2015 at 3:37 pm
#1893
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Wed Mar 11th Smart Stat plays.
CHI @ PHI Under 188
LAC @ OKC Over 209
DET @ GS Under 205
Several more games to check.
March 11, 2015 at 4:29 pm
#1895
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
That’s it for today as far as Smart Stats.
March 11, 2015 at 5:01 pm
#1896
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS WTS Qualifiers:
BKY +4.5 (SOS 6) W 1.5 (L7 vs 47-46)
BOS +4.5 (SOS 7) A 0.5 (L7 vs 60-56)
LAC +6.5 (SOS 9) Even (L7 vs 56-51)
DEN +7.5 (SOS 9) W 0.5 (L7 vs 50-62)
7 plays today! Whoa!
This is a new Klondike record.
Can we run it today McGrath? Can we run the board?
Let’s throw our net out and see what comes back.
March 11, 2015 at 5:58 pm
#1898
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I know 7 plays. Gulp. Let’s hope the Gambling Gods are kind too us.
March 12, 2015 at 12:06 am
#1899
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
We’re not out there flipping coins brother. The gods giveth and they taketh away…but
when it comes to us…and NBA…and the 2nd half of the season…they seem to give us a little
more than they do most other people.
ATSSTATS can definitely be a money maker. It’s just a matter of understanding whenever
they’re strong in whichever sport.
And that’s what we’re here for.
There has to be something with MLB that we can work out. 2 weeks to formulate some
theoretical stats to track.
March 12, 2015 at 12:06 am
#1900
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
theoretical systems*
March 12, 2015 at 12:35 am
#1901
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I actually find it hard to sit down and watch BB games. WAY too many times a team will
be up 10-15-20 points in the first half and then come back to slay in the 2nd. Hard to
watch sometimes. I might watch the 4th if a game is close…but other than that….tough to
watch sometimes.
March 12, 2015 at 2:53 am
#1903
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Well? We’re good to go. We’re out of the woods. We earned tonight.
GSW is a little closer to the total than I feel comfortable with after the 1st
quarter……but there is a chance that they slow the pace down…a lot.
Either way, GSW is nothing but icing. We already have the cake.
Great job out there tonight!
March 12, 2015 at 3:37 am
#1904
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
3rd quarter is on pace for a slow one Let’s see if this happens for us…
March 12, 2015 at 4:25 am
#1905
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice. lol. I only got GSW at 205 so I was DAMN HAPPY at
the last 2 minutes of that game. Real close. Real cool. Real good.
March 12, 2015 at 4:28 am
#1906
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
After yesterday: The SmartStat3Star system is now 22-15-1 in the Klondike. The SOS WTS
system is now 39-26-2 in the Klondike.
After today: The SmartStat3Star system is now 24-16-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 42-27-2 in the Klondike.
SOS system is almost perfectly on par with the sample I took in ’13.
Same sport.
Same time of season.
In the words of Don Cherry … “BEAUTY!!”
March 12, 2015 at 4:30 am
#1907
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SS3S: 59.45%
SOS WTS: 60.86%
March 12, 2015 at 4:41 am
#1908
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I feel like for MLB…looking at OAKLAND last year, (predicted to be a winner, and ended
up failing hard due to a slew of injuries), that we should define what a “healthy” team
is.
Also, due to KCR, a team that was a sleeper out the gate but then became blessed with a
late season mojo that lasted them through the championship…that teams on “hot streaks”
should have some consideration as well. If I’m not mistaken, Baltimore was another team
like that too in terms of playing really good ball in streaks.
When we look at Toronto…there is another case to go along with how teams can just flunk
hard and cool right off when they’re not on their game.
I’m thinking that MLB might be a very tough sport to diagnose theoretical systems with
and we may be forced to combine ATS with other considerations.
(I have about 20 hot links anywhere from umpires to pitch FX which highlights pitchers’
‘go to’ pitches and where they pitch them (outside, down low, inside etc). I tried
combining that with umpires’ strike zones last year and it was tough…but I was going off
of ML not OU, and also I didn’t account for the bullpens (tough to account for)).
So…
At the end of the day, I’d rather just find some spots in the ATS database that make
sense, but the way the pitchers rotate…..I mean…..ATSStats can’t really comment too
well. Not like football and basketball and hockey. A different pitcher for 6 innings and
up to 4-5 different closers for another 3 is EXTREMELY dynamic.
In fact, I’m curious if the HITS column (.avg) might be the strongest consideration?
The batters are the only thing that’s the same. So maybe in MLB it’s more about capping
for the batting?
Lastly, last year I had some success with Fanduel. I would take the teams that vegas
gave the highest totals and picked from those games. But the success was somewhat
negligible. Very risky.
So I don’t know, that’s a little bit to think about anyway…..
Whatever we do, we’ll need to each track a few different systems because we’ll have to
dump one or the other, or start maybe even fading them halfway through depending….
What do you think guys?
How best to skin this MLB cat?
March 12, 2015 at 2:53 pm
#1909
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
We will figure something out for baseball.
Thur Mar 12 Smart Stat plays.
MIL @ IND Under 186 This line is slowly moving up so I am going to wait. I think most
people will just bet the over because it is such a small total.
Man that was close last night. When the CHI game went into OT and BRK failing I thought
Oh No… here we go but in the end things worked out nicely for us. Great Job.
How about you Bon…You still hanging in there.
March 12, 2015 at 5:18 pm
#1910
Reply
Bon
Yep! I’m still checking in every afternoon to see what you guys have to say. I wish I
could add something to the conversations but I’m pretty new to the gambling scene and I
don’t have any theories/systems for any sport yet. I’ve been working on one in NHL using
Fenwick and Corsi. It had about a 60% success rate but because the lines in hockey are
rarely even money, it was just breaking even. Then my laptop had a hissy fit and stopped
working lol. When I get a new laptop I’ll continue attempting different systems for each
sport. MLB seems like it would be the most difficult because there’s so much to take
into account (starting pitcher, bullpen, starting lineup, pinch hitters, hitters park?,
weather, umpire, etc
March 12, 2015 at 6:56 pm
#1911
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Bon, here are a few things you need to know about gambling. Do not pass go. Do not
collect 200.
Without these links, pack it in right now. You can’t earn money. If you learn to master
and control these ideas…you have a shot.
atsstats.com/handicapping-and-sports-gambling-101/
atsstats.com/handicapping-and-sports-gambling-102/
March 12, 2015 at 8:13 pm
#1914
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
The Mil @ IND total finally hit 188. I’m on that.
Don’t we have 3 SOS WTS plays today Mr. Writer?
March 12, 2015 at 8:34 pm
#1915
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Sorry I was late on the draw…let’s see if we can’t find something here to bet on…
March 12, 2015 at 9:27 pm
#1916
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Sorry I’m late!
Today’s Pick:
NYK +7.5 (SOS 11) W 1.0 (L7 vs 40-35)
March 12, 2015 at 11:23 pm
#1917
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I got them at 189.5, but I’m nervous because that’s moving the wrong way. I suspect
sharp money on the OVER and I anticipate that we both lose this wager.
Also, yes there are 3 SOS plays, but only one of them is SOS WTS.
Remember, I’m taking the line open according to pinnacle as the benchmark instead of
winging it with where the line is at.
In this way, as I track the line moves WITH x.x and AGAINST x.x, there is some static
meaning behind that, where, if I were to go by where the line moved to at whatever time
I happen to check…then there would be no static benchmark.
So that’s the entire explanation. That said, feel free to bet the ATS picks because they
are also winning over time as well, but WTS seems to have a slight edge.
March 12, 2015 at 11:25 pm
#1918
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
BRUTAL start to that Indiana game man.
I already ripped up my ticket lol.
March 13, 2015 at 12:55 pm
#1919
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
After today: The SmartStat3Star system is now 24-17-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 43-27-2 in the Klondike.
March 13, 2015 at 3:34 pm
#1921
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Geeeeeez Another huge day….but at least the line is moving the right way….
I hate big overhead, I hate big ticket days, but at the end of the day, when you’re
playing a system, whether these instances occur once a day or across the span of a year,
it’s the exact same difference.
The numbers say that this makes money, and so I have to go with that.
What sense does it make to suss out an algorithm and then ignore the results?
In this time of the NBA season, the SOS system is a banger, so let’s bang!
CHA +1 (SOS 6) W 1.0 (L7 vs 48-52)
MIA +5.5 (SOS 8) W 0.5 (L7 vs 50-37)
MIN +11 (SOS 10) W 1.0 (L7 vs 37-43)
LAC +2.5 (SOS 9) Even (L7 vs 59-45)
DEN +8 (SOS 12) W 1.5 (L7 vs 53-61)
March 13, 2015 at 3:44 pm
#1922
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
When the spread is 20 or more, the higher SOS value is losing 7-11.
When the spread is 4 or less, the higher SOS value is winning 8-3.
You would think that the team with the massive SOS advantage would be winning more with
the higher spreads…but there are 2 things that I think are at play here:
1. These differences are obvious and most bettors will ride the “hot” team, therefore
forcing Vegas to open with inflated lines. (ex. They would normally open at -5 but
knowing the public will crunch the line, they open at -11 instead.)
2. High SOS spreads couldn’t better illustrate a team that is hungry and desperate vs a
team that is comfortable and complacent.
We see it all the time, especially in hockey. It’s always a <50% team that stops the 6W
streak of a top 3 team in the league. Time and time again we see the same theme to where
it can only be explained by hungry vs not hungry psychology of top teams facing bottom
teams.
March 13, 2015 at 3:47 pm
#1923
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Yikes, 3 plays today. SMART Stats.
CHI @ CHA Under 189.5
MIN @ OKC Over 210.5
LAC @ DAL Over 202.5
Another BIG day here at ATSStats. I agree. I hate having so much overhead but I agree
with you. What’s the point if we don’t follow tru tonight. If we are going to play 1
then we might as well play them all. Gulp.
March 13, 2015 at 4:37 pm
#1924
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The only point I’d add to that is my experience with shifty systems that change
depending on the time of season.
You know what McGrath? There is a certain vibe that you and I feel right now. It’s a
winning vibe. A consistent, solid, strong, winning vibe.
If that had been shaken in 3 of our last 5 days, or something like that, then I would
consider that the tides are changing and I would possibly be getting off this horse.
I saw it happen in NBA this last year with the Low Spread Blue/Red Star system. The
consideration put me at a 17-1 record between NCAAF and NBA. But then in January, it
completely flipped in the NBA. I mean, if I had stayed on the horse, I’d have given back
every dime I earned.
So the idea that, “it’s been bad for a while, it owes us some wins,” makes absolutely NO
SENSE in the context of what we’re doing. As seasons turn, factors change and those
changes may very well void what worked at one point.
But this is not that. We are winning. This system is not showing any signs of breaking,
we’re not expanding our filters to create more games for our gambling addiction needs,
we’re not doing anything wrong man.
The last time we had a big ticket day, it turned out extremely well, and there is no
reason that this shouldn’t be a pay day too.
That said…
I feel exactly what you’re feeling which is EXPERIENCE.
We may very well get rocked tonight…very well…
But it’s not because we’re doing things wrong.
It’s just that we know how it can (not) work sometimes!!
Frankly? I’ll be happy with a 4-4 vig tax day.
I say that only because it’s so much better than a very possible skunk.
Keep ’em crossed, and I’ll check back a little later.
Something tells me I’ll be posting here realtime tonight. This is a huge night.
The biggest night we’ve had so far.
March 13, 2015 at 7:48 pm
#1925
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I will be hear all night. I see GS is resting their starters tonight and the line now is
DEN -2 points. It will be fun to see how this game pans out.
March 13, 2015 at 8:04 pm
#1926
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
They’re not taking action on the KCR game! Dang! I wanted to cash in on that. Oh well. I
think there’ll be plenty of opportunity to bet KCR games this season. San Diego Padres
looks promising…Cincinnati as well.
He McGrath, Here are all of my MLB resources. Keep in mind, the more filters we need to
make our picks, the harder it will be. Also, in some instances, there is nothing but
light grey and dark grey considerations. That said, take a look if you want, and see if
you like anything…
Where to watch live games: www.strikeout.co/
Probable Pitchers: mlb.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers/index.jsp?c_id=mlb
Umpires’ Strike Zones!!: www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php
Pitchers’ Strike Zones!!: pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/
Stadium Stats/Weather Reports: www.baseball-weather.com/
Batting Stats (.OPS): mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?
c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#statType=hitting&elem=%5Bobject+Object
%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&
%23167%3BionType=sp&page=1&ts=1397748781729&season=2014&season_type=ANY&playerType=QUALI
FIER&sportCode=%27mlb%27&league_code=%27MLB%27&split=&team_id=&active_sw=&game_type=
%27R%27&position=&page_type=SortablePlayer&sortOrder=%27desc
%27&sortColumn=ops&results=&perPage=50&timeframe=&last_x_days=&extended=0§ionType=st
In depth stats: www.thespread.com/mlb-baseball-matchups
More stats: www.covers.com/sports/mlb/mlb_main.aspx
Stadium Orientation/Weather Reports: cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?
p=817783
Pitching Stats: www.thespread.com/mlb-baseball-pitching-pitcher-
stats#.UfgB0G1s4po
Pitch Types: www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Pitches
Pitch Types: www.thecompletepitcher.com/different_baseball_pitches.htm
The market: www.thespread.com/mlb-baseball-public-betting-chart
Umpire Rotation: www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp
Umpire Stats: www.oddsshark.com/mlb/umpire-handicapping-statistics.com/index.jsp
Umpire Stats: www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp
Umpire Stats: www.thelogicalapproach.com/umpire_2013_website.htm
Umpire Stats: mlb.mlb.com/index.jsp
Official news: mlb.mlb
Price Shopping: www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/
March 13, 2015 at 8:05 pm
#1927
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I’m really getting the sense that late-seasons NBA has some fairly accurate line-move
predictors. The last time I tallied, line moves were about 70% accuracy within the SOS
system.
March 13, 2015 at 8:06 pm
#1928
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Get your Dill Pickle SPITZ man! SDP LIVE!
March 13, 2015 at 8:10 pm
#1929
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Make sure you install a popup blocker if you want to watch the games online.
March 13, 2015 at 8:13 pm
#1930
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Hold tight, Padres have done well vs Shoemaker….let’s see what happens.
March 13, 2015 at 8:15 pm
#1931
Reply
Bon
Is Denver at -2 a play tonight or did that line move too much?
March 13, 2015 at 8:26 pm
#1932
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Hmmm… +1 to -1 is only 1 point. So it’s a 2 point move.
Let me grab the tally on this… 1 sec….
March 13, 2015 at 8:32 pm
#1933
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Looks like 2 point moves are 13-7. That’s on par with any other value.
A move is a move. I think what you see is the Sharp money moving the line, and then you
see people touting the pick which the public then picks up to ride the pick and move the
line even further.
It’s like I was telling McGrath, Bon, you can either:
A) Take a few points and fade the Sharp money
*OR*
B) You can follow the sharp money, and give up a few points.
I can see the case for both, but to me, I’ve made my choice with “B” because t he
numbers seem to indicate that Sharps don’t typically bet teams that are supposed to win
by 1 basket. They try to bet locks. YES sometimes it comes to within a basket, but the
sharps usually have a good bead on things and riding them is highly advantageous when
we’re talking about SOS system qualifiers.
March 13, 2015 at 8:48 pm
#1934
Reply
Bon
Okay thank you, I went with option A. We’ll see how it turns out!
Question: What do I get if I become a member? I see there’s a members area, but as a
non-paying guest I notice I get access to this forum and I can see some (all?) of your
ATS picks through twitter. I’m just curious what else I would be receiving if I became a
member!
March 13, 2015 at 9:02 pm
#1935
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Membership Includes:
Raymond Report
PVI
SOS
Regular Database
Super Database
Smart Database
80% Club
Streaks Reports (good to make sure you’re not fading a strong team)
ATS Forecast
Line Moves
Access To Professional Touts
All of these deal with real stats and real trends.
All of these have a place in the conversation.
There is gold here, McGrath and I have proven it, it’s just a matter of testing and
finding out what works.
But the REAL thing that a membership would bring you? You could start testing
theoretical system YOURSELF and share them with the forums when you find them!!
This way, with enough people, NO MATTER THE SPORT…NO MATTER THE TIME OF SEASON….we are
absolutely guaranteed to have a PROVEN ATS system that earns money that we can all bet.
Depending how much your unit size is, this forum has already paid for a year long
subscription.
I think you should join on, officially, as the 3rd Klondike minor.
Me, McGrath, and you will make this thing bigger and better.
March 13, 2015 at 9:03 pm
#1936
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I forgot the best one… ATS Matchups. That’s definitely a fan favorite.
March 13, 2015 at 9:04 pm
#1937
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Here man, try this out…(I highly recommend 5Dimes or Pinnacle):
phoenixsports.com/sportsbook/
March 13, 2015 at 9:19 pm
#1938
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
2 point swing. The line went from DEN +7.5 to DEN -2
GS is resting all of their starters!!
March 13, 2015 at 9:29 pm
#1939
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Hay Bon. After you have re-uped your account enough times and after you get tired of
making your own picks and losing again and again you will finally find the value of
having access to a database. We don’t win every night but at least we are betting with
the numbers in our favor. We are doing the right thing. I used to go to bed thinking WHY
did I bet that side or total. Am I ever an idiot!!!!!!! At least now when I lose a game
I go to bed knowing I did the right thing. I was betting into favorable situations and
numbers. I sleep a lot better. The database will produce enough games on it’s own so you
don’t have to guess at which games to bet on. After awhile you won’t be able to talk
about a game with your friends until you check the database first!!
March 13, 2015 at 9:41 pm
#1940
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I would pass on the game Bon. Either you got DEN at + 7.5 or 7 or pass on it.
March 13, 2015 at 9:53 pm
#1941
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I disagree with McGrath. When the line moved WITH the totals pick the other day, we BOTH
cashed despite the 2-3 points difference.
When the line moved AGAINST the totals pick a few nights ago…the total was WAY over by
about 25 points.
So at the end of the day, the sharp money is the way to go.
Taking a few points one way or another makes sense when there isn’t sharp money
involved, ie. price shopping.
But taking a few points while looking Vegas sharps in the face and fading them…well…
that’s ballsy, but moreover, the numbers don’t lie for NBA this time of year. SOS line
moves are STRONG.
This was from about a week ago, and it has NOT slowed down!
*** When the line moved WITH the pick from open to afternoon: 23-9 ***
The line move is CORRECT 14-8 when moving WITH the pick, L22 picks.
March 13, 2015 at 9:54 pm
#1942
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
In other news, I’m well on my way to winning my first MLB bet this season!! 7-2 Padres
top of 7.
Lots of ball left….but maybe just maybe….
March 13, 2015 at 10:27 pm
#1943
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
SDP should win this. You got it. I have noticed over the years whenever I have a good
amount on one night of games, if I cook a Top Sirloin Steak and mashed potatoes things
turn out great. So I actually stopped on my way home from work and picked up a nice
looking steak. Just covering all he bases. lol. lol.
March 13, 2015 at 10:54 pm
#1944
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well here we go. Big night tonight. It’s Show Time.
March 13, 2015 at 11:32 pm
#1945
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Watching MIA @ TOR. Looks like a chess match. Slow play but lots of fouls. O/U bettors
are already sweating this game. lol. Not us. Every time I see a slow game it’s better to
have taken the points.
March 14, 2015 at 1:56 am
#1946
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
That’s funny that you bring it up man!
I have a certain pair of shorts and shirt and coffee mug that I SWEAR win more often
than others. lol.
March 14, 2015 at 1:58 am
#1947
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Things are looking tedious on the BB front man!
Cmon OKL!!!! REST YOUR STARTERS!!!!!!
March 14, 2015 at 2:00 am
#1948
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
And yes, I don’t know anything about 10 point moves.
1-2-3-4…I stick with it. Good effect.
7-8-9-10…hmmmmm. Could be tough. That might be too much.
March 14, 2015 at 2:04 am
#1949
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
When the line moves with the pick, 3 or more points, 7-5 the original line.
A few of those could be on the border, half of those on the wrong side of the border…so
it’s almost a non-consideration. I don’t think that there is no particular meaning
there….but that’s all 3 and 4. I didn’t see anything 5 or more point move…so…
March 14, 2015 at 2:31 am
#1950
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Well Mc?
It could have been a lot worse!!
If DEN wins, then SDP will have covered the vig. If DEN and CIN wins, then I’ll be up
about 1/3 to 1/2 unit.
That could have been tons of money down the tubes.
Your totals system really saved the units that my SOS system earned us this past week
Now THIS is a partnership I can get behind!! LOL
(high five)
March 14, 2015 at 2:31 am
#1951
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Seriously man. Too cool.
Too…
…COOL!
March 14, 2015 at 4:08 am
#1952
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I’ll see if I can’t save us the money that we made today, tomorrow!!
March 14, 2015 at 1:29 pm
#1953
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I fell asleep last night. You were right about DEN. I’m happy going 4-4. I hope we
don’t have that many plays tonight. lol. Man that’s scary.
March 14, 2015 at 3:13 pm
#1954
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sat Mar 14th Smart Stat plays.
BRK @ PHI Under 195
NYK @ GS Under 202.5
A couple of games still to check.
March 14, 2015 at 3:19 pm
#1955
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
So today I started handicapping baseball. Now it is pre-season and my book has no totals
posted but using SOS straight up the plays would be…
CLE @ LAD. LAD -1.35 straight up.
TEX @ SDP. SDP -1.30 straight up.
It’s not much but it is something.
March 14, 2015 at 4:30 pm
#1958
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Ya really! Holy NERVES Batman
–
As for the points, when I looked at in a vacuum this past week I saw 4-0. If you looked
at other instances and have a 0-4 impression, then between the two of us it’s 4-4 and
very unclear.
I’d love to see this consideration documented so we can either pay careful attention to
it, or no attention to it. Either way, it’d be nice to have some closure on the
question!!
March 14, 2015 at 4:34 pm
#1959
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 26-18-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 45-30-2 in the Klondike.
March 14, 2015 at 4:42 pm
#1960
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Smart Stats one last play.
SAC @ WAS Under 209.5
March 14, 2015 at 4:42 pm
#1961
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB Eligibles According To What Worked Well Yesterday:
BOS -125 ML (12th in hitting (.OPS)) vs PIT 26th (14 rung advantage)
SDP -127 ML (4th in hitting (.OPS)) vs TEX 14th (10 rung advantage)
CIN -124 ML (11th in hitting (.OPS)) vs COL 20th (9 rung advantage)
CLE +117 ML (8th in hitting (.OPS)) vs LAD 22nd (14 rung advantage)
HOU +110 ML (5th in hitting (.OPS)) vs ATL 27th (22 rung advantage)
I think CLE and HOU here. They are lighting it up and according to the discussion a few
days ago, and the 2-0 result yesterday, bats are what should have the most purchase
here.
I particular like HOU because they are up against the namebrand ATL which means that no
matter what HOU has shown us so far this year, the public will pound ATL no matter what.
I think there is free money with HOU.
Either way, CLE at dog odds and HOU at dog odds, if one of them wins, I’m laughing.
Today’s MLB picks CLE ML and HOU ML.
March 14, 2015 at 5:03 pm
#1963
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
BOS +7.5 (SOS 5) A 1.0 (L7 vs 63-68)
MIL +6.5 (SOS 6) W 0.5 (L7 vs 49-49)
March 14, 2015 at 5:07 pm
#1964
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Pardon me, MLB CIN game tied. 1-0-1 yesterday…
March 14, 2015 at 9:43 pm
#1972
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
C’mon Cleveland! Let’s have us a beautiful inning here!! Dodgers! You guys have enough
runs. 3 is more than enough, no worries about hitting the ball the rest of the game.
Cleveland, it’s your time to shine boys.
(clap clap clap)
March 14, 2015 at 9:52 pm
#1973
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Stuck with the database. Very small. Go Dogers and Padres. I don’t like it when we are
on opposite sides.
March 14, 2015 at 10:22 pm
#1975
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
What do you mean by SOS SU?
March 14, 2015 at 10:50 pm
#1978
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I just did our usual SOS for NBA but for MLB. +5 or more using SOS find the games that
qualified, 2 for today and bet those games ML or straight up. No run line.
Both games were under -1.40 which is my criteria, finally place the bets.
I figure we have to start somewhere. Maybe SOS +5 or more is all we need for baseball. I
don’t play run lines! So that leaves money lines and totals. I am curious how SOS will
play out. Will SOS change from game 1 to game 2 to game 3. No travel involved. Teams are
rested. Does SOS only work for the first game of a 3 game series. Maybe that is what we
wait for? Win that 1st game and forget about the next 2. This would sure lower the
number of games we would be betting on thruout the regular season.
Pre season doesn’t count for anything. The database got lucky today.
Something to consider, though.
March 14, 2015 at 10:54 pm
#1979
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Hopefully after tonight we can stop panning for gold and buy a Sluth. lol.
March 15, 2015 at 5:57 am
#1986
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
It’s all about streaks with MLB.
So there is a high probability that the SOS will highlight the best streaks.
We should track both ATS and WTS spread as well to see what’s going on there.
Maybe ATS is the bigger consideration?
Maybe the L7 vs will be the bigger consideration?
Is there something on the Raymond Report we can use?
Lots of questions…
We should each be documenting 2 systems with the hopes of finding the best one that we
can use for 2016. Also, we absolutely need to understand WHAT TIME OF SEASON our systems
do and don’t work.
If we do these things, we have a chance at a future filled with dollar bills.
I’ll be betting 1/10th units on theoretical systems. Technically, I shouldn’t be betting
anything, but if I don’t put SOMETHING on it…well…that would break my streak of betting
4 years straight, nearly every single day.
I highly recommend you start a spreadsheet. Finding algorithms with a paper and pencil
is crazy ness.
That Sluth you’re taking about? That’s your Spreadsheet.
Right click anywhere on your desktop to open it up.
Everything is all neatly organized for you.
How do you think I figured out that when the line moves with the pick we’re 23-9?
That’s what a spreadsheet can do for you.
All you need to know to use it is…NOTHING. It’s plain and simple.
Catch ya tomorrow bright and early, bushy tailed, and all that
March 15, 2015 at 6:07 am
#1987
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 27-20-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 46-31-2 in the Klondike.
March 15, 2015 at 3:35 pm
#1999
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
EARLY GAME: CHI +8 (SOS 8) W 0.5 (L7 vs 54-48)
More to follow…
March 15, 2015 at 3:41 pm
#2000
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OTHER PICK(S) DEN +7 (SOS 12) A 0.5 (L7 vs 60-58)
March 15, 2015 at 3:49 pm
#2001
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Taking the Mets on a 1/3rd unit bet.
March 15, 2015 at 3:53 pm
#2002
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
LAA
March 15, 2015 at 3:56 pm
#2003
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SEA
March 15, 2015 at 3:57 pm
#2004
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
KCR
March 15, 2015 at 4:08 pm
#2006
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well no Smart Stats plays for today. Boo.
I am going to put a half unit each on CHI and DEN and probably bet the 2nd half of both
early games. I am in no hurry to give back anything significant today. Pass on baseball
today.
March 15, 2015 at 4:35 pm
#2009
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Free Spreadsheet here: openoffice.org
March 15, 2015 at 5:49 pm
#2010
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
OKC – 4.5 to start the 2nd half.
March 15, 2015 at 7:16 pm
#2012
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Ohh CHI, so close. OKC gets the 2nd half job done. Up next HOU @ LAC 2nd half.
March 15, 2015 at 8:35 pm
#2013
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
LAC -5 points to start the 2nd half.
March 15, 2015 at 10:06 pm
#2017
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
BooYaa. Outstanding. The Clippers storm back to cover the 2nd half 5 point spread. The
line opened at 5.5 and was bet down to 5. Lot’s of folks crying in their soup right now.
With only 2 NBA plays offered up by the database, sometimes you just have to go old
school. Actually watch the games and bet the 2nd half accordingly.
Up next POR @ TOR 2nd half.
March 15, 2015 at 10:15 pm
#2018
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Using SOS + 5 points today’s baseball plays would have been…
MIN
CIN
SDP
COL.
MIN game ended in a tie or push. I stayed away from baseball today but just for record
purposes. Yesterday 2-0.
March 15, 2015 at 10:51 pm
#2019
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Alright. TOr -1.5 points for the full game. Usually NBA teams play pretty good on the
first game of a long road trip. First of 5 for POR. They did travel across country but
TOR is starting to wake up. The Database leans towards TOR for SU and since it is under
3 points and I have noticed TOR plays better starting at 7pm rather than 1pm or 4pm on
Sunday’s.
I am willing to risk a unit on TOR tonight. I would not be surprised if TOR is down 2
points going into the half.
March 15, 2015 at 11:51 pm
#2021
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR – 4 points to start the 2nd half.
March 16, 2015 at 12:00 am
#2022
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR is down 12 points. I side with the books here. TOR if they lose it should be by less
than 8 points. Heck they could still win. I hope the time travel catches up to POR.
March 16, 2015 at 12:04 am
#2023
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Crazy. The half time score was incorrect. TOR down by 11 not 12. Crazy. Still a bet.
March 16, 2015 at 12:58 am
#2024
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Win some lose some. Enough for tonight. Time to relax. We survived.
March 16, 2015 at 2:08 pm
#2037
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 27-20-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 47-32-2 in the Klondike.
March 16, 2015 at 4:02 pm
#2039
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Monday Mar 16th Smart Stat plays.
DEN @ MEM Over 197.5
CHA @ UTH Under 179.5 ( this on scares me a bit )
March 16, 2015 at 4:48 pm
#2040
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Yeah, that’s a low total…BUT…that will drive traffic to the OVER plus people have a bias
to the OVER…so at the end of the day, it’s a total unlike any other…if anything…we
should have a few points in our favor compared to what it’s actually worth.
March 16, 2015 at 5:12 pm
#2042
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB is 1-6-1 capping bats.
Dang! lol At least I won my first MLB bet of the season. So that’s a good omen at least.
I think we should wait 2-3 weeks into the season before looking at ATS MLB at all.
Players need a chance to get settled, there is no point in tracking ATS STATS until they
do.
March 16, 2015 at 5:31 pm
#2043
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s Picks:
TOR +5 (SOS 11) A 0.5 (L7 vs 49-59)
DEN +9.5 (SOS 13) A 2.0 (L7 vs 62-52)
March 16, 2015 at 9:59 pm
#2048
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well it looks like the lines and totals are all moving against us today. Every game!
SOS + 5 or more points is 3-2-1 last 2 days And I did not look at today’s games. I agree
with you and we should wait till the season really gets going. I do like to play some
home openers. I used to know a site that listed teams performance in their home openers.
March 16, 2015 at 11:55 pm
#2050
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Wait til Hockey man. I found out a system that knocked it out of the park last year.
It’s all buried in the blog if you look at when preseason starts.
DEADLY system.
I wish it would translate, but MLB is too unique. Dynamic pitching and daily games makes
it TOUGH to cap.
March 16, 2015 at 11:55 pm
#2051
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I did find something tracking the line moves, but only after it’s underway.
March 17, 2015 at 6:00 am
#2056
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Well, I got Den at 11.5 and hooked the books, but as far as my track record at line
open, I’ll have to count it as a loss. Sometimes it goes one way, sometimes another. And
it seems to be just about even. So it all evens out.
March 17, 2015 at 2:28 pm
#2064
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Tues Mar 17 Smart Stat plays.
ORL @ HOU Under 203.5
CHA @ LAC Under 199
2 games still to check.
March 17, 2015 at 2:59 pm
#2065
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I updated the site.
MIL +7 (SOS 6) Even (L7 vs 45-51)
ORL +11.5 (SOS 6) Even (L7 vs 44-49)
CHA +9.5 (SOS 9) A 0.5 (L7 vs 47-46)
March 17, 2015 at 4:45 pm
#2066
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
One more play.
MIL @ N.O. Over 190
That’s it. 6 plays in total. BooYaa.
March 17, 2015 at 9:21 pm
#2067
Reply
Bon
I have a good feeling about sports tonight. I parlayed those 6 together (1/5th unit pays
~50x) and I’m going to do a big NHL parlay as well as the 6 singles from SOS and Smart
Stat!
I’m also cheering on my Senators hard tonight in their push for the post-season. I know
it’s highly unlikely, but I can’t give up hope yet!
March 17, 2015 at 9:53 pm
#2068
Reply
Bon
NHL Parlay if you were interested:
Ottawa M/L
Montreal M/L
San Jose M/L
Minnesota M/L
Chicago/Islanders Over 5.5
Pays 30:1
Good luck tonight everybody!
March 17, 2015 at 10:00 pm
#2069
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Good luck tonight Bon. We’ll be rooting for your parlays.
March 18, 2015 at 4:07 am
#2070
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Monday’s Tally:
The SmartStat3Star system is now 28-21-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 48-33-2 in the Klondike.
March 18, 2015 at 4:10 am
#2071
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Parlays are to Books what Video Slots are to Casinos.
If you like money, play the BJ, play the Craps.
ML OU.
That’s it.
If you like Bingo and the Lottery…play parlays and other secondary bets.
That’s all.
March 18, 2015 at 11:11 am
#2072
Reply
Bon
I agree 100%. There are just some days that I wake up and feel great about the night so
I make a couple parlays hoping to win big. It’s only ever paid off once but the risk is
so small in my eyes that it’s worth it for the fun! I still profited on the night thanks
to the single bets though!
March 18, 2015 at 3:47 pm
#2073
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Wed Mar 18th Smart Stat plays.
Well Shiver Me Timbers. 11 games for tonight and not 1 single Smart Stat plays. The
closet thing to a play would have been ATL @ G.S. Over 208.5
Boo. Sometimes these things happen. I will not force a play. Either it qualifies or it
doesn’t.
March 18, 2015 at 8:14 pm
#2074
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-22-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 50-34-2 in the Klondike.
Today’s picks:
PHI +1 (SOS 6) A 1.0 (L7 vs 41-36)
BOS +7.5 (SOS 10) W 1.0 (L7 vs 66-45)
WSH +3 (SOS 13) A 0.5 (L7 vs 56-63)
March 18, 2015 at 8:15 pm
#2075
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-22-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 50-34-2 in the Klondike.
Today’s picks:
PHI +1 (SOS 6) A 1.0 (L7 vs 41-36)
BOS +7.5 (SOS 10) W 1.0 (L7 vs 66-45)
WSH +3 (SOS 13) A 0.5 (L7 vs 56-63)
March 19, 2015 at 1:10 am
#2076
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
While Smart Stats lays low tonight, SOS WTS, gives us our first winner of the night.
Nice.
March 19, 2015 at 4:19 pm
#2077
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-22-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 53-34-2 in the Klondike.
NYK +1 (SOS 6) W 1.0 (L7 vs 45-34)
DEN +8.5 (SOS 14) W 1.5 (L7 vs 58-52)
March 19, 2015 at 5:56 pm
#2078
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Thur Mar 19 Smart Stat plays.
MIN @ NY Over 196
March 20, 2015 at 5:13 am
#2079
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
WWW
WLW
WWL
WLL
LWL
LLW
LLL < – – – All things equal, we should be getting skunked once every 7th game.
We are FAR better than that…but it had to happen.
It had to happen.
Let’s be thankful we got skunked on a measely 3 banger!!
March 20, 2015 at 1:54 pm
#2080
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-23-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 53-37-2 in the Klondike.
March 20, 2015 at 3:29 pm
#2081
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s Games:
MIL +3 (SOS 10) W 0.5 (L7 vs 42-42)
DEN +6 (SOS 8) A 1.0 (L7 vs 58-55)
TOR +1.5 (SOS 13) Even (L7 vs 47-41)
WSH +7 (SOS 18) W 0.5 (L7 vs 66-53)
After last night’s debacle, it’s good luck when you let us know what you’re having for
dinner!
Also, I’m going to track what happens when we have the same team in consecutive days in
terms of losses…see if there is correlation.
OU – 0-1
No other matches
–
OK let’s look at spreads at +8 or more… 6-2
OK let’s look at spreads at +7 or more… 10-4
Given the overall “53-37-2″ record, we can say that the higher the spread, the better we
look.
–
March 20, 2015 at 3:32 pm
#2082
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NOTE!! I’m not sure exactly when or if this system will lose it’s sail.
I know that the time of year that it’s successful is around this period, but we’ve been
on this for a while.
If it starts losing it’s momentum, I will decrease to half units and then to no units.
We need to keep mining.
March 20, 2015 at 7:16 pm
#2083
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Fri Mar 20th Smart Stat plays.
MEM @ DAL Under 195.5
CHA @ SAC Over 206
March 20, 2015 at 7:20 pm
#2084
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I was thinking the same damn thing last night. Some of these lower tier teams like NY
and DEN and some others, maybe we should at this time of the year, start eliminating
these teams as they cannot be trusted!!
I am still at work and will carry this conversation when I get home.
March 21, 2015 at 4:33 pm
#2085
Reply
Bon
Not the best of nights last night. Do you guys think the strategy is turning downward or
just a small bump in the road?
March 21, 2015 at 4:37 pm
#2086
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-25-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 54-40-2 in the Klondike.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Let me break down the categories today…we’ll see what hits the hardest.
March 21, 2015 at 4:42 pm
#2087
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Great question Bon.
We’ve been POUNDING these systems for almost 2 months now.
We knew that they were successful for this time of season.
I didn’t continue through with SOS, I stopped tracking somewhere around this time of
season. So it’s unchartered.
2 months of 60% success is HUGE, even if that’s all it is.
So to answer your question…nobody knows, but I definitely feel this may be the end of
the time of season where this system is most effective.
We will continue to track, but I will now be betting half units.
And if we don’t see some kind of PROOF that it was just a hiccup, I will continue
tracking but stop betting altogether.
1/2 unit bets until it shows us what’s happening one way or another.
In the mean time, I’ll try to mine out a system based on what McGrath pointed out.
I will chart success of each team by their respective SOS ranking categories…and I will
also chart out SOS# vs SOS# outcomes.
You’ll see what I mean a little later today once I can compile the numbers.
March 21, 2015 at 4:55 pm
#2088
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s play:
BRK +5.5 (SOS 13) A 3.0 (L7 vs 49-43)
March 21, 2015 at 5:01 pm
#2089
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
When the line moved AGAINST by 3 or more, 1-3.
I bet a half unit here…but I probably should have stayed away altogether.
Let’s see where each category comes in here….Standby.
March 21, 2015 at 5:11 pm
#2090
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sat Mar 21 Smart Stat plays.
Well no plays today. After the last couple of days I am fine with that. One play that
almost made the grade.
UTH @ G.S. Under 192. This play has 3 blue stars and 5 green stars pointing towards this
game going under. There is however 1 green star pointing towards this game going over.
So technically we have to throw this play away. Still that is a lot of stars pointing
towards the under. 1 blue star is 0-12-0 towards the under tonight. Hmm. I will play BRK
+8.5 and this game to go under. HALF unit each. That’s it.
March 21, 2015 at 5:36 pm
#2091
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
So here is kind of what I was thinking. 30 teams in the NBA. We have the top 15 teams
and the bottom 15 teams. Maybe we should think twice about betting into games that
involve bottom 15 teams.
So today we have BRK @ IND. two bottom or below 15 teams. Can they be trusted. It’s the
only SOS WTS play for today. Because this is a below 15 game we should probably throw it
away.
If we look at game 2. CHI @ DET. CHI is a top 15 team and DET is a below 15 team. If SOS
recommended DET at + 3.5 we should throw that game away.
Game 3. PHO @ HOU here we have 2 top 15 teams playing each other. If SOS recommended a
play on PHO + 8 that would be a play.
Game 4. POR @ MEM. Once again 2 top 15 teams playing each other. If SOS recommended a
play on POR + 3.5 that would be a play.
Game 4. UTH @ G.S. UTH is a sub or below 15 team playing a top 15 team. If SOS
recommended a play on UTH + 8.5 we would throw that play away.
I wonder if something like this would help us refine our SOS WTS system plays. I still
have more thoughts on this but I wanted to get this out there.
Regarding the UTH @ G.S. Game.
The under is 10-2-0 last 12 meetings in G.S.
The under is 18-7-1 last 26 meetings.
Having said this G.S. Is the highest scoring team in the NBA. D’oh.
March 21, 2015 at 5:45 pm
#2092
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
This might work for the last leg of the regular season only.
March 21, 2015 at 5:46 pm
#2093
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OK results are in.
SOS 20-29: 0-3
SOS 30-39: 15-10
SOS 40-49: 17-20
SOS 50-59: 21-29
SOS 60-69: 18-14
SOS 70-79: 1-1
Bet 30s 60s.
Stay away from 40s 50s.
The next chart I’ll compile will be a vs chart.
20s vs 30s:
20s vs 40s:
20s vs 50s:
30s vs 20s:
30s vs 40s:
30s vs 50s:
…and so on.
Standby…
March 21, 2015 at 5:50 pm
#2094
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Good thinking McGrath.
I would say that SOS WTS right now is in flux.
You could make a new system that’s got nothing to do with WTS, or track SOS WTS if you
want it as a part of your considerations.
Start tracking that, and if we see good effect in the next week, we can start 1/2
uniting it the week after and maybe we can find a solid vein for next year this time of
year when SOS WTS stops working in the late late season.
In the meantime, I’ll compile SOS WTS vs stats and see if there are any trends there.
March 21, 2015 at 5:51 pm
#2095
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
To be clear…
WHEN OUR PICK IS WITHIN THE FOLLOWING SOS RANGE, THE RESULTS ARE:
SOS 20-29: 0-3
SOS 30-39: 15-10
SOS 40-49: 17-20
SOS 50-59: 21-29
SOS 60-69: 18-14
SOS 70-79: 1-1
March 21, 2015 at 6:03 pm
#2096
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Correction: SOS 20-29 is 2-2
March 21, 2015 at 6:04 pm
#2097
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Maybe we should go back to investing SOS ATS as well as SOS WTS. Example.
POR @ MEM. POR is a -10 and MEM is a + 4. That means we would back MEM -3.5 for the
game. They are both top 15 teams so the game meets both SOS ATS and “Top 15″ criteria.
March 21, 2015 at 6:32 pm
#2098
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OK. So keep in mind that this is not done by point spread, this is done by 20s 30s 40s.
So a 41-39 would still count as a win for the 40s and a loss for the 30s.
Also, this omits 20s vs 20s 30s vs 30s. Again, a 21 vs 29 will be covered in the spreads
section to see if and/ where spreads are significant.
I do have the spreads available as well, I’ll chart the spreads next.
20 vs 30: 0-0
20 vs 40: 0-0
20 vs 50: 1-2
20 vs 50: 1-0
30 vs 40: 4-6
30 vs 50: 10-3
30 vs 60: 4-2
30 vs 70: 0-1
40 vs 50: 8-6
40 vs 60: 3-7
40 vs 70: 0-0
50 vs 60: 8-8
50 vs 70: 1-0
60 vs 70: 0-0
March 21, 2015 at 6:35 pm
#2099
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
According to the numbers….McGrath….
SOS 20-29: 2-2
SOS 30-39: 15-10
SOS 40-49: 17-20
SOS 50-59: 21-29
SOS 60-69: 18-14
SOS 70-79: 1-1
30s are MORE effective than 60s.
That said, bottom half and top half teams are a different story.
March 21, 2015 at 6:40 pm
#2100
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Spreads are insignificant:
0-4: 10-9
5-9: 15-17
10-14: 8-12
15-19: 3-2
20-24: 7-8
+25: 5-7
March 21, 2015 at 6:42 pm
#2101
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Very interesting!
Could you imagine an NBA game… That was in the 30-39 range or the 60-69 range that was
also SOS WTS and a Top 15 game. I would say… That is a PLAY.
March 21, 2015 at 6:42 pm
#2102
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS 30-39: 15-10
SOS 60-69: 18-14
It looks to me like Vegas might have a weakness setting lines for teams that are
streaking.
It looks like when teams get on a streak, the SOS WTS system exploits the lines that
Vegas puts out.
I would focus on: SOS WTS 30s + 60s.
March 21, 2015 at 6:43 pm
#2103
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Particularly 60s vs 40s.
March 21, 2015 at 6:54 pm
#2104
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Yeah exactly McGrath.
You know, when you interpret what these numbers mean, they indicate how a team played
14-7 games ago, and how they played 7-0 games ago.
So what it’s describing is sharp spikes of increased/decreased performance.
Considering we’re always on the WTS side…I think that what’s happening is that the
public is not catching up, or able to put a number value on the AMOUNT that a team is
streaking.
So we can catch WTS teams that are hot or WTS teams that are facing cooling top teams.
Without the public picking up the trend quick enough, the books will be forced to give
us points over and over and over again. It could be W 0.5, it could be W 10.5. Who
knows. But the point is, I think that this logically puts us on the right side of the
points without having to pay for them.
I think this system describes logic, McGrath.
I think this system beats the public.
It makes PERFECT sense that we would find the outliers in the cool/hot teams instead of
the average range.
Put simply…
The only way a SOS 30 team shows up as a pick for us is if they’re improving from 25,
and/, if they’re facing a cooling team.
The public won’t track this quick enough, and will bet the ATS side. This will pile
points on our improving “30” team. The game ends up tighter than expected and we cover.
OR
The team that was 55 is now in the 60s. The team that WAS average is now exceptional.
The only way we play a ***WTS*** 60 is if they’ve improved or if they’re playing a team
on a recent downswing. So again. the public is betting the hot team thinking they have
to come back, and that the WTS team has been lucky lately. But the point is that betting
the outlying 30 and 60 WTS picks makes logical sense and it preys on the public
naturally giving teams undeserved action.
March 21, 2015 at 6:57 pm
#2105
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I’ll buy that.
March 21, 2015 at 9:34 pm
#2106
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Know what? While it will present itself differently (value instead of W/L) … this could
be a huge consideration for baseball as well.
I can’t think of a better sport than baseball where changes in teams can happen over the
shortest span of time.
If “the public catching up” is the name of the game…then we should be able to get many
many games for -180 instead of -220. -140 in stead of -180. +110 instead of -130 and so
on.
Hmmm…
March 22, 2015 at 2:49 am
#2107
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
We’re not back on track yet.
The fact that we had a bad day after a skunk has me on red alert. 1/2 units until we
feel we’re burning money by not betting the full amount.
Also, that whole 30-60 system…that tracks what would have worked up until today.
If things are changing, there is a good chance that that could change along with it…
March 22, 2015 at 4:08 pm
#2108
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sun Mar 22 Smart Stat plays.
CLE @ MIL Under 196
DET @ BOS Under 196.5
5 games still to check.
March 22, 2015 at 5:12 pm
#2109
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
DAL @ PHO Under 207
So out of today’s games only DAL @ PHO involve 2 Top 15 teams. 8th seed vs 15th seed.
CLE @ MIL we have a Top 6th seed team vs a below 16th seed team.
DET @ BOS we have a Below 24th seed team vs a below 29th seed team.
I am tracking this to see if investing in games that involve Below 15 seeded teams is
more risky than betting on games that involve Top 15 seeded teams AT this time of the
season.
Out of the 3 games today only DAL @ PHO meets Smart Stat and Top 15 criteria. So
technically this game would be the one to bet on.
Now a play is a play and I am on all 3 but I will be curious to see how all this pans
out. I am doing this for this time of the year only. Let’s face it below 15 teams are
ranked there for a reason. They are inconsistent with their play. They are less
reliable! Investing in only top 15 team games should be more consistent with our
results.
Maybe all of this is for nothing, who knows?
March 22, 2015 at 5:40 pm
#2110
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Stop! McGrath, big change….those 30s and 60s were NOT always our pick. Those were
broadspectrum stats. Anytime those numbers showed up, whether our pick, or the team we
were fading, that’s the results. Standby and I’ll look at specifically when we pick
those numbers….
March 22, 2015 at 5:46 pm
#2111
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-25-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 55-40-2 in the Klondike.
SAS +2 (SOS 9) W 0.5 (L7 vs 57-53)
DEN +1 (SOS 17) Even (L7 vs 58-33)
MIN +3.5 (SOS 7) A 1.5 (L7 vs 36-39)
PHI +5 (SOS 17) W 0.5 (L7 vs 51-35)
March 22, 2015 at 5:53 pm
#2112
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
When our pick was in the 30s: 3-3 (Moral of the story, we shouldn’t fade 30s)
When our pick was in the 60s: 21-10 (Moral of the story, we should bet 60s)
March 22, 2015 at 6:24 pm
#2113
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
So just for fun. Smart Stat + Top 15 play would be DAL @ PHO Under 207.
SOS WTS + Top 15 play would be SAN @ ATL SAN + 1.5
7 plays all total. I am on all 7.
By adding Top 15 as a criteria we sure lower our exposure to our bankroll. Instead of 7
plays we have only 2. A good experiment to watch for this time of the year.
March 22, 2015 at 9:10 pm
#2114
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
CLE @ MIL goes over by 2 points. Too bad. Not a Top +15 play and it’s a lose.
SAN @ ATL. A Top 15 play and an easy winner.
4 more games involving teams in the bottom 15 of the NBA. 3 sides and 1 totals play.
The last Top 15 game is DAL @ PHO Under 207
March 22, 2015 at 9:59 pm
#2115
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
DET @ BOS. That’s 2 teams below 15. DET ranked 24th and BOS ranked 19th. My mistake.
March 22, 2015 at 10:14 pm
#2116
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Essentially we are turning a 30 team league into a 15 team league. From here on out we
stop investing in lower echelon teams and those games.
Look at PHI @ LAL game. PHI is ranked 28 out of 30 teams and LAL ranked 27th out of 30
teams.
Who in their right mind would invest hard earned cash on these two teams! Why would you?
We are going to trust that PHI feels good tonight and will cover the spread. They are
ranked 28th in all the NBA!!
I am only talking about this time of the season!! We know what we have been doing works
till this point in the NBA regular season. But rather than give it all back slowly we
need to adjust. Get more stingy. Start eliminating these games that invole teams ranked
16-30th overall standings in the NBA.
Stick to the Top 15 teams and games.
March 23, 2015 at 2:14 pm
#2117
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
“By adding Top 15 as a criteria we sure lower our exposure to our bankroll. Instead of 7
plays we have only 2. A good experiment to watch for this time of the year.” – Agreed. A
very good experiment.
What we’d have to do is track this consideration and this year, and if it has good
effect for late season NBA, then we could bet units on it next year.
I have no interest in betting more than 1/15th of a unit at the moment, however, because
it could easily go the other way. If the public are all over those teams, which they
are, you could find yourself on the wrong end of a hook, time and time again…
particularly when everyone on the bottom 15 teams are trying to prove that they’re not
the weak link in the team.
March 23, 2015 at 2:19 pm
#2118
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-27-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 57-42-2 in the Klondike.
You said: “Now a play is a play and I am on all 3 but I will be curious to see how all
this pans out. I am doing this for this time of the year only. Let’s face it below 15
teams are ranked there for a reason. They are inconsistent with their play. They are
less reliable! Investing in only top 15 team games should be more consistent with our
results.
Maybe all of this is for nothing, who knows?”
I said: EXACTLY!! THAT is what the Klondike is. RIGHT THERE. You nailed it in one
paragraph. If there were 10 more of me and 10 more of you, we could find systems that
apply to early, mid, late season…for EVERY sport…and if not for THIS season, then
certainly for next.
March 23, 2015 at 2:31 pm
#2119
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The only issue I have here…is again…we are not betting ML. We are betting ATS. We’re not
up against struggling and inconsistent teams…we’re up against Vegas book makers AND the
points that the public takes from the line as the day goes on, when it comes to popular
teams…
I think I might try tracking the other way…and look at double digit dogs.
+10.5 to cover etc.
No theory necessary, I can see it all right here:
www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/
Let me look this up and see if there is a positive assessment here somewhere.
If I’m right, the public are taking points ATS from popular teams and giving undo points
WTS.
Given what you’re looking into, one of us should find the gold…unless vegas bookmakers
are awesome. Then we’ll find 50/50 everywhere we look…like with most things lol.
Also, we should probably officially cap your Smart Stat System today.
You were 60% up until a week ago and then BOOM!
My question is…when did you start that Smart3StarSystem?
When can we say it was most effective?
I’ll look at the numbers, but I’m pretty sure that you were CONSISTENTLY averaging about
60% across almost 2 months.
If you’d like to keep tracking it just to see what it would do, that’s fine too.
We could even look at FADING the system this time of year?
Hmmm…
My system is dying a slow death too at the moment I fear.
We wanted to know if it was a hiccup or the start of a heart attack…I think we’re
starting to get our answer here lol.
“Paging Dr. McGrath to Cardio, We need a LATE LATE SEASON NBA system stat!”
March 23, 2015 at 4:11 pm
#2120
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Isn’t Smart Stats 32-26?
Mon Mar 23 Smart Stat plays.
HOU @ IND Over 202
BOS @ BRK Over 203
CHA @ CHI Under 191
Game 1. Top 4 vs Bottom 21
Game 2. Bottom 20 vs Bottom 22
Game 3. Bottom 19 vs Top 11
No Top 15 teams playing each other today. Yesterday there were 3 games that involved Top
15 teams playing each other. SOS and Smart Stats produced 2 plays that involved Top 15
teams and both were easy winners.
Top 15 Smart Stat plays. 1-0-0
Top 15 SOS WTS plays 1-0-0
Overall we went 4-2 yesterday. Smart Stats 2-1 and SOS WTS 2-1
March 23, 2015 at 4:16 pm
#2121
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s picks:
HOU +1 (SOS 12) Even (L7 vs 56-38)
WSH +11 (SOS 15) A 0.5 (L7 vs 61-65)
I really like WSH on the surface, but +11 at an even SOS makes me think it’s a trap.
March 23, 2015 at 4:25 pm
#2122
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
You went 0-2 yesterday. BOS and MIL went over the total. You picked Under.
Mine went 2-2.
I did find a correction. On the day where we got skunked, I counted 3 losses against my
system and 1 against you. So I have one less loss.
The SmartStat3Star system is now 30-27-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 57-41-2 in the Klondike.
March 23, 2015 at 4:36 pm
#2123
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
You missed the DAL @ PHO game Under 206 So I went 1-2 You were right about that DET @
BOS game. It went Over. Well whatever the record is, keep moving forward.
Always marching forward. lol. lol. Let’s hope we do better tonight. Your system seems
stronger right now. Team work!!
March 23, 2015 at 4:38 pm
#2124
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Awesome thinking tracking top 15 like that. I hope that pans out.
That would be awesome.
OK so underdogs priced at +10 are 9-10 since March 7th.
Vegas sets the line TIGHT.
20-12 ATS
18-15 WTS
It’s interesting that ATS is taking the forefront.
It makes sense if you’re onto something, that the SOS ATS might make the most sense here
going forward.
But the key factor is that BOTH earned money when I tracked them…so if you’re onto
something, we might find the power of SOS shift to SOS ATS in late late season?
Hmmm. I’m tracking all of it, but maybe starting tomorrow we should start a new thread
for LATE LATE season and I’ll put up SOS ATS and you put up Top 15 teams??
What do you think?
March 23, 2015 at 4:39 pm
#2125
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 31-27-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 57-41-2 in the Klondike.
March 23, 2015 at 4:40 pm
#2126
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS 20-12 ATS Since March 9th
SOS 18-15 WTS Since March 9th
March 23, 2015 at 4:43 pm
#2127
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
We can still continue to track these systems too (just to be sure that they’re not
having a lucky bad streak, because parity might give us 80% next 20 games….
But just add another theoretical system and test it for late season success.
Imagine that next year we find ourselves in this position, and we have another system to
switch to. That would KICK – BUTT!
March 23, 2015 at 4:59 pm
#2128
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Hey McGrath, if you want to know…here are the list of the last SOS WTS results since
March 9th. I’m not sure who the top 15 are exactly…but maybe you can get something from
it…I’d love to know how top 15 teams made out…:
NOP +1.5 W
PHX +5 L
LAL +2 W
BKY +4.5 L
BOS +4.5 W
LAC +6.5 W
DEN +7.5 W
NYK +7.5 W
MIA +5.5 L
MIN +11 L
LAC +2.5 L
DEN +8 W
BOS +7.5 W
MIL +6.5 L
TOR +5 W
DEN +9.5 L
MIL +7 W
ORL +11.5 L
CHA +9.5 W
PHI +1 W
BOS +7.5 W
WSH +3 W
NYK +1 L
DEN +8.5 L
MIL +3 W
DEN +6 L
TOR +1.5 L
WSH +7 L
BRK +5.5 W
SAS +2 W
DEN +1 W
MIN +3.5 L
PHI +5 L
March 23, 2015 at 5:06 pm
#2129
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
To my count…top 15 teams are 7-5 but they are 4-2 L6 instances of late…
March 24, 2015 at 5:30 am
#2130
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS ATS is 21-12 L33.
It was mediocre before Mar 9th, but it’s pounding wins out pretty hard right now.
The SmartStat3Star system is now 33-28-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 58-42-2 in the Klondike.
March 24, 2015 at 5:31 am
#2131
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 33-28-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 58-42-2 in the Klondike.
March 24, 2015 at 3:57 pm
#2132
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s SOS WTS picks:
DET +1 (SOS 7) A 1.0 (L7 vs 51-49)
DAL +2 (SOS 7) A 1.5 (L7 vs 59-57)
Today’s SOS ATS picks:
MIA -1 (SOS 10) W 0.5 (L7 vs 59-33)
OKL -10.5 (SOS 10) A 0.5 (L7 vs 62-39)
I’m a little torn as to which way to bet. I’m highly tempted to bet them all….I think
I’m going to get ATS here, but I’ll still track WTS as well.
The SmartStat3Star system is now 33-28-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 58-42-2 in the Klondike.
The SOS ATS system is now 0-0 in this Klondike.
March 24, 2015 at 4:03 pm
#2133
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
It’s too late, but we said bet 60 and don’t fade 30 so OKL is the best pick in my lot. I
already bet MIA too….wish me luck….but I think OKL would be the only recommendation…
also…60-30 applied to WTS not ATS…so…
Starting to get dizzy yet? lol
March 24, 2015 at 4:57 pm
#2134
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
So far, No Smart Stat plays. Closest thing would be SAN @ DAL Over 206
I agree I think ATS is the way to go tonight. I too bet OKC -10 and MIA -1.5
Interesting SAN @ DAL is a Top 15 game. We have a Top 8 vs a Top 9 game. It’s a WTS play
and is the only one I am going to play tonight. I do not like the TOR @ DET game.
So that is 3 plays for me right now. 2 games still to check as far as Smart Stat plays.
March 24, 2015 at 8:19 pm
#2135
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Tues Mar 24 Smart Stat plays.
TOR @ DET Over 201
G.S. @ POR Under 206.5 This line is climbing (205) and will probably go higher so I am
waiting. This game is also a Top 15 game. Top 1 vs Top 7.
March 25, 2015 at 3:00 pm
#2136
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Top 15 Smart Stat Plays. 1-1-0
Top 15 SOS WTS Plays. 2-0-0
Top 15 SOS ATS Plays. 0-0-0
March 25, 2015 at 3:07 pm
#2137
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Wed Mar 25 Smart Stat plays.
IND @ WAS Over 193
CLE @ MEM Under 194 (Top 15 Game)
March 25, 2015 at 6:24 pm
#2138
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 34-29-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 60-42-2 in the Klondike.
The SOS ATS system is now 0-2 in this Klondike.
I’m not real keen on betting ATS. I think parity is going to thrash ATS and I think WTS
is still a hard hitter. Lost some coin yesterday not betting WTS.
60-42 is rock solid and we should have some confidence until it starts to fail. Tough
call. I’ll be betting your totals and the SOS WTS tonight.
BKY +3 (SOS 8) A 0.5 (L7 vs 50-40)
MIA +4 (SOS 9) A 1.5 (L7 vs 56-52)
OKL +7.5 (SOS 18) Even (L7 vs 66-50)
WSH -3.5 (SOS 21) Even (L7 vs 58-35)
UTA -6 (SOS 6) A 1.5 (L7 vs 54-44)
March 25, 2015 at 9:35 pm
#2146
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
For tracking purposes. We have 2 Top 15 games tonight out of all the plays. 1 Smart Stat
game. CLE @ MEM Under 195 and 1 SOS WTS OKC @ SAN. We shall see how they do?
I played both totals and the 3 SOS WTS plays. Finally I took a shot on 1 SOS ATS play.
POR @ UTH. UTH -3.5
6 plays total.
March 25, 2015 at 10:28 pm
#2154
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
ATS is at the height of it’s parity, WTS is at it’s lowest.
At any rate, we might have been wrong to drop WTS so quickly. There is a big difference
between a natural ebb and flow, and a failing system.
Giving back all your money is one thing. Allowing for the flux in the market, is
another. I still maintain 1/2 unit was the way to go…based on experience…but at the end
of the day a 60-42 system does not deserve to be bailed on. It’s as good as it gets.
March 25, 2015 at 11:27 pm
#2158
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I am betting half units too. Least we forget the CFL is coming.
Looks like the over in WAS is not looking good. It’ early.
March 25, 2015 at 11:50 pm
#2159
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
TOR + 3 points to start the 2nd half. 2.2 units.
March 25, 2015 at 11:56 pm
#2161
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
So TOR pissed away last night’s game in DET. They were looking ahead to this game
tonight vs CHI. I see a max effort on TOR’s part, this 2nd half.
This is going to be a close game but I will take the points with the home team who know
if they lose this game, after last night’s game, there will be hell to pay.
March 26, 2015 at 12:37 am
#2167
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Having watched every TOR game this season. I have to admit to myself… I don’t care for
Amir Johnson. Trade this guy! Get ride of him. There I said it.
March 26, 2015 at 12:58 am
#2168
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I hope my book spends my 2.2 units more wisely than I did. Damn Raptors.
March 26, 2015 at 7:36 pm
#2223
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 34-29-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 60-42-2 in the Klondike.
The SOS ATS system is now 0-4 in this Klondike.
MIL -1.5 (SOS 11) W 1.5 (L7 vs 36-37)
When the ATS line moves 1.5 WITH the pick, 4-1.
March 26, 2015 at 7:46 pm
#2225
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Raptors giving you a rough time eh?
March 26, 2015 at 7:57 pm
#2227
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
mlb.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers/index.jsp?c_id=mlb
Check out Anderson’s numbers vs SDP hitters.
This is too good to pass up. SDP is going to throttle these guys.
I might play a fantasy lineup with them too…
SDP ML 1 unit to risk
March 26, 2015 at 7:58 pm
#2228
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Dang too late! Argh!
March 26, 2015 at 8:26 pm
#2229
Reply
Bon
Hey guys, just curious: What can I find in the MLB database when I purchase the
membership? I was thinking of going through the last few seasons and making my own MLB
database but if this has the headings I’m looking for I’ll just skip the work and
purchase the membership! lol
March 27, 2015 at 3:42 am
#2252
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Which database? There are 3 of them.
Even if I were to only cover the Smart Database, it would take a whole page.
I mean…I don’t know where to start. Try this tutorial:
March 27, 2015 at 3:52 pm
#2294
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Fri Mar 27 Smart Stat plays.
DET @ ORL Over 197
MIA @ ATL Under 194.5
Another SOS winner last night. I hop we have a couple tonight. lol.
March 27, 2015 at 4:43 pm
#2296
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 34-29-1 in the Klondike.
The SOS WTS system is now 60-42-2 in the Klondike.
The SOS ATS system is now 1-4 in this Klondike.
Today’s SOS WTS picks:
PHI +10.5 (SOS 6) A 2.0 (L7 vs 44-57)
NYK +8.5 (SOS 8) A 1.0 (L7 vs 36-49)
MEM +3.5 (SOS 6) W 0.5 (L7 vs 58-67)
SAC +7 (SOS 12) W 0.5 (L7 vs 54-47)
DAL +8.5 (SOS 14) A 1.0 (L7 vs 61-57)
SOS ATS:
DEN -3.5 (SOS 10) W 2.0 (L7 vs 49-44)
PHX -2 (SOS 16) A 3 (L7 vs 58-41)
DET -2 (SOS 16) Even (L7 vs 52-35)
That’s a TON of overhead….Not sure what I want to do with this….I think the system still
deserves respect and sniping bets isn’t how it works….
I’m betting ’em all, but I’m sticking with a 1/2 unit in case it’s starting to run it’s
course on the back of the few losing days we had recently….
March 27, 2015 at 4:44 pm
#2297
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
(betting all the SOS WTS and SMART picks…not the SOS ATS.)
March 27, 2015 at 4:51 pm
#2299
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Big big big big day today brother McGrath and brother Bon.
Can we earn today?
We’ll have to let the teams answer the questions for us.
March 27, 2015 at 4:53 pm
#2301
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
We could bet full units, McGrath, but no matter what, I think we’re doing the right
thing betting half. We didn’t shake on our systems for almost 2 straight months. There
is a reason why last week we felt a lack in confidence and we’d be wise to stay with a
1/2 unit until it proves that it was a fluke.
March 27, 2015 at 5:25 pm
#2302
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Big night indeed. All bets are in.
March 27, 2015 at 10:29 pm
#2321
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I got my Raptor money back last night. Nice. Half units all around for me tonight.
7 plays total. It would be nice for both systems to hit at the same time tonight.
I stopped tracking top 15 plays. It doesn’t seem to make a difference. Pretty soon all
games will be top 15 plays with the playoffs coming soon.
March 27, 2015 at 10:38 pm
#2322
Reply
Bon
Wow! Huge night, I almost missed out today. Good luck tonight guys
March 27, 2015 at 10:48 pm
#2323
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Hey Bon. Why not spend 20 bucks and get a month’s worth of access to the database. 20
bucks, that’s it. Ron doesn’t care. He is not going to retire with 20 bucks. I will just
assume you have made more than that just following our 2 systems for the past month.
March 28, 2015 at 12:24 am
#2332
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I think we’ll be OK man. I know that the first time I tracked this system, I tracked it
into the beginning of the playoffs. I had to stop due to life not allowing me to sit
down and track all of ATS on a spreadsheet everyday, but I went back and found this
little diddy. I know of a few others for NBA as well. When forecast and stars are
strong, it’s a big deal, stars and SOS is a big deal. Lots of areas of ATSSTATS need
strong combined trends in several areas to mean something significant.
Let’s see how this SOS WTS plays out tonight.
CMON MONEY!
March 28, 2015 at 12:26 am
#2333
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
As for ATS, yeah, we could really use some help finding and tracking winning systems.
The more of us there are to find trends this year, the easier we’ll be able to make
money next year this time of season.
It’s time I start tracking all of ATSSTATS again, but I don’t have the 8 hours a day to
do it anymore…we could really use help. The gold is sitting right there. We just have to
mine it.
March 28, 2015 at 4:38 am
#2348
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 36-29-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 61-46-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 3-5 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
March 28, 2015 at 3:05 pm
#2356
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 36-29-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 61-46-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 3-5 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
Today’s Picks:
ATL -1 (SOS 8) W 1.5 (L7 vs 57-34)
OKL -2 (SOS 22) W 4 (L7 vs 62-35)
When the line moves WITH our pick, (ATS and WTS combined), the result is 16-5.
I will be betting the line moves today.
Both picks for a full unit.
March 28, 2015 at 3:11 pm
#2357
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB – I’m taking HOUSTON ASTROS ML. 1 unit to risk.
March 28, 2015 at 3:28 pm
#2358
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sat Mar 28 Smart Stat plays.
ATL @ CHA Under 191.5
G.S. @ MIL Under 199.5
G.S. has burned us in the past as the highest scoring team in the NBA.
I am on all 4 plays today. Geez last night was disappointing.
March 28, 2015 at 4:07 pm
#2359
Reply
Bon
NYK at +3000 to win outright over the Bulls. Well worth a 1 unit punt IMO
March 28, 2015 at 7:15 pm
#2363
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Ah Bon! Going for the half-court buzzer beater! Good luck mate!
Yeah McGrath. It was a shucks kind of a night last night.
Let’s see what happens here today.
I’m thinking of switching my bets to the ride the moves.
SOS WTS/ATS + 1.5 Line Moves with the pick are 16-5.
That’s DEADLY. Let’s hope it stays that way.
The only thing I hate about 16-5 is that it often means NOT that I’ve found a system but
that I’m about to bet a system that’s going to get struck by PARITY
Only one way to find out….
Let’s go SOS Line Move system!!!
March 29, 2015 at 5:02 pm
#2428
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 36-31-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 61-46-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 3-5 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
Today’s SOS WTS + ATS:
PHI +16.5 (SOS 6) W 0.5 (L7 vs 44-58)
DET +2.5 (SOS 17) A 0.5 (L7 vs 58-51)
MEM +7.5 (SOS 7) A 0.5 (L7 vs 55-56)
DAL +1.5 (SOS 16) Even (L7 vs 58-38)
PHX +2.5 (SOS 5) W 3.0 (L7 vs 51-52)
LAC -5 (SOS 11) W 1.0 (L7 vs 63-48)
HOU -2 (SOS 11) Even (L7 vs 61-47)
I don’t know what to bet today.
I noticed with MLB that the better batting team, when priced as chalk, does well.
Yesterday better batting teams went 8-2.
…but when add the beginning of the spring training, it’s more like 8-8
So…
All of the early games with teams batting stronger, their pitching is inferior.
Let me see if there is something to bet a little later in the day…
The only teams with better batting and arguably starting pitchers:
SAN DIEGO PADRES
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Half unit on each.
March 29, 2015 at 5:10 pm
#2430
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Sun Mar 29 Smart Stat plays.
LAL @ BRK Over 199.5
OKC @ PHO Under 214.5
Runner up… PHI @ CLE Under 201
March 29, 2015 at 8:02 pm
#2444
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I have to bail on NBA man. I’ll need to start up my spreadsheet again, track EVERYTHING,
and find out where it’s strong this time of year. Unfortunately, I don’t have the hours
of time that it takes to find another system such as the SOS system.
And when we start adding exterior considerations (umping, chalk/dog, home away, recent
streaks) then it’s actually literally impossible to track it all at the same time.
First thing I’ll track with MLB 2 weeks in will be massive star differences (green and
blue vs red) between evenly priced teams.
I watched this system connect with massive effect applied to NCAAF…I wonder if it can
comment on MLB PK games as well.
March 30, 2015 at 3:32 pm
#2492
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well Smart Stats went a perfect 2-0 last night. Even the runner up play was a winner.
Mon Mar 30th Smart Stat plays.
No plays for today. Boo. Oh wells it happens.
March 30, 2015 at 5:13 pm
#2502
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 38-31-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 62-50-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 5-5 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
March 30, 2015 at 5:21 pm
#2505
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MIL +7.5 (SOS 7) A 1.0 (L7 vs 47-51)
SAC +7.5 (SOS 10) Even (L7 vs 53-51)
PHX +7.5 (SOS 12) A 1.0 (L7 vs 53-45)
I’ll play SAC. Line Move is Even. Pick is WTS. And the SOS spread is 4 or less.
When the SOS spread is 4 or less, the team with the higher value wins 20-10.
March 30, 2015 at 5:42 pm
#2509
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Taking the Cubs for a 1/2 unit as well.
Wait…did I actually just say that? ?
March 30, 2015 at 5:50 pm
#2511
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
JUST FOR FUN:
CWS ML
CHC ML
LAD ML
HOU ML
MIN ML
TEX ML
SEA ML
I want to track which is more important.
Pitching vs Team history, or L5G or Overall ERA stats.
From yesterday alone:
L5: 2-6
Overall: 5-2
March 31, 2015 at 2:40 pm
#2584
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 38-31-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 62-53-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 5-5 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
We are, I think, officially, in a time of season where this system does not mind well.
This was predicted if you scroll ALL the way up.
OK. So I went back to my Spreadsheet and found some other systems that worked well from
Jan, late March. So it would be new ground but some other systems that proved useful
were the SOS+Forecast and SOS+PVI and SOS+Stars and Stars+PVI.
So instead of mixing the SOS with WTS, we’d mix it with positive PVI, Stars, and
Forecast ratings…as well as picks that had strong stars and positive PVI.
So keep in mind that this was for the span of the season that we just went through…but
the results were:
PVI+SOS = 9-2
SOS+Forecast = 7-3
PVI+Stars = 13-5
SOS+Stars = 14-5
Each of these considersations are defined and qualified clearly.
PVI = Teams must have a spread of at least 20 PVI points. The more PVI point spread NOT
the better! So this is just like SOS. We see small spreads equally effective to large
spreads. In fact, when the PVI spread was +35, the result was 19-22. (that’s PVI alone
and not combined with SOS).
SOS = Teams must have a spread of at least 5 SOS points. The more SOS point spread NOT
the better!
Forecast – ATS Sides must be at least 4 points. OU must be at least 9 points. (minimum
10 game sample).
Stars – Blue Star = 2 star pts, Green Star = 1 star pt, Red Star = -1 star pt.
This is an overall consideration. I don’t remember exactly how I counted it, but I think
that if a team had +5 or more overall Star points it qualified…I don’t remember if it
was at 5 or 10 pts.
I also tried tracking each star category separately for at least a few weeks but nothing
really stood out and 2-3 weeks isn’t enough. There is every possibility that Super Stats
slays in the beginning of the season but sucks at the end, and vice versa, and with each
column.
We see it with the Smart Stat category clearly. We have it going 60% for almost 2
months, and then it turned into under 40% once the season was out of the “sweet spot”.
I will continue to track SOS WTS+ATS, but this is only for record keeping purposes. The
system officially died the day we got skunked and had our faith in it shook. We’ve done
EXACTLY what we should which is back away from it slowly. It went 1-4 the other day and
I didn’t lose a single dime because I have too much experience with this to stay on a
sinking ship.
I think what makes people stay is the fact that they have no other systems to bet and so
they feel “lost” without the system that was productive a month ago. This means that
they entertain the idea that they should “double up” as if the system is “due” to come
storming back with win after win.
Big mistake.
Anyway.
I’ll keep at it and hopefully find something here in my old spreadsheets, but frankly, I
don’t have this time of season tracked at all. So everything is fresh and unknown.
Officially we’re back in theoretical systems.
March 31, 2015 at 3:17 pm
#2585
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
No SOS WTS today.
SOS ATS picks for today:
DET -3 (SOS 20) W 2.5 (L7 vs 59-49)
BKY -3 (SOS 14) A 0.5 (L7 vs 58-42)
LAC -1.5 (SOS 6) W 1.5 (L7 vs 66-71)
March 31, 2015 at 3:32 pm
#2588
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SOS+ System (theoretical for this time of year):
SOS + Forecast (4pts or more)
DET
BKY (Forecast with IND)
LAC (Forecast with LAC)
SOS + PVI
DET None with a 25 pt spread
BKY None with a 25 pt spread
LAC None with a 25 pt spread
SOS + Stars 19 pts
DET (19 Stars with ATL)
BKY
LAC
PVI + Stars
No significant PVI.
So we see, LAC is the one pick for today.
The numbers for these systems might look low, but they were sniped across 2-3 months. So
although they’re rare, they connected with high effect.
Hopefully the systems are still relevant this time of year.
March 31, 2015 at 4:05 pm
#2592
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
TOR (19 rung batting adv)(L5 Pitching “equal”)(’15 Spring Training “advantage”)
LAD (21 rung batting adv)(L5 Pitching “equal”)(’15 Spring Training “advantage”)
HOU (19 rung batting adv)(L5 Pitching “equal”)(’15 Spring Training “equal”)
March 31, 2015 at 4:09 pm
#2594
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Good work Batman!!
When I click on NBA section of the database it just reloads the main page again. Any
thoughts?
March 31, 2015 at 4:24 pm
#2596
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
That LA Clipper spread is jumping like a jack rabbit. Follow the money. Yeehaw.
March 31, 2015 at 4:40 pm
#2597
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA worked fine for me man. 2 hours ago and now. It’s working fine.
You’re talking about the NBA on the front page that opens all the different games where
you can then look at the stars?
Weird. It’s been working fine for me all morning.
Is it still doing it?
March 31, 2015 at 4:41 pm
#2598
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
By the way…it should read: (’15 Spring Training Pitching)
March 31, 2015 at 6:09 pm
#2604
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Ya I just tried. Even MLB or NHL when clicked on you don’t go to the games listed and
then select a game to see the stars. It keeps reloading the main page.
March 31, 2015 at 9:38 pm
#2616
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Same issue. I guess there will be no Smart Stat plays today. If there were any in the
first place.
March 31, 2015 at 9:42 pm
#2617
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I bet my subscription is up. I bet that is it.
March 31, 2015 at 10:31 pm
#2620
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I can’t sign back up. Something about my email or Visa card being attached to Pay Pal. I
closed that account years ago!! Fuck Pay Pal!!!!!! I will never sign back up for that
service ever!!!!!!!
Hmm. What to do? Ron I can cut you a check. lol.
March 31, 2015 at 11:14 pm
#2624
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
There were no Smart plays today McGrath.
If there are 4 Over and 1 Under, you don’t count that as +3.
It’s only if there are ONLY at least 3 Overs correct?
Also, let me see about what I can to to front you a month’s payment or whatever to get
you back up and running ASAP here McGrath.
April 1, 2015 at 3:58 am
#2639
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Ron’s looking into it right now. I asked him if he’d be willing to front me a month and
hook you back up.
Catch ya on the flip man!
April 1, 2015 at 4:06 pm
#2640
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I’m back. Yaa.
Wed April 1st Smart Stat plays.
PHI @ WAS Under 193
IND @ BOS Over 201
DEN @ UTH Under 194
LAC @ POR Under 210.5
N.O. @ LAL Over 193.5
Big Night.
April 1, 2015 at 7:05 pm
#2641
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s Picks:
DET +4.5 (SOS 12) A 1.0 (L7 vs 57-40)
SAC +11 (SOS 13) W 1.0 (L7 vs 51-54)
LAC +2.5 (SOS 7) Even (L7 vs 64-52)
LAL +7 (SOS 6) A 1.0 (L7 vs 46-51)
BKY -9.5 (SOS 16) Even (L7 vs 62-27)
OKL -2.5 (SOS 5) A 0.5 (L7 vs 60-49)
TOR -7.5 (SOS 11) W 2.0 (L7 vs 54-34)
UTA -3 (SOS 6) W 2.5 (L7 vs 46-37)
These are only to be tracked, NOT bet.
I abandoned ship 2 days before the system went 1-4.
I refuse to give the money back that easily.
April 1, 2015 at 7:42 pm
#2642
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The NBA picks for today would be:
DET +4.5 (SOS+Stars)
OKL -2.5 (SOS+Forecast)
TOR -7.5 (SOS+Stars)
April 1, 2015 at 7:47 pm
#2643
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 38-31-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 62-53-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 7-6 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
April 1, 2015 at 10:44 pm
#2644
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well another big night. Half units all around for me. My 5 plays and your 3 plays. If we
get torpedoed it might be time to let the last 2 weeks of the NBA slip away and wait for
he playoffs.
April 2, 2015 at 4:19 am
#2645
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I already stepped off, completely 2 days before WTS went 1-3.
I’m completely done with that for this time of year.
I predicted we’d have 2 months of 60% and I was right.
I predicted that the system would get shaky after 2 months and I was right.
This is where I wish we had 20 of us, last year, working at the Klondike, collecting
data on spreadsheets, so that we could seamlessly shift to a better system for this time
of year.
How do we know that the Raymond Report doesn’t have a KEY consideration that would have
given us a 15-5 L20G HAD WE ONLY LOOKED INTO IT??
That’s the thing.
The amount of data collecting is COPIOUS, but if you’re looking at 60% consistency,
season after season, even if it is for only 2 months, that’s a nest egg right there.
There has got to be some kick ass system that’s firing on all cylinders right now. What
if it’s the Super Stats Matchups section? What if it’s Forecast? What if it’s PVI? What
if it’s simply fading PVI?
So much to do, so little time!
Haha.
This is a beautiful hobby man!!!
April 2, 2015 at 4:26 am
#2646
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 40-34-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 64-55-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 9-8 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
April 2, 2015 at 3:54 pm
#2647
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s NBA Pick:
GSW -11 (SOS 6) W 1.5 (L7 vs 76-49)
April 2, 2015 at 4:16 pm
#2648
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Thurs April 2 Smart Stat plays.
MIA @ CLE Under 195.5
HOU @ DAL Over 211
That’s it. Long weekend. Nice.
April 2, 2015 at 4:20 pm
#2649
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB picks for today:
BAL ML
OAK ML
April 2, 2015 at 4:26 pm
#2650
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
What the heck, may as well…
Forecast is decisive with Milwaukee as well.
MIL ML as well.
April 3, 2015 at 1:14 am
#2651
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Watching the MIA @ CLE game. 2nd half.
CLE -2.5 to start the 2nd half.
CLE up by 11 points. This means CLE must win or cover by 14 points.
April 3, 2015 at 1:25 am
#2652
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
No Wade for the 2nd half. Nice.
April 3, 2015 at 4:48 am
#2653
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
CLE gets the 2nd half job done. The game went over so I got that money back. DAL game
goes under. 0-2 for Smart Stats tonight.
At this time of the year in the NBA it is time to stop betting on the games as a whole
and start watching the games and betting on the 2nd half.
The database has been good to us up until now but the playoffs are right around the
corner and soon the database won’t have much to say about the NBA. This is why I watch
the games and learned to bet the 2nd half of games. That is except for the Toronto
Raptors.
I will handle the other games but Mr. Writer you are responsible for all Raptor 2nd half
selections once the playoffs begin. lol.
We are still in the game.
April 3, 2015 at 3:42 pm
#2654
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 40-36-1 in the Klondike. (Since Early February)
The SOS WTS system is now 64-55-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 9-9 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
Today’s picks:
SOS WTS:
NYK +15 (SOS 7) W 0.5 (L7 vs 31-44)
MIL +5 (SOS 9) A 0.5 (L7 vs 53-53)
SAC +6 (SOS 9) A 0.5 (L7 vs 50-51)
SOS ATS:
MEM -3.5 (SOS 10) W 3.0 (L7 vs 58-50)
SAS -12.5 (SOS 14) Even (L7 vs 61-35)
Yeah man, I think that we might be wasting our time dealing with this section of the
season. If I had the time, I would be tracking other theoretical systems.
That said, there is a small chance that the way that Vegas prices games will reset when
the playoffs start…our systems MIGHT be back in play at that point…
Also, there is a chance that something in the database would be giving us a +65% win
rate ratio right now.
(NYK) (NYK Matchups +8)
MIL
(SAC) (SAC PVI +22)
MEM
(SAS) (SAS Forecast +5.02) (SAS Matchups +8)
My NBA Picks:
SAS 1 unit
MEM 1/2 u
MIL 1/2 u
April 3, 2015 at 6:06 pm
#2661
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MBL picks:
MIL
TOR
BOS
NYM
CHI
OAK
April 3, 2015 at 6:07 pm
#2662
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well 1 Smart Stat Stat play for today…. Who cares. Wrong time of the season.
I see we have a Raptor game tonight. Are you up for watching this game and investing in
the 2nd half? Raptor games are your games if you choose to accept this responsibly. I
will handle all of the other games. As long as I can watch them on TV.
April 3, 2015 at 6:11 pm
#2663
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OK so what about combining PVI and SOS together?
The theory is as follows:
-SOS proves that they are playing some better ball L7 compared to L14.
-PVI shows that they are due.
Couldn’t the combination of these ideas give a special validity to a team that’s had a
few losses but is overall playing better than normal?
But my issue with that is that for them to have a large PVI advantage, they will be up
against a team that’s been playing very strong lately…
So what about instances where *both* teams are +60% PVI…but team A has an 8 point SOS
advantage over team B (comparing L14 to L7)?
April 3, 2015 at 6:16 pm
#2664
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I’m extremely foreign to 2nd Half betting, and also, my mission statement is to PROVE
that ATSSTATS is effective.
Q: “Why should I get ATSSTATS?”
A: “Because it makes you $$$.”
Q: “I got a subscription, but I seem to barely break even. How do I use it to make
money?”
A: “________________________.”
So far that “_________” is filled with:
-your Smart Stats system from ? until mid-March.
-my SOS system
-my low-spread NCAAF “blue/red matchups” games all season.
-my low-spread NBA “blue/red matchups” games until end of December. (NOT in January
where the system drastically flipflops and should be faded.)
Now we need more.
Lots more.
I’m dealing with 2 questions:
1. HOW CAN ATSSTATS HELP ME?
2. PROVE IT.
It’s blatently clear that if I can answer those two questions that ATSSTATS will
basically buy me, and anyone else, a brand new car every year.
That’s what the Klondike is about.
April 3, 2015 at 8:55 pm
#2666
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
MLB.
I am going to take a shot with TOR tonight in MTL vs CIN.
TOR -1 run, +1.25. Half unit.
NBA. I will watch TOR @ BRK tonight and bet on the 2nd half.
April 4, 2015 at 12:17 am
#2667
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. Live in play wager.
TOR to win the match outright. Half unit -1.10
2nd half coming up.
April 4, 2015 at 12:25 am
#2668
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA.
TOR + 2.5 to start the 2nd half.
April 4, 2015 at 12:27 am
#2669
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
So far so good with your TOR wager…
April 4, 2015 at 1:57 pm
#2679
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Year after year I’ve seen you bank CFL with 2nd half wagers.
What’s your NBA record so far this season?
April 4, 2015 at 4:47 pm
#2681
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 40-36-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2 – April 2nd)
The SOS WTS system is now 67-55-2 in the Klondike (Since Early February).
The SOS ATS system is now 11-9 in this Klondike (Since Late March).
SOS went 5-0 last night! What’s going on??
Was these last 2 weeks some massive coincidental speed-bump? Only one way to find out.
KEEP MINING!
Today’s NBA SOS picks:
DET +1 (SOS 13) A 1.0 (L7 vs 51-45)
BKY +8 (SOS 10) A 1.5 (L7 vs 64-45)
CHA -8.5 (SOS 14) A 1.5 (L7 vs 43-32)
TOR -3 (SOS 5) W 0.5 (L7 vs 53-52)
MEM -7.5 (SOS 12) Even (L7 vs 59-44)
GSW -3.5 (SOS 14) W 2.5 (L7 vs 78-45)
MIL -8 (SOS 14) Even (L7 vs 59-38)
LAC -8 (SOS 19) W 2.0 (L7 vs 67-37)
PHX -1.5 (SOS 8) A 0.5 (L7 vs 46-43)
April 4, 2015 at 4:57 pm
#2683
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Better batting teams WITH some kind of pitching advantage are 22-17. in the last 6 days
of Spring Training.
NOTE: The majority of these instances were not underdogs, so this would be an even money
proposition.
April 4, 2015 at 5:16 pm
#2684
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
In Spring Training, where a team had a 5 or more rung advantage on hitting (.OPS)….They
were able to win despite having disadvantages in the L5G and Overall Spring Training ERA
due to their hitting, 3-1. So the hitting seems to have more purchase.
This is further underscored when we see that when the starter has BOTH L5G and overall
Spring Training ERA, that prediction whether the pitching should lose or whether the
pitching should win is a revealing 1-5.
Also, it should be added that we might look at systems that only deal with WTS picks.
something tells me (I haven’t taken the 10 hours to sort it out) that teams that are
priced at -150 actually only deserve -140 ratings. It’s my experience that ALL bettor,
public and pro, have a bias to ATS picks and this must translate to Vegas overvaluing
WTS lines and undervaluing ATS lines.
April 4, 2015 at 5:16 pm
#2685
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
(That said, Spring Training is highly dynamic. Everything gets shifted and shuffled, but
that said, the hitting cometency stays relatively static.)
April 4, 2015 at 5:52 pm
#2686
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA picks for today:
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -3.5 (1/3 unit)
Why? Because GSW qualifies under both SOS and Stars.
Why only a 1/2 unit? Because DAL competes in the PVI category.
DETROIT PISTONS +1 (1/3 unit)
Why? Because DET qualifies under both SOS and Forecast.
Why only a 1/2 unit? Because MIA competes in the Stars category.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -8 (2/3 unit)
Why? Because LAC qualifies under both SOS and Stars.
Why a 2/3 unit? Because LAC has no competition.
PHOENIX SUNS -1.5 (1 unit)
Why? Because PHX competes in both SOS and PVI as well as PVI and Stars.
Why 1 unit? Because PHX has no competition.
April 4, 2015 at 5:57 pm
#2687
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I don’t keep a record for NBA 2nd half wagers. It’s about even. Last night sucked that’s
for sure. TOR teams gave it up.
I laid off the 1 Smart Stat play. OKC @ MEM under 203 which was a winner.
4 plays today.
PHI @ CHA Under 189
BOS @ TOR Under 207.5
MIA @ DET Over 190.5
ORL @ MIL Under 194
I am going to play these 4 games for a small amount.
I also played the Jays again today. Up 2 runs so far.
April 4, 2015 at 7:00 pm
#2688
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
MLB. Well I see we missed a “Slaughter Play” with ARI. On Thurs ARI was at home and beat
CWS 10-2, then on Fri they were at home and beat CHC 5-1.
When a team playing at home and wins by 7 or more runs and is playing at home their next
game, take them.
We should keep an eye out for this moving forward.
I am going to take a shot with K.C. This afternoon.
April 4, 2015 at 11:06 pm
#2693
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Just using MLB SOS, 5 teams qualified.
BOS, NYM, SEA, K.C. And SFG. 4-0-1 for the day. Not bad.
Well I hope we have a good night on the hard courts.
April 4, 2015 at 11:50 pm
#2694
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I cut and pasted this from another site. It did really well last April.
Buchholz, Clay • 10-5 (6-3 H)
Boston decided to maximize Buchholz’s early season value by making him their opening day
starter. Long on talent and inconsistency, the BoSox right-hander needs to focus and
eliminate distractions, which is something he’s struggled with his whole career, except
for mostly in April.
Bumgarner, Madison • 11-5 (6-1 A)
When looking at baseball from the start of the season until Halloween, Clayton Kershaw
has somebody who can steal his thunder as the game’s best pitcher. His World Series
performance was for the ages and he’s never been too bad the start the season either
with his array of fastballs, cutters and changeups.
Gonzalez, Gio • 13-4 (8-1 H)
Throughout his career, Gonzalez has started fast and been able to mix and match pitches
effectively. Though his velocity was off a little in the second half of last season, his
command improved and walks dropped. He’s now arguably the worst starting pitcher in
Washington which tells you about their staff. Gonzalez has been money at home throughout
his career.
Greinke, Zack • 11-2 (6-1 H)
To borrow from Dos Equis beer, when on the mound, Zack Greinke might be the most
interesting man in the world – or at least baseball. The fact is Greinke is just really
good at throwing a baseball, has a creative mind and taught himself variations of arm
angles and grip pressure and takes great pride in his hitting. Whatever team he has been
on, he’s made it almost impossible to bet against him at home.
Guthrie, Jeremy • 10-4 (5-1 H)
Since becoming a starter in 2007, this durable right-hander has thrown at least 175
innings each season (five of the last six 200 or more). For almost any team in baseball
Guthrie is the ideal No.4 or 5 starter and his pitch to contact is a perfect match in
Kansas City when the defenders are like vacuum cleaners and clean everything up.
*Hammel, Jason • 13-5 (5-1 H)
Middle of the rotation starter who actually wanted to return and pitch for the Cubs,
after starting last season at Wrigley before being traded to Oakland. Hammel is not
going to overpower hitters, but if he keeps the ball in the yard, he can be effective.
In his major league career the 32-year has been a fast starter.
Hudson, Tim • 10-3 (8-0 H)
Hudson will be 40 years old this season, but still throws strikes and coaxes ground
balls to get batters out. It would make sense this juncture of his career he would be
more effective early in the season compared to later in the year.
Lincecum, Tim • 10-5 (5-2 H)
Lincecum is back in the starting rotation for San Francisco and will remain there as
long as he does his job. He spent the off-season working with his dad, who helped design
his unusual throwing style. The spring results were mixed, so let’s see if Tiny Tim can
hang on to his slot in the rotation with a strong start.
*Lohse, Kyle • 12-4 (6-2 H)
Lohse is yet another hurler who is at his best when at full strength. Milwaukee’s
opening day pitcher successfully made the transition from thrower to pitcher and has
complete command of the strike zone with his tight mechanics.
Lynn, Lance • 12-3 (8-2 A)
The 6’5 right-hander last season decided to use less of his spotty off-speed pitches and
instead focused on getting more movement on his two or four-seam fastballs and lowered
his ERA by more than a run to 2.74. Lynn is part of the reason St. Louis seldom gets off
to rocky starts.
Miley, Wade • 9-4 (5-2 A)
Miley pitched for a bad Arizona outfit last year and his focus suffered, with career-
highs in ERA, hits allowed and balls over the fence. The lefty has a fresh start in
Boston with a renovated squad in search of a division pennant.
Nicasio, Juan • 10-5 (6-2 H)
Will start the season in the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen.
Nova, Ivan • 8-4 (5-1 H)
In the midst of returning from Tommy John surgery, no exact timetable is set for Nova’s
return.
Peavy, Jake • 10-5 (6-3 H)
Not the hard thrower he used to be, Peavy has to keep the ball down and change speeds
more frequently to get batters out. When he settles in groove, can string together a
number of quality starts.
*Shields, James • 11-5 (8-3 A)
As reliable and consistent as they come, Shields is an ideal No. 2 or 3 pitcher. Though
his famous changeup was not as good as prior years, he found the cutter to be his out
pitch in 2014. Should flourish in San Fran.
Zimmermann, Jordan • 10-5 (6-3 H)
Among the finest starters in the National League, Zimmermann in unyielding to opposing
hitters in working the strike zone and seldom helps them out in averaging less than two
walks per nine innings.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Bedard, Eric • 3-9 (1-4 H)
The Dodgers non-roster pitcher is expected to miss four to six weeks with a strain of
the same back muscle that shelved Clayton Kershaw for five weeks last season.
Cahill, Trevor • 4-9 (2-7 A)
Cahill was traded from Arizona to Atlanta on April 3rd. Though only 27 years old, this
former 18-game winner has recently been in the minors and a big league starter and
reliever and not having much success doing anything well. His problem is being a sinker
ball pitcher and lacking command in the strike zone.
Cain, Matt • 4-10 (2-8 A)
The San Francisco workhorse finally gave in to the pain and had elbow surgery and has
been slow to recover this spring, still having some “discomfort”. Cain as his record
shows is typically a slow starter anyways and could be in worse shape to begin 2015.
Hamels, Cole • 4-8 (1-5 H)
The Phillies lefthander will not be on their roster the entire season as the Phils are
waiting for the perfect deal to trade Hamels. His slow starts are mostly attributable to
not having a feel for his complete arsenal of pitches in April and performs better when
the weather heats up.
*Jackson, Edwin • 4-12 (2-6 H)
The Cubs are stuck with this veteran righty having given him a dumb contract back in
2013. Just think, how many pitchers would still be in the big leagues after 11 years
with a career 84-104 record, an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.46?
Volquez, Edinson • 5-11 (1-6 A)
Now with his sixth different team, the 31-year right-hander was 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA
with Pittsburgh last year, his best season since 2008 and he signed a two-year free
agent deal with Kansas City. His surprising campaign came when Pirates coaches noticed a
rushed delivery was elevating his pitches and slowed him down, leading to last season’s
results. Will Volquez stay the course or return to old habits?
I hope I am not breaking any rules here.
April 4, 2015 at 11:59 pm
#2696
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
These are Smart plays for today? Should I resume tracking?
PHI @ CHA Under 189
BOS @ TOR Under 207.5
MIA @ DET Over 190.5
ORL @ MIL Under 194
April 5, 2015 at 12:00 am
#2697
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Agreed.
April 5, 2015 at 12:03 am
#2698
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
If MLB SOS plays ring true for MLB, even if it’s just for a month or two of 60%ish WL
results…I’ll be completely thrilled with that. COMPLETELY THRILLED.
Thanks for tracking that McGrath.
We’ll make sure to track that from week 3 onwards.
April 5, 2015 at 12:04 am
#2699
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I don’t think it’s a huge deal but we might want to always make sure to QUOTE the
source.
Like this…
Here is an article that I saw on BLABLABLA. It reads: “quote here”.
April 5, 2015 at 12:07 am
#2700
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Also, I could see SOS having some merit.
The fact that teams can bat like gods for 2 weeks straight and then not be able to hit
the most generous floaters down the pipe, or “cupcakes down broadstreet”….it lends
credence to the idea that hot streaks come and go.
SOS could bring us some rock solid WTS value.
It could well be the dogcatcher system that everyone is looking for.
April 5, 2015 at 12:11 am
#2701
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Let’s also try to never fade any of those “bad month pitchers” until they straighten up
and fly right.
April 5, 2015 at 4:34 am
#2705
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
My SOS systems are 7-0!
They appear to connect with or without contrary stats.
When SOS coincides with PVI/Mathcups/Forecast, or when PVI and Matchups match up…
…GOOD THINGS HAPPEN!
This is another angle we can attack MLB with, by the way. If SOS doesn’t connect, this
well might.
There is a huge question as to how many of the recent SOS losses would have been side-
stepped with this system.
April 5, 2015 at 4:35 am
#2706
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Thanks hugely for sampling the MLB SOS stats man. You might have just tapped us into a
vein that could connect with MLB. Tracking it right from the jump will be a huge bonus.
April 5, 2015 at 3:46 pm
#2714
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
9 SOS games last night.
5 Games Lost.
4 Games BET and 4 Games WON.
SNIPER!
If THIS is the kind of quality that ATSSTATS can provide…we are ground floor on the
hottest thing in sports handicapping without question.
April 5, 2015 at 3:47 pm
#2715
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I was going to call it the SOS Combo Plus system, but I think I’ll just call it the
Sniper system on the back of yesterday’s results.
April 5, 2015 at 3:51 pm
#2716
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
One early play for Smart Stats.
HOU @ OKC Under 217
It’s the first game on the board. Trap game? Is it the spread or total? I find these 2
early games tend to unfold like this. If the first game goes under then the 2nd game
will go over. Will it happen today?
April 5, 2015 at 4:16 pm
#2718
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 44-37-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS WTS system is now 68-56-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS ATS system is now 14-13 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The SOS Sniper system is now 8-2 (Since Late March).
Today’s SOS qualifiers:
HOU +1 (SOS 15) A 0.5 (L7 vs 63-42)
CHI +8.5 (SOS 16) A 0.5 (L7 vs 57-68)
GSW +4.5 (SOS 8) A 2.0 (L7 vs 78-60)
SAC -1 (SOS 14) W 1.5 (L7 vs 46-39)
IND -6 (SOS 10) Even (L7 vs 51-47)
SOS Sniper system has no comment on today’s games.
April 5, 2015 at 4:18 pm
#2719
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I noticed that when there is something too good to be true in the last games of the day
on the pacific coast, it tends to be extremely trappish almost without fail.
Same with the first block of games.
It may well carry over to NBA.
April 5, 2015 at 4:29 pm
#2721
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
How the heck to you go about tracking Forecast advantages in a ML system??
ATS was super easy. 4 point discrepancy and that’s the end of it.
But how should we interpret the ML sliding scale?
Assuming the price is PK…then a run difference of 0.5 runs is significant?
1.0 run difference is significant?
1.5?
How do we suss this one out…
April 5, 2015 at 4:46 pm
#2723
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB Sniper Play:
CHICAGO CUBS +104
CHI SOS +7 pts.
CHI Forecast +0.53 pts.
This model assumes that a 0.5 point advantage in the forecast, at PK prices, is
significant. It could take some time to dial in.
April 5, 2015 at 4:54 pm
#2724
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I hear ya baby. We should tread lightly the first couple of weeks. We still have SOS to
start with. Identify those games and then look to see what the database says. Keep an
eye out for winning pitchers in April. The ML will eliminate half the games on just
being to expensive ( I have never had any luck laying the 1.5 run lines )
2 more Smart Stat plays.
PHI @ NYK Under 187
UTH @ SAC Over 190
I have already played the early game Under 217 and will wait the outcome of that game
befor anything else.
April 5, 2015 at 5:00 pm
#2725
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I agree about the Cubs. Better Raymond report as well. Also PVI + teams % of winning
their next game. Just something I track as well. All pointing to a Cubs win tonight.
Good ML price.
Interesting that these same stats identified PHI in the NBA as a winner today. 57 and 50
vs 46 and 44.
I just want this first NBA game to be a winner and go from there.
April 5, 2015 at 5:57 pm
#2728
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. 2nd half play.
HOU @ OKC. OKC -2 points to start the 2nd half. If this game goes over it will be
because OKC makes a comeback. OKC down 8 at the half.
April 5, 2015 at 7:14 pm
#2729
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
In the mean time.
CHI @ CLE Over 194. This line dropped 5.5 points. I will take the Over 194. I also
played CHI + 8 points.
April 5, 2015 at 8:34 pm
#2730
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
PASS on the 2nd half of the CHI @ CLE.
The line is 1.5
Put a gun to my head I would take CLE -1.5 points. I don’t like going against my
original plays. If I was to stick with CHI + 8 then I would take CHI + 1.5 for this 2nd
half. because of this I will pass. The over is looking good, barley. lol. For that total
to drop 5 or more points means a lot of people or 1 big guy is sweating it out right
now. lol.
That many points, always go the opposite. We shall see.
April 5, 2015 at 9:59 pm
#2732
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Another crazy game. lol. SOS WTS gets the job done. The game lands on 193. The game goes
under. Too bad.
I decided to play IND -6 points vs MIA.
We still have GS as a play. 7 O’Clock start. The under in the PHI @ NYK NBA game 7:30
start. SAC -2 and the over 190 which starts at 9:00 and in between all of this… We have
MLB starting tonight.
I have already bet the Cubs. The over makes sense at 7 runs.
Crazy Sunday so far. lol. Pizza night! Nice.
April 5, 2015 at 10:14 pm
#2734
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I think we could be locked in tracking SOS WTS/ATS and SOS Sniper systems for the whole
season. From what we know, it can be extremely effective, even if it’s only for 6-8
weeks at a certain period of the year.
BTW, I was thinking about it…perhaps that playoff psychology screwed up the SOS? Perhaps
it would have been effective the whole NBA season and not just February on? It makes
sense that all kinds of teams will be playing “other than” basketball for the few weeks
before the playoffs? I wonder how many of our losses were teams that were on the bubble
and or teams that felt that they were basically locked in already and or teams that felt
they didn’t stand a chance?
Hmmm.
All I have on board is CHC ML.
2 hours to opening pitch.
Also, I’ve been tracking massive moves as far as ATS sides goes and when the pick moves
4 or more points, the move is correct 2-4.
Nice to have Spreadsheets for this kind of thing. No more messy quessy.
April 5, 2015 at 10:34 pm
#2735
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I will back PHI tonight vs NYK’s. It’s just a PVI plus % play. It tends to win. 1 unit
on this game.
MLB. Already on the Cubs. Enough said. I like the over 7 runs tonight. Hitters should be
way ahead of pitchers tonight. Maybe for the first week in general. All we need is just
1 of these pitchers to start slow and bingo… We have our over.
April 5, 2015 at 10:38 pm
#2736
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I have not checked which way the wind is blowing in or out at CHC tonight? Look at the
flags in the outfield during the opening telecast.
April 6, 2015 at 12:32 am
#2737
Reply
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April 6, 2015 at 2:34 am
#2740
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
“I will back PHI tonight vs NYK’s. It’s just a PVI plus % play. It tends to win. 1 unit
on this game.” – No it doesn’t. It really really doesn’t at all.
PVI alone tracked 43-49 with any spread.
20-29 point PVI spread tracked: 14-20
30-34 point PVI spread tracked: 10-7
+35 point PVI spread tracked: 19-22
April 6, 2015 at 2:43 am
#2741
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
That said, it has a place when used in combination with other categories.
I’d love to track how it does in combination with some of the different Ron’s Report
stats…be it dominant green or projected runs for / runs against.
In and of itself, don’t even bother.
Of everything I tracked almost nothing stood out by itself really.
And I tracked almost the whole site daily and scraped it for consistent success.
NBA SOS and NBA Blue Stars in the Totals column seemed to be decent in and of
themselves.
But I have yet to track MLB, CFL, NFL or anything else with any kind of proper analysis.
Unless we’re tracking it, raw numbers, it does us no good. It has us thinking areas are
strong when they’re losing and it has us thinking areas are losing when they’re winning.
IMAGINE that we had scraped the SOS stats at the worst part a week ago….or the 1-6 run
that turned into a +60% WL record over a month….
We’d have thrown that system in the garbage if not for having a reason to think there
was something to it based on the RAW NUMBERS.
You should start a spreadsheet McGrath, it’ll be the best choice you ever made I promise
you.
You can line everything up in columns and count everything SUPER easy and know EXACTLY
what you’re talking about at all times.
You can even work on it at work and then just email it to yourself for when you get
home!!
April 6, 2015 at 2:44 am
#2742
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Here man, try this out for weather:
www.baseball-weather.com/
April 6, 2015 at 2:45 am
#2743
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Try this for pitch FX on the umpires. It shows all their tendencies and where they call
strikes: www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php
Same thing for pitchers: pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/
April 6, 2015 at 3:04 am
#2744
Reply
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April 6, 2015 at 4:18 am
#2745
Reply
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April 6, 2015 at 3:25 pm
#2746
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I guess Ron has not got my check yet. I am locked out of the database.
MLB. Today I took…
BOS -1.20
BAL +1.10
April 6, 2015 at 3:31 pm
#2747
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
BOS @ PHI. Here we have a good month April pitcher vs a bad month April pitcher.
BAL @ TB. BAL is 9-3 their last 12 opening day games.
April 6, 2015 at 6:26 pm
#2751
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Database is screwy. The techs are working on it McGrath. It’s not just you man, it’s me
too.
BOS and BAL you say?
Then lets go 1/2 unit just ’cause you said so!
April 6, 2015 at 8:37 pm
#2754
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I hope they get this database fixed. We are flying Blind on the 2nd day of opening
baseball.
Good thing we did some early homework to give us something to work with.
April 6, 2015 at 9:10 pm
#2755
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Let’s look at tomorrow.
STL (Lynn) 12-3 in the month of April. 8-2 as an away starter.
CHC (Arrieta)
SDP (Ross)
LAD (Greinke) 11-2 in the month of April. 6-1 as a home starter.
STL already won game 1 last night. I can see them winning this game and giving game 3 to
CHC.
SDP are currently beating the LAD and that would set it up nicely for Greinke to get the
win tomorrow.
April 6, 2015 at 9:22 pm
#2757
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Looking ahead to Wednesday games we should consider this game.
NYM (de Grom)
WAS (Zimmerman) 10-5 in the month of April. 6-3 as a home starter.
April 6, 2015 at 10:27 pm
#2759
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well that’s better. 2-0 for today. We do have SFG with Bumgarner going tonight.
SFG (Bumgarner) 11-5 in the month of April. 6-1 as an away starter.
ARI (Collmenter)
For some reason this line is dropping? I have to imagine a lot of people will back SFG
tonight. Last game on the board. Super Bowl Hangover? Hmm.
We got 2 wins today. Do we need to push it? Tomorrows games are looking good. Tonight’s
game is a little pricey. NBA is a no go tonight!
Hmm.
April 6, 2015 at 10:43 pm
#2760
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
If I am a pitcher, I want to invest in tonight’s game. If I am a manager I want to shut
it down!! I think For tonight the manager in me is going to shut it down. I will pass on
tonight’s game.
Go to bed a winner. Nice.
April 6, 2015 at 10:56 pm
#2763
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I am sitting here rooting for the SDP’s to spoil the LAD home opener. It will se up our
Greinke play for tomorrow.
No here is the problem. The LAD were roughly -2.00 for today’s game. If they eventually
lose this game, what will they be priced at tomorrow? -2.40. Maybe we invest in the
first 4.5 inning line. Just to knock the game down in half. I have never had any luck
investing in the run line.
Maybe the LAD should win this afternoons game so we get a cheaper price on them
tomorrow.
Hmm.
April 6, 2015 at 11:37 pm
#2765
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
If you go runline, +1.5 is where the edge is, not -1.5.
No ATSSTATS still! Yup, go to bed winners and try again tomorrow.
April 6, 2015 at 11:59 pm
#2768
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Agreed. Good night Sir. Back tomorrow.
April 7, 2015 at 4:50 pm
#2778
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. Well no Smart Stat plays for today.
MLB. ATL @ MIA Under 7 runs. Now I know Smart Stats only works for NBA totals. Still I
will track these plays just for fun right now.
Good month / Bad month Pitchers.
STL (Lynn) 12-3 in the month of April. 8-2 as an away starter.
CHC (Arrieta)
The price is good on these pitchers. -1.05
SDP (Ross)
LAD (Greinke) 11-2 in the month of April. 6-1 as a home starter.
This 2nd game is a little pricey. -1.60 Too much juice for the ML. Will just have to lay
off this game. I still like ST. Louis at -1.05
Still looking at stuff. Looks like SOS WTS has 2 nice plays today. Maybe that is our 3
plays for today. 1 baseball and 2 NBA. It is still early.
April 7, 2015 at 10:35 pm
#2783
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I am happy to pass on NBA today. It figures, the one MLB game I really liked, got
postponed.
So, I decided to play LAD half unit and SEA same thing. CJ. Wilson is a pitcher to be
avoided. This guy will burn your bankroll faster than you can whistling Dixie.
What say you Mr. Writer?
April 7, 2015 at 11:24 pm
#2785
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 44-37-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS WTS system is now 68-56-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS ATS system is now 14-13 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The SOS Sniper system is now 8-2 (Since Late March).
Sorry man, I got absolutely wrapped up today.
I think I’m late for everything but maybe I’ll find a game on the West coast to bet.
April 7, 2015 at 11:25 pm
#2786
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MIN +8 (SOS 7) A 2.0 (L7 vs 34-39)
CHA +3 (SOS 8) A 3.0 (L7 vs 49-48)
ATL -9.5 (SOS 12) A 2.0 (L7 vs 58-41)
SAS -5.5 (SOS 17) W 0.5 (L7 vs 70-53)
April 7, 2015 at 11:36 pm
#2787
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA Sniper Picks:
CHA +6.5
MIN +9
LAL +16.5
April 7, 2015 at 11:54 pm
#2788
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB Sniper Picks:
ATL ML
CHC ML
April 8, 2015 at 5:10 am
#2792
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Winner Winner chicken dinner!
CHA lost, but only to the +3 line open. I bought in at +6.5 and won!
So NBA sniper went 2-1.
And MLB sniper went 1-0 (CHC was PP)
The SmartStat3Star system is now 44-37-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS WTS system is now 69-57-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS ATS system is now 16-13 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The SOS NBA Sniper system is now 10-3 (Since Late March).
The SOS MLB Sniper system is now 1-1
April 8, 2015 at 4:34 pm
#2799
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 44-37-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS WTS system is now 69-57-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The SOS ATS system is now 16-13 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The SOS NBA Sniper system is now 10-3 (Since Late March).
The SOS MLB Sniper system is now 1-1
MLB SNIPER PICKS:
CHC (SOS + PVI)
BOS (SOS + Stars)
KCR (SOS + Stars)
NYY (PVI + Stars) [fades TOR SOS]
WSH (PVI + Stars) [fades NYM SOS]
CLE (PVI + Stars) [fades HOU SOS]
MIL (PVI + Stars)
TBR (PVI + Stars)
April 8, 2015 at 5:09 pm
#2801
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I show SOS +5 or more…
TOR +5
MIN +16
CHC +11
BOS +5
NYM +5
ATL +6
KCR +8
HOU +7
SEA +7
SDP +8
SOS +5 or more went 2-0 yesterday. Today will be a good test. Already played MIN +1.40
and CHC -1.10
April 8, 2015 at 5:24 pm
#2802
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA SOS:
NOP +4
MIL +8
SAC +11
LAL +11
IND -11.5
DAL -7.5
POR -16.5
Also, I have an addition for the MLB SNIPER.
SEA ML (SOS + Stars)
April 8, 2015 at 5:40 pm
#2803
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA SNIPER:
CLE -8 (PVI + Stars) [fades MIL SOS]
SAC +11 (SOS + PVI + Stars)
DAL -7.5 (SOS + PVI + Stars)
There may be others, but Forecast is down today.
And that concludes my picks for the day!
I am now energetically tracking 4 systems.
NBA SOS
NBA SNIPER (NBA SOS derivative combining SOS with other areas)
MLB SOS
MLB SNIPER (MLB SOS derivative combining SOS with other areas)
April 8, 2015 at 10:39 pm
#2807
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Man so many plays today. I had to bet less on each game just to limit my exposure.
Should be interesting to see tonight pans out. lol.
Good Luck one and all.
April 9, 2015 at 12:03 am
#2809
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Yeah I went 1/3rd units for all the MLB and 3 full units for the NBA sniper plays.
Let’s see what happens here…
HUGE day.
It takes like 10 minutes just to track the results nevermind the 3 hours it takes to
suss out the picks.
Jeez!
April 9, 2015 at 12:06 am
#2810
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Also, I’m dropping the SOS ATS tracking. It’s basically even and not worth my time here.
Maybe I’ll resume it again next NBA season, but right now, it’s not worth the room on my
spreadsheet.
Also, I’m going to stop tracking the L7G vs stats as well. There are a few patterns
emerging, but I just don’t have the time right now to track them, and with the Sniper
clocking (a predicted) 10-3 success out the gate, that’s far more trendy than anything I
see in terms of games in the 30s 40s 50s 60s SOS stats and stuff like that. Plus, I
don’t have the time.
So!
KISS.
SOS WTS/ATS (MLB AND NBA)
SOS Sniper (MLB AND NBA)
April 9, 2015 at 3:33 am
#2814
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Why would I give NBA full units?
On the plus side? MLB Sniper is going to be 6-3 if SEA doesn’t come storming back.
April 9, 2015 at 2:39 pm
#2823
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 44-37-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 70-60-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 18-14 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 10-6 (Since Late March).
The MLB SOS Sniper system is now 7-4.
The MLB SOS WTS system 6-3.
The MLB SOS ATS system 0-0.
April 9, 2015 at 2:43 pm
#2824
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s NBA SOS:
CHI +1.5 (SOS 9) W 1.5 (L7 vs )
POR +9.5 (SOS 10) Even (L7 vs )
April 9, 2015 at 2:49 pm
#2825
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Correction Update.
Here is the tally as of the morning of April 9th.
The SmartStat3Star system is now 44-37-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 70-60-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 18-14 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 10-6 (Since Late March).
The MLB SOS Sniper system is now 7-4.
The MLB SOS WTS system 1-5.
The MLB SOS ATS system 2-2.
April 9, 2015 at 2:53 pm
#2826
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB looks to have reset from Spring Training. We’ll have to wait another 14 days to get
our system activated again. It will be a nice break!
But from what we saw, it looks to be effective in the last 2 weeks of Spring training?
Not confirmed with raw data, but it’s plausible right? What’s your thoughts? Yay? Nay?
Don’t know?
April 10, 2015 at 5:11 pm
#2847
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I noticed MLB SOS has reset itself. Starting the season Fresh. I don’t mind. Took
yesterday off. 3 Smart Stat plays for today.
PHO @ N.O. Over 194
MEM @ UTH Under 177 (dropped 2 points)
MIN @ LAL Under 205.5 (dropped 1 point)
The only game I played was PHO @ N.O. Over 194.
April 10, 2015 at 6:04 pm
#2848
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
HAVE WE BEEN MISSING A MASSIVE NHL PAYOFF MCGrath?
“When BUFFALO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Eastern conference opponent –
playing on Friday: 25-5 ATS”
BUF +1.5 +104
At even odds, these stats are very very dominant.
I’m not betting this, I’m just wondering if it’s something we should look out for for
next season, or even maybe or MLB since the pricing structure is so similar between PL
and RL?
April 10, 2015 at 6:06 pm
#2850
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 44-37-1 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 71-61-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 18-14 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 10-6 (Since Late March).
The MLB SOS Sniper system is now 7-4.
The MLB SOS WTS system 1-5.
The MLB SOS ATS system 2-2.
April 10, 2015 at 6:31 pm
#2851
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA SOS System:
BOS +3 (SOS 12) A 4.0
SAC +13 (SOS 5) A 0.5
MIL -9 (SOS 7) W 0.5
IND -3.5 (SOS 9) W 2.0
SAS -2.5 (SOS 6) W 1.0
NOP -9 (SOS 12) Even
April 10, 2015 at 7:35 pm
#2852
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA Sniper System:
BOS +7
SAS -3.5
April 11, 2015 at 2:01 pm
#2867
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 46-37-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 72-62-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 20-16 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 11-7 (Since Late March).
I squashed the 3 days of MLB preseason, the sample was too small. But there is good
reason based on the SOS scrape you did, McGrath, to think that the system might have a
chance for the ’16 preseason.
April 11, 2015 at 2:16 pm
#2868
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
SAC was a push. Corrected:
The SmartStat3Star system is now 46-37-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 72-61-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 20-16 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 11-7 (Since Late March).
April 11, 2015 at 2:19 pm
#2870
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Saturday’s NBA SOS:
TOR +3 (SOS 15) A 0.5
CHI -13.5 (SOS 7) Even
April 11, 2015 at 3:05 pm
#2872
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Saturday’s Sniper picks:
TOR +3
NYK +9.5
April 11, 2015 at 9:22 pm
#2876
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?
month=4&day=6&year=2015&game=gid_2015_04_06_chamlb_kcamlb_1%2F&prevGame=gid_2015_04_06_a
namlb_seamlb_1%2F&prevDate=0406
pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/430935/
Notice where Jerry Layne calls ’em loose…(inside low).
Notice where Hamels focuses…(inside low).
The only thing I’m nervous about is that Hamels is a Lefty so inside and low looks more
“strikeish” than it would if he was pitching right….
I don’t have confidence that Umpire Jerry Layne will be that liberal on the inside due
to him being a LHP.
Hmmm.
April 11, 2015 at 10:20 pm
#2878
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I forgot to warn us we have a “Slaughter” play today. Yesterday OAK beat SEA 12-0 and
they are playing at home vs SEA again today. OAK is winning 2-1 right now in the 8th
inning.
Tonight I am playing the Jays and that is it.
April 12, 2015 at 1:28 am
#2880
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well the slaughter play lost in extra innings. So far this week we had 5 teams while
playing at home and won by 7 runs or more qualify as a play. The record was 2-3
It’s early. We shall see how this whole thing pans out. Looks like the Jays are getting
pounded. All I can say is good thing I am betting small or not at all. Seems I have been
giving back a little lately. Looking foreword to the NBA playoffs.
Tomorrow we have 4 good month pitchers going to the mound. However only 1 qualifies.
PIT (Sadler)
MIL (Loshe) 12-4 in the month of April. 6-2 playing at home.
The others were…
LAD (Grienke) 11-2 in April. 6-1 at home.
SFG (Peavy) 10-5 in April. 6-3 at home.
BOS (Buchholz) 10-5 in April. 6-3 at home.
Unfortunately all 3 of these pitchers are pitching on the road!!
April 12, 2015 at 2:21 pm
#2900
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
GOOD TRACKING the slaughter plays.
The SmartStat3Star system is now 46-37-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 73-61-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 20-17 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 13-7 (Since Late March).
April 12, 2015 at 4:43 pm
#2901
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Sunday’s NBA SOS:
CHA +7 (SOS 8) A 0.5
NOP +4 (SOS 5) A 1.5
LAL +4.5 (SOS 5) A 0.5
BOS -5.5 (SOS 15) W 1.5
DEN -9 (SOS 10) W 0.5
IND -3 (SOS 21) W 1.0
April 12, 2015 at 4:44 pm
#2902
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
For Spreadsheet simplicity, I’ll be changing the format.
BOS 15 -5.5 W 1.5
CHA 8 +7 A 0.5
DEN 10 -9 W 0.5
IND 21 -3 W 1.0
NOP 5 +4 A 1.5
LAL 5 +4.5 A 0.5
April 12, 2015 at 4:46 pm
#2903
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OK nevermind. I’ll leave it. Too hard to read.
April 12, 2015 at 5:08 pm
#2905
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA Sniper Plays:
DEN (SOS + Forecast)
LAL (SOS + Forecast)
DAL (PVI + Stars)
I think this is the first conflict play! Which will win? SOS or PVI?
So DEN -9 is the only pic I have on the NBA front…
And I’ll thank you for that MILWAUKEE pick if I’m not too late.
April 12, 2015 at 5:08 pm
#2906
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
3 Smart Stat Plays for today. With teams resting starters and what not it is hard to
have any confidence in these plays. I did not play them.
CLE @ BOS Over 202
OKC @ IND Under 208.5
DAL @ LAL Over 206
Today I played…
NBA. CHA +7.5
MLB. TOR -1.05 / MIL -1.20
3 plays total.
April 12, 2015 at 7:44 pm
#2909
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well this should be interesting. Today we have a good month pitcher going up against a
“Slaughter” play.
SFG (Peavy)
SDP “Slaughter” play.
Peavy is on the road and therefor does not qualify as a good month pitcher today. SDP
beat SFG yesterday 10-2.
April 13, 2015 at 2:19 pm
#2936
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
SDP wins as a “Slaughter” play. Rec. 3-3 at the end of week 1.
The NYY beat BOS 14-4 at home but are now on the road at BAL there for they do not
qualify as a “Slaughter” play today. If they were at home it would have qualified as a
play.
I miss SOS.
April 13, 2015 at 3:56 pm
#2939
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
MLB Early plays.
DET @ PIT / DET +1.15
WAS @ BOS / BOS -1.40
April 13, 2015 at 9:01 pm
#2962
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I can’t score picks today, but I’ll still try to run the picks after the game to track
systems. Gotta run!
April 13, 2015 at 10:36 pm
#2969
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I split this afternoons plays.
1 Smart Stat for today. It involves the NYK’s so I Will pass.
NYK @ ATL Over 197
April 13, 2015 at 11:09 pm
#2971
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I will take a shot at the under 8.5 runs in The Jays home opener at even money.
April 14, 2015 at 2:36 am
#2984
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The SmartStat3Star system is now 46-37-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 73-64-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 23-17 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 14-7 (Since Late March).
Monday’s SOS Picks:
ORL 13 +9 (SOS 13) W 3.0
LAL 6 +3 (SOS 6) A 0.5
MEM 11 +8 (SOS 11) Even
NOP 5 -11 (SOS 5) W 3.0
UTA 10 -10.5 (SOS 10) A 4.0
MIL 17 -3 (SOS 17) W 0.5
Monday’s Snipers:
NOP -11 (SOS + Stars)
DAL +10.5 (PVI + Stars)
MIL -3 (SOS + Stars)
MEM +8 (SOS + Stars)
NYK +13 (PVI + Stars)
April 14, 2015 at 4:28 pm
#3054
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 47-37-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 75-65-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 26-17 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 18-8 (Since Late March).
April 14, 2015 at 4:31 pm
#3055
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Tuesday’s NBA SOS pick:
BOS -4 (SOS 11) A 5.0
April 14, 2015 at 4:46 pm
#3059
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Today’s Sniper picks:
WSH +7
TOR -2
April 14, 2015 at 5:23 pm
#3061
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
1 Smart Stat play for today.
WAS @ IND Under 192
April 15, 2015 at 8:31 pm
#3102
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Yesterdays Smart Stat lost by 2 points double OT. The previous 2 plays were winners.
SO……
Tonight 4 game qualify on the last day of regular season.
CHA @ TOR Over 195.5
SAN @ N.O. Under 193.5
UTH @ HOU Under 194
DEN @ G.S. Under 217
I am happy just to see what happens except for 1 game. CHA @ TOR
Now folks here in TO think the Raps are going to tank this game in order to avoid MIL
and play WAS instead. TOR coach has already stated the whole team will play. Lot’s of
injuries on CHA side and we should see lot’s of TOR’s bench tonight. These guys can
score!! in the paint, hit the 3 ball from downtown. This total has dropped from say 200
down to 194 ish, roughly six points. I have to admit I like the over 194. Sure these 2
teams could stink out the joint and lot’s of travel from both teams. Back to back and 3
games in 4 nights no wonder this total has dropped! it almost seems to simple. This game
should land right on 194.
Something tells me the fans want TOR to lose this game and finish in 4th spot and play
WAS. This will be a sell out tonight and I would not be surprised if TOR does the
opposite and beats CHA tonight and scores 110 points. Neither team will play defense
tonight!! Why bother!! Don’t risk injury!!
If I bet this game to go under 194 it will sail over 200 for sure. Vegas would be happy.
Gut feeling, Smart Stats, and Vegas liking this game to go Over. Why would they open
this game around 200 knowing 3/4 for CHA and BB for TOR. If they thought this game was
going to be a snooze fest why not open it at say 195? Equal action. They opened this
line high knowing everyone would bet the under. Why?
I would not be surprised if both these teams played no defense and it’s 2 points every
possession with TOR hitting the 3 ball all night.
I am going with Smart Stats tonight and a BLOWOUT TOTAL of a game.
2 units. CHA @ TOR Over 194
April 15, 2015 at 9:21 pm
#3106
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 47-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 75-65-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 26-18 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 19-9 (Since Late March).
ATS SOS picks:
MIA +2.5 (SOS 5) W 0.5
WSH +10 (SOS 5) W 2.0
ORL +8 (SOS 13) Even
NYK +7 (SOS 22) A 1.5
BOS +4 (SOS 6) A 2.5
IND +2 (SOS 6) W 3.0
DEN +11 (SOS 16) Evem
TOR -11.5 (SOS 7) A 1.0
OKL -12.5 (SOS 15) W 1.5
DAL -6 (SOS 7) W 1.0
ATS Sniper picks:
WSH +10
NYK +7
OKL -12.5
BOS +4
April 15, 2015 at 9:32 pm
#3107
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
I have to agree with your assessment.
Look at it.
Let’s say that Tyson A was fighting his clone Tyson B.
Now, let’s say that for whatever reason, we knew that the public thinks that Tyson B is
a bum, and so everyone and their moms are betting for Tyson A to win.
EVEN THOUGH the books know that it’s even chances to win for either fighters, they have
to lower the odds for Tyson A due to the public.
It’s quite possible that Vegas has this at 200, and the public is forcing the line down.
This means value.
The only issue I have is if any of that was steam. 200 – 199.5 – 199 – 198.5 – 198, and
that makes sense. 200 – 198 – 196, and that could indicate sharp action.
With the ATS sides, I can actually see the action which helps diagnose sharp
movement….but with totals I don’t have that available.
In the case of TOR, it started 196 and then steamed to 198 before steadily dropping
down. So the steam here is actually saying OVER, and the public says UNDER.
I don’t argue with sharp money.
I’ll ride your bet.
TOR to go OVER the total.
April 17, 2015 at 3:19 pm
#3176
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well that Raptor game pissed me off. Smart Stat goes 0-4 to end the regular season.
We had 1 Smart Stat yesterday in MLB. It was a winner. Did I play it…No. Figures. Looks
like SOS is moving again. It did pretty good yesterday. ARI over SFG was a nice winner
(+1.50). Did I play those SOS plays…Nope. Figures.
Well enough time has gone by and I guess we have a decision to make. Start playing Smart
Stats and SOS or lay off and wait. Hmm.
Today we have 6 Smart Stat plays in MLB.
ATL @ TOR Under8
MIL @ PIT Under 7
PHI @ WAS Over 7 ***
MIA @ NYM Under 7
NYY @ T.B. Under 7.5
TEX @ SEA Under 7
Out of all 6 plays PHI @ WAS Under 7 runs has the most going for it. Might be worth a
play.
Looks like maybe 6 SOS plays today.
So that would make 12 plays total for today. That is a lot of plays!! No way could I
risk a unit on each play. Bankroll killer!! Now I might consider playing 11 to win
whatever the odds pays or maybe 22 to win what the odds pay. Playing 11 seems a waste of
time. Why bother.
As we both know we have to play all picks or none. Geez, what to do??
April 17, 2015 at 3:31 pm
#3177
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
No “Slaughter” plays so far this week.
April 18, 2015 at 2:25 am
#3189
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
LOL it was a HUGE day and I don’t understand exactly what to do when it all connects
like that.
On average we have 4-5 plays a day? I guess just count it as the average and bet them
all?
BUT NOT NOW.
That’s the thing.
Next year, Late January to Early March, we can run into this and POUND the books
mercilessly.
All of our success this year was TESTED, PREDICTED and CONFIRMED for that time of
season.
We are taking our bottom line in our own hands if we continue playing that system for a
time of year that it wasn’t meant for.
Let it go. We need to figure out a 60% BANGER for this time of season in the Raymond
Report or the Stars section or SOMETHING….but I won’t bet 12 games using a system that
was design for JAN-MAR when we’re in April.
That’s bad Joojoo.
And you know what? As I remember it, that SOS system started to peter off last time
right when it did this time.
I’m not here to gamble.
I’m here to win.
It’ll still be interesting to see though.
Also, I’m triple busy with life so I’m touch and go at the moment.
You have my email, just search your mail for “d33″ and you’ll see the mail I sent you a
long time ago about something or another.
Catch you tomorrow McGrath.
April 18, 2015 at 9:06 am
#3197
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well I don’t recommend it… But
WAS @ TOR Over 193 3.3 units.
WAS @ TOR TOR -3 (buy -1 point) 3.3 units.
Good luck. I would be happy with a split. I will be looking to bet the 2nd half as well.
April 18, 2015 at 2:33 pm
#3207
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
For the record… I have all the fixings for my patented home made pizza. I also picked up
3 panko chicken breasts with cheese and wicked buns.
It’s basketball day!!!! Nothing but playoffs!!
2 hours to go. YeeHaa.
April 18, 2015 at 5:45 pm
#3218
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. TOR -4 points to start the 2nd half.
April 18, 2015 at 7:42 pm
#3220
Reply
DeeVeeOss
Cool man. I’ll try to cap us a ball game as well here.
The 3Star system is now 47-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 79-68-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 27-18-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 22-10 (Since Late March).
HEY MCGRATH!! I think I found our late season NBA “Go-To” for next season brother!!
Check out ’em Sniper plays man!
April 18, 2015 at 11:50 pm
#3221
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Saturday’s NBA SOS picks:
WSH +10
NOP +5
HOU -11
NBA Sniper Picks:
None.
I’ll be starting to track MLB in short order as well.
It’s a little bit of work, but if this works for MLB as well…
I mean really and truly works the way it did with NBA…then there isn’t any reason we
can’t retire on this gold mine.
April 19, 2015 at 1:12 pm
#3235
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 47-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 81-68-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 28-18-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 22-10 (Since Late March).
April 19, 2015 at 3:46 pm
#3237
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA SOS:
ATL -10 Even
MEM -4.5 W 0.5
SAS +1 W 1.0
NBA Sniper:
MEM -4.5
April 19, 2015 at 7:10 pm
#3239
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Good job Sniper man. Once again those pesky Waptors let me down!!
Well I have the under 204.5 in this CHI @ CLE game. We will see what happens.
April 19, 2015 at 9:37 pm
#3242
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Well that game was going over after the first 2 mins of the game.. Fortunately CLE
covered the 2nd half.
On to the next game. No investment to begin with.
April 19, 2015 at 10:47 pm
#3243
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
BRK +3.5 points to start the 2nd half.
April 20, 2015 at 12:11 am
#3244
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
BRK get’s the 2nd half job done. Finally. A winner.
Up next POR @ MEM
Once again, no investment, for this game to start with.
April 20, 2015 at 1:17 am
#3246
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
POR -3 points to start the 2nd half.
April 20, 2015 at 4:20 am
#3248
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
You 2nd Half bets are starting to finally connect!
Beauty! You’ll have to show me how you do that one day.
Ultimately we want to prove ATSSTATS, but if we have a secret we want to share
exclusively with the ATSSTATS members, we can always have Ron lock down these forums if
need be.
April 20, 2015 at 4:25 am
#3249
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Once MLB teams are 14 games deep, I’ll be starting a new forum.
This way, whatever we do for NBA, we can track separately instead of it all bleeding
together and being impossible to understand when what was happening.
When we’re streaking, one way or the other, it might be worth it to make note so that we
can easily see time of seasons.
It all seems fresh right now, but in 2016, this forum will be MONEY.
The fact that we predicted exactly what would happen and when….and then having it repeat
itself TO THE “T”….2016 will be a money year.
It will be the FIRST TIME that I’ll have put ATSSTATS to use the way that it was meant
to.
If NCAAF repeats what happened last season, same thing will be true in the ’16 -’17
NCAAF season.
We can finally start getting some proper payouts at about 60%.
Imagine…you could go flip burgers and full time…and still be making more than your boss!
April 20, 2015 at 5:22 pm
#3266
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
I like that idea of starting a new forum for baseball. Speaking of that…
We have a “Slaughter” play today. NYY @ DET : Yesterday DET beat the CWS by a score of
9-1. Since DET was at home and won by 7 runs or more AND are playing at home their very
next game take DET to win tonight. Slaughter play record 3-3 so far this season.
April 20, 2015 at 8:50 pm
#3273
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Simon has issues with the NYY lineup.
Sabathia has dominated the DET lineup.
DET is 2nd in OPS.
NYY is 7th in OPS.
The only thing I wonder about is the odds.
On the surface, NYY should be small chalk, not Detroit.
If you’re taking DET, they definitely have chances.
NYY is priced too good to be true.
DET had 80% of the bets, and then the line moves from -133 to -108???
That’s CRAZY.
OK yes. I’ll ride Detroit Tigers tonight. Funny money never wins, and NYY is funny money
(too good to be true).
April 20, 2015 at 10:15 pm
#3275
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Who knows how these “Slaughter” plays will pan out. Probably 50/50. Still one never
knows? NYY’s had to travel from Tampa Bay.
I am making pizza tonight and will be watching the Bulls game. I finished off with POR
-3 points for the 2nd half of that game yesterday. I will be asleep for the 2nd game. Ya
working sucks. lol.
April 21, 2015 at 1:13 am
#3280
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
MIL +5 points to start the 2nd half.
April 21, 2015 at 1:34 am
#3283
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Alright. The “Slaughter” play was a winner. Record now 4-3.
Let’s go Milwaukee!!!
April 21, 2015 at 3:13 am
#3288
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Ohh to bad MIL had it but just could not hang on.
I should be in bed… But I find myself watching game 2. Score 30-21 for N.O. I want G.S.
To be down at the half. The more points the better. 10 mins to the half.
April 21, 2015 at 3:47 am
#3289
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
GS -9 points to start the 2nd half.
April 21, 2015 at 2:40 pm
#3318
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
There were 2 sniper plays yesterday that I thought I posted but didn’t.
They both lost. But both SOS plays won. Also, I didn’t track the MEM win, or the SOS
from that day. Stats should be all caught up, let me know if I missed something.
The 3Star system is now 47-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 82-69-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 30-19-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 23-12 (Since Late March).
April 21, 2015 at 2:41 pm
#3319
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Not only the Sniper, but the SOS ATS has proven worthy in the late late season as well.
April 21, 2015 at 7:10 pm
#3330
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Tuesday’s SOS:
BOS +11
No sniper picks for today.
2 more days until teams have 14 games sampled for MLB SOS!!!!
Enjoy your holiday McGrath, business is about to pick up buddy.
April 21, 2015 at 10:51 pm
#3333
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Boston play is in.
Alright now let’s have a little fun with those Damn Raptors. Database shows that TOR
wins SU and that WAS covers the spread and the game goes under.
But what about the 1st qtr?? I honestly feel TOR does win this game. They will have to
come out strong in the first qtr. Soooooo…
TOR -2 points for the first qtr only. If they don’t cover this qtr I hope they lose the
game and series. lol.
April 22, 2015 at 12:53 am
#3340
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Winner. Golf clap. Shh.
April 22, 2015 at 1:22 am
#3343
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA. TOR -6 points to star the 2nd half.
April 22, 2015 at 8:53 pm
#3394
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB forum is UP and LIVE!
TON of plays. We’ll have to figure out exactly what’s what with baseball…we might have
to tinker with some values to have it make more sense.
April 22, 2015 at 8:56 pm
#3395
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA SOS is 17-8 L25.
April 23, 2015 at 3:46 pm
#3460
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Smart Stat play for Thurs April 23
CLE @ BOS Under 203.5
April 23, 2015 at 4:11 pm
#3462
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 47-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 83-69-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 30-20-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 23-12 (Since Late March).
April 23, 2015 at 4:11 pm
#3463
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 47-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 83-69-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 30-20-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 23-13 (Since Late March).
April 23, 2015 at 4:21 pm
#3465
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Thursday’s SOS picks:
BOS +4
CHI -3.5
Thursday’s Sniper picks:
None
April 23, 2015 at 4:36 pm
#3468
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
MLB SOS picks: 6-11
Sniper picks: 12-7
April 23, 2015 at 4:43 pm
#3469
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
OK those are a few pre-season days too.
–
Let’s start fresh.
As of day one of tracking, (14 games in), April 22nd 2015:
MLB SOS – 3-4
MLB Sniper – 5-3
April 24, 2015 at 3:43 pm
#3498
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 48-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 83-70-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 31-20-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 23-13 (Since Late March).
April 24, 2015 at 3:48 pm
#3499
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
Friday has no SOS plays.
NBA Sniper plays:
DAL -1
TOR +4.5
April 24, 2015 at 10:02 pm
#3505
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
No Smart Stat plays for today.
I did bet the over 195 in the TOR @ WAS game.
April 25, 2015 at 2:12 pm
#3510
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 48-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 83-70-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 31-20-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 23-15 (Since Late March).
April 25, 2015 at 4:31 pm
#3514
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
No handicapping for me today. No baseball. Today I am not thinking about handicapping at
all. Today I am going to watch basketball and bet on the 2nd half. That’s it.
I have a stuffed pork roast for dinner with potatoe surprise. Nice.
A stress free day from handicapping.
Good luck today Sniper.
April 26, 2015 at 4:54 pm
#3525
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA SOS:
HOU -3:
NBA Sniper:
DAL +3
April 26, 2015 at 9:06 pm
#3528
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
1 Smart Stat play for today.
HOU @ DAL Over 219. Yikes that is a lot of points. I am on it.
Well it is the last gasp for TOR. Might as well play the over 197.
April 27, 2015 at 12:02 am
#3530
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Probably the last time I get to see TOR for this season. Still WAS might start pulling
players. Therefor…
NBA 2nd half. TOR -2.5 , -1.05 to start the 2nd half.
April 27, 2015 at 12:08 am
#3531
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Down by 16 points that means TOR has to lose by 13 or less. Who knows? Still I will take
this chance.
April 27, 2015 at 3:55 pm
#3539
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
And once again The Raptors let me down. Thank God they are out of the playoffs.
It’s not a Smart Stat play but the Over 196 looks good in the ATL @ BRK game tonight. I
played it.
April 27, 2015 at 4:00 pm
#3540
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 48-38-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 83-70-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 31-21-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 24-15 (Since Late March).
April 27, 2015 at 4:26 pm
#3542
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA SOS:
ATL -4
CHI -8
MEM +2
NBA Sniper:
ATL -4
MEM +2
April 27, 2015 at 10:22 pm
#3546
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Thanks for keeping these records for the entire season. So next year all we have to do
is play all 3 systems and we will likely show 30 units of profit. Nice.
I think I will play both of your Sniper plays tonight.
April 28, 2015 at 3:51 pm
#3556
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Last night’s over play (not a Smart Stat play) was a winner.
1 Smart Stat play for today.
DAL @ HOU Over 221.5 Once again lot’s of points. I played it. Let’s hope Harden hits all
of his 3’s.
That’s 4 plays for today. 3 baseball and 1 NBA. good enough for me.
April 29, 2015 at 4:08 pm
#3565
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 49-39-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 83-71-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 31-23-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 24-17 (Since Late March).
April 29, 2015 at 5:07 pm
#3573
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
NBA Sniper:
ATL -9
April 29, 2015 at 8:04 pm
#3574
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Last night’s Smart Stat play lost. Those boys could not sink the Bismark let alone a
basket.
One Smart Stat play for today.
BRK @ ATL Under 200 now up to 200.5 Why not.
April 30, 2015 at 12:17 am
#3579
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
BRK + 2.5 points to start the 2nd half.
April 30, 2015 at 2:55 am
#3584
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
MEM – 1.5 points to start the 2nd half.
April 30, 2015 at 3:01 am
#3585
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
BRK get’s the 2nd half job done.
April 30, 2015 at 7:29 pm
#3596
Reply
ATS Staff Writer
Participant
The 3Star system is now 49-40-2 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS WTS system is now 83-71-3 in the Klondike. (Since February 2)
The NBA SOS ATS system is now 31-23-1 in the Klondike. (Since Late March)
The NBA Sniper system is now 25-17 (Since Late March).
May 4, 2015 at 8:08 pm
#3692
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
NBA Monday 4th.
CHI @ CLE. : CLE -3.5 points to start the 2nd half.
May 9, 2015 at 9:25 pm
#3939
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
My last play lost as posted above.
Already on MEM tonight. They should win SU let alone getting +4.5
2nd half play. GS -6. GS is down 16 points at this half.
May 9, 2015 at 11:01 pm
#3944
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
And it is a push. I’ll take that. GS should have covered that 2nd half spread.
May 11, 2015 at 10:51 pm
#4022
Reply
mcgrath
Participant
Here we go again.
Mon 11th. NBA. 2nd half play.
GS @ MEM. : MEM -3 points to start the 2nd half.