Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 4, 2015 18:55:43 GMT
Handicapping and Sports Gambling 102:
Competent Betting Systems and Money Management.
1. Why are betting systems necessary?
If you’ve been betting sports for a while, you’ll probably have noticed that your x2 unit picks sometimes don’t win, even when you’d most expect them to.
Some very basic advice to avoid this pitfall is simply, “bet 1 unit per game.“
If you lose 1 game, make up for it by choosing 2 winners in the days to come.
If you lose 2 games, make up for it by choosing 4 winners in the days to come.
Trying to make up for losses by simply betting more money is always a terrible idea.
The value that a bet has, at the odds that the books offer, should have absolutely nothing to do with whether you won/lost yesterday, or if you got burned in a shootout/extra innings, or not.
Still, the point remains that certain games have more value than others and surely betting a little more on those games and a little less on others is a good way that we can chisel an edge.
This is what we can use money management for.
In short, yes, a competent betting system is absolutely necessary.
2. What is this ‘Martingale’ system that I’ve heard so much about?
A while ago, there was a man named Martingale. He proposed a negative progression betting system. Bet 1 unit, if you lose, bet 2, if you lose, bet 4, if you lose, bet 8, if you lose bet 16 etc. Eventually you win back your 1 unit.
I had a buddy who decided to start a Martingale system on San Jose Sharks in late season 2010. They lost 6 straight and if they hadn’t won the 7th game against Minnesota, his book wouldn’t have covered the bet and he would have bottomed out. Luckily the Sharks beat Minnesota on that 7th game and everything worked out for him.
Let’s look at it:
1st game: $50
2nd game: $100
3rd game: $200
4th game: $400
5th game: $800
6th game: $1600 ($3150 invested)
7th game: $3200 (risked 3200 to win 50 measly dollars)
This shows why Martingale is a bad idea:
1. Risking $6,350 to win 50 dollars is maybe a good bet if we’re betting if the sun will rise tomorrow…but no sporting event justifies that kind of lack of value.
2. Instead of risking 1 unit on that 7th game, we’d be risking our entire bottom line, and taking the future of our sports gambling enjoyment out of our own hands, and putting it in the hands of one team to win one game.
This is a negative progression betting system.
This system is for ‘Casino Gamblers’ and has nothing to do with sports handicapping and it has everything to do with gambling addiction. Stay away.
3. If the Martingale system is no good for me, what would be a better one?
The Reversed Labouchere System is the system that we’ll be recommending today. It’s got a flexible versatility that you can adjust to suit your needs for whatever sport you enjoy, as well, it’s definitely extremely enjoyable because it fragments your betting into bite-sized blocks that you can truly savour and enjoy! It allows the reward of enjoying little victories in the middle of the war, and it also mitigates any losing streaks that you may have along the way.
If you bare with me, you’ll see what I mean in a moment, so let’s get started!
The Labouchere System works as follows:
You take any sequence of numbers and arrange them in a line:
1 2 2 2 2 1.
*We always bet the outside 2 numbers.*
So for the first bet for this set, it would be 2 units:
1 2 2 2 2 1 = 2 unit bet.
If that bet wins, you cross off the outside 2 numbers and bet again. ( _ 2 2 2 2 _ ) Next bet is 4u.
But if that bet loses, you add your previous bet to the end. ( 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 ) Next bet is 3u.
Let’s say your first bet won, your new set would now look like the following:
1 2 2 2 2 1 ( bet 1 + 1 )
_ 2 2 2 2 _
Your next bet would be 4 units because the outside numbers that are left are 2 + 2.
On the other hand, let’s say that your first bet lost, your new set would now look like the following:
1 2 2 2 2 1 2
Your next bet would be 3 units because the outside numbers that are left are 1 + 2.
So the idea is that if you start a set and win 3 straight picks, you have no more numbers left and you start over.
Let’s look at what happens if you win 3 straight right off the bat:
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units)
Win 2 units.
2 2 2 2 (2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Win 4 units.
2 2 (2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Win 4 units.
No more numbers left? Congratulations, you’ve won 10 units and you’ve completed a set!
Simply start a new set.
Let’s look at what happens if you lose 3 straight right off the bat:
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units)
Lost 2 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 (1 + 2 = bet 3 units)
Lost 3 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 (1 + 3 = bet 4 units)
Lost 4 units.
So as you can see, when you’re on a losing streak, you’ll end up betting more with each bet in order to cover the losses. But when you win a few, you’re back on your way to clearing the set.
There are 3 things we want to point out about the Labouchere System here:
-This system, as it stands, encourages betting more to compensate for losses. No good.
-This system is a negative progression system just like the Martingale. No good.
-There is no end to increasing the bet amount and therefore it puts your bottom line at risk and at the mercy of multiple losses. No good.
So the reason that we’ve selected the Labouchere System is because if we run it as a POSITIVE PROGRESSION money management system, we can see all of the upsides with none of the downsides and it proves perfectly effective for all intents and purposes.
To turn this from a negative progression system into a positive progression system, we have to run what’s called “The Reverse Labouchere System.”
To reverse this system:
-instead of adding to the end when we lose, we cross off the ends when we lose
-instead of crossing off the ends when we win, we add the end when we win
It should look something like this:
Let’s show what happens with 3 straight wins.
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units )
Win 2 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 (1 + 2 = bet 3 units )
Win 3 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 (1 + 3 = bet 4 units )
Win 4 units.
There are 10 units in the set (1+2+2+2+2+1=10units), and we’ve just won 9 units.
Ultimately you can set your limit wherever you like, but let’s call that ‘good enough’ and cross the set. So once we achieve +8 or +9 units, the set is complete and should be reset to 1 2 2 2 2 1.
Notice, with the reversed Labouchere, the more we win, the more we bet.
Let’s show what happens with 3 straight losses:
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units)
Lost 2 units.
_ 2 2 2 2 _ (2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Lost 4 units.
_ _ 2 2 _ _ ( 2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Lost 4 units.
There are no more numbers to cross off and so this set is complete. This set we count as a loss and so we reset it to 1 2 2 2 2 1.
So in a nutshell, that’s what the Reversed Labouchere System is all about.
But here is where the brilliance of this system shines through:
Among most sports handicappers, it’s common knowledge that good money management is to make 2.5% to 5% of your entire bankroll equal 1 unit. In other words, if you have 100 dollars in your account, you should bet $2.50 per game. 2.5% is a little bit on the conservative side but it will protect your bottom line. Mostly it’s for the guys that pick dogs. If you’re picking chalk to win, then 5% should be fine.
These structured, lower sized bets, will keep adrenaline and stress out of your decisions and you can simply focus on picking the right teams to win without any other distractions.
So if we want the average bet to be 5% of a $100 bankroll, then a set like 1 2 2 2 2 1 is actually a little bit small.
Maybe we would look at something like…1 2 3 3 2 1
Personally, I would arrange it the other way around… 3 2 1 1 2 3.
By putting the larger numbers on the ends and the smaller numbers in the middle, it means that if we get into a losing streak, we lose less and less with each loss. I really like this idea because things come and go in streaks, and also, it’s an awesome feeling to know that 3 straight losses only cost you 12 units instead of 15 units.
So the Reverse Labouchere is awesome because you can dial in that 5% as the median bet for a set and therefore one of it’s benefits is that it includes money management as an integral part of the system.
The other point that makes the Labouchere system awesome is the fact that when you run 2 or 3 of them side by side, value-wise, you can allocate exactly which game you put in which slot based on the value!
Look here:
Let’s say that you have 3 systems running simultaneously in case of those very rare days where you want to bet 3 games.
System 1 is fresh at 3 2 1 1 2 3 (a 6 unit bet)
System 2 won twice and lost once _ 2 1 1 2 3 6 _ (an 8 unit bet)
System 3 is in it’s death throes with 2 straight losses _ _ 1 1 _ _ (a 2 unit bet)
See here how now we can choose what game we want to play where.
Often, I’ll feel far better about betting a long shot in the 2 unit spot rather than in the 8 unit spot. Sometimes, if it’s a lock and I don’t want to risk to much to win, I might put high chalk in that 2 unit spot as well.
On the other hand, if I see a game that has to win, it’s got every factor, and then some, in it’s favour, I might put that game in the 6 or 8 unit slot.
The point is, instead of betting 1/2 units and x2 units, when we run 3 systems simultaneously, we can micromanage each game into the applicable system that expresses the value of each game!
So it’s very much like betting 1/2 units and x2 units, but it falls into a much larger cohesive narrative that’s got to do with clearing sets instead of just betting a 1/2 unit here and x2 units there, willynilly, with a wet finger to the wind.
The third and final benefit to this system is the sense of closure that we get with each set.
If you remember the example of the guy that was betting Martingale on San Jose, he risked over 6000 dollars to win 50 bucks. 7 straight losses and he would have been done with sports gambling.
With us, if we lose 7 straight, it does little more than dent our bottom line.
Lose a set? No biggy! Start over and try again! No real sense of loss, no panic, no futility.
Win a set? Awesome! Sense of accomplishment and progress.
Put frankly, this is the most competent and most encompassing example of money management that I’ve come across and I highly recommend that you sort out a spread sheet for yourself and give it a try as well.
With any luck, it will look something like this snippet from 2013:
free image host
Competent Betting Systems and Money Management.
1. Why are betting systems necessary?
If you’ve been betting sports for a while, you’ll probably have noticed that your x2 unit picks sometimes don’t win, even when you’d most expect them to.
Some very basic advice to avoid this pitfall is simply, “bet 1 unit per game.“
If you lose 1 game, make up for it by choosing 2 winners in the days to come.
If you lose 2 games, make up for it by choosing 4 winners in the days to come.
Trying to make up for losses by simply betting more money is always a terrible idea.
The value that a bet has, at the odds that the books offer, should have absolutely nothing to do with whether you won/lost yesterday, or if you got burned in a shootout/extra innings, or not.
Still, the point remains that certain games have more value than others and surely betting a little more on those games and a little less on others is a good way that we can chisel an edge.
This is what we can use money management for.
In short, yes, a competent betting system is absolutely necessary.
2. What is this ‘Martingale’ system that I’ve heard so much about?
A while ago, there was a man named Martingale. He proposed a negative progression betting system. Bet 1 unit, if you lose, bet 2, if you lose, bet 4, if you lose, bet 8, if you lose bet 16 etc. Eventually you win back your 1 unit.
I had a buddy who decided to start a Martingale system on San Jose Sharks in late season 2010. They lost 6 straight and if they hadn’t won the 7th game against Minnesota, his book wouldn’t have covered the bet and he would have bottomed out. Luckily the Sharks beat Minnesota on that 7th game and everything worked out for him.
Let’s look at it:
1st game: $50
2nd game: $100
3rd game: $200
4th game: $400
5th game: $800
6th game: $1600 ($3150 invested)
7th game: $3200 (risked 3200 to win 50 measly dollars)
This shows why Martingale is a bad idea:
1. Risking $6,350 to win 50 dollars is maybe a good bet if we’re betting if the sun will rise tomorrow…but no sporting event justifies that kind of lack of value.
2. Instead of risking 1 unit on that 7th game, we’d be risking our entire bottom line, and taking the future of our sports gambling enjoyment out of our own hands, and putting it in the hands of one team to win one game.
This is a negative progression betting system.
This system is for ‘Casino Gamblers’ and has nothing to do with sports handicapping and it has everything to do with gambling addiction. Stay away.
3. If the Martingale system is no good for me, what would be a better one?
The Reversed Labouchere System is the system that we’ll be recommending today. It’s got a flexible versatility that you can adjust to suit your needs for whatever sport you enjoy, as well, it’s definitely extremely enjoyable because it fragments your betting into bite-sized blocks that you can truly savour and enjoy! It allows the reward of enjoying little victories in the middle of the war, and it also mitigates any losing streaks that you may have along the way.
If you bare with me, you’ll see what I mean in a moment, so let’s get started!
The Labouchere System works as follows:
You take any sequence of numbers and arrange them in a line:
1 2 2 2 2 1.
*We always bet the outside 2 numbers.*
So for the first bet for this set, it would be 2 units:
1 2 2 2 2 1 = 2 unit bet.
If that bet wins, you cross off the outside 2 numbers and bet again. ( _ 2 2 2 2 _ ) Next bet is 4u.
But if that bet loses, you add your previous bet to the end. ( 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 ) Next bet is 3u.
Let’s say your first bet won, your new set would now look like the following:
1 2 2 2 2 1 ( bet 1 + 1 )
_ 2 2 2 2 _
Your next bet would be 4 units because the outside numbers that are left are 2 + 2.
On the other hand, let’s say that your first bet lost, your new set would now look like the following:
1 2 2 2 2 1 2
Your next bet would be 3 units because the outside numbers that are left are 1 + 2.
So the idea is that if you start a set and win 3 straight picks, you have no more numbers left and you start over.
Let’s look at what happens if you win 3 straight right off the bat:
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units)
Win 2 units.
2 2 2 2 (2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Win 4 units.
2 2 (2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Win 4 units.
No more numbers left? Congratulations, you’ve won 10 units and you’ve completed a set!
Simply start a new set.
Let’s look at what happens if you lose 3 straight right off the bat:
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units)
Lost 2 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 (1 + 2 = bet 3 units)
Lost 3 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 (1 + 3 = bet 4 units)
Lost 4 units.
So as you can see, when you’re on a losing streak, you’ll end up betting more with each bet in order to cover the losses. But when you win a few, you’re back on your way to clearing the set.
There are 3 things we want to point out about the Labouchere System here:
-This system, as it stands, encourages betting more to compensate for losses. No good.
-This system is a negative progression system just like the Martingale. No good.
-There is no end to increasing the bet amount and therefore it puts your bottom line at risk and at the mercy of multiple losses. No good.
So the reason that we’ve selected the Labouchere System is because if we run it as a POSITIVE PROGRESSION money management system, we can see all of the upsides with none of the downsides and it proves perfectly effective for all intents and purposes.
To turn this from a negative progression system into a positive progression system, we have to run what’s called “The Reverse Labouchere System.”
To reverse this system:
-instead of adding to the end when we lose, we cross off the ends when we lose
-instead of crossing off the ends when we win, we add the end when we win
It should look something like this:
Let’s show what happens with 3 straight wins.
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units )
Win 2 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 (1 + 2 = bet 3 units )
Win 3 units.
1 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 (1 + 3 = bet 4 units )
Win 4 units.
There are 10 units in the set (1+2+2+2+2+1=10units), and we’ve just won 9 units.
Ultimately you can set your limit wherever you like, but let’s call that ‘good enough’ and cross the set. So once we achieve +8 or +9 units, the set is complete and should be reset to 1 2 2 2 2 1.
Notice, with the reversed Labouchere, the more we win, the more we bet.
Let’s show what happens with 3 straight losses:
1 2 2 2 2 1 (1 + 1 = bet 2 units)
Lost 2 units.
_ 2 2 2 2 _ (2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Lost 4 units.
_ _ 2 2 _ _ ( 2 + 2 = bet 4 units)
Lost 4 units.
There are no more numbers to cross off and so this set is complete. This set we count as a loss and so we reset it to 1 2 2 2 2 1.
So in a nutshell, that’s what the Reversed Labouchere System is all about.
But here is where the brilliance of this system shines through:
Among most sports handicappers, it’s common knowledge that good money management is to make 2.5% to 5% of your entire bankroll equal 1 unit. In other words, if you have 100 dollars in your account, you should bet $2.50 per game. 2.5% is a little bit on the conservative side but it will protect your bottom line. Mostly it’s for the guys that pick dogs. If you’re picking chalk to win, then 5% should be fine.
These structured, lower sized bets, will keep adrenaline and stress out of your decisions and you can simply focus on picking the right teams to win without any other distractions.
So if we want the average bet to be 5% of a $100 bankroll, then a set like 1 2 2 2 2 1 is actually a little bit small.
Maybe we would look at something like…1 2 3 3 2 1
Personally, I would arrange it the other way around… 3 2 1 1 2 3.
By putting the larger numbers on the ends and the smaller numbers in the middle, it means that if we get into a losing streak, we lose less and less with each loss. I really like this idea because things come and go in streaks, and also, it’s an awesome feeling to know that 3 straight losses only cost you 12 units instead of 15 units.
So the Reverse Labouchere is awesome because you can dial in that 5% as the median bet for a set and therefore one of it’s benefits is that it includes money management as an integral part of the system.
The other point that makes the Labouchere system awesome is the fact that when you run 2 or 3 of them side by side, value-wise, you can allocate exactly which game you put in which slot based on the value!
Look here:
Let’s say that you have 3 systems running simultaneously in case of those very rare days where you want to bet 3 games.
System 1 is fresh at 3 2 1 1 2 3 (a 6 unit bet)
System 2 won twice and lost once _ 2 1 1 2 3 6 _ (an 8 unit bet)
System 3 is in it’s death throes with 2 straight losses _ _ 1 1 _ _ (a 2 unit bet)
See here how now we can choose what game we want to play where.
Often, I’ll feel far better about betting a long shot in the 2 unit spot rather than in the 8 unit spot. Sometimes, if it’s a lock and I don’t want to risk to much to win, I might put high chalk in that 2 unit spot as well.
On the other hand, if I see a game that has to win, it’s got every factor, and then some, in it’s favour, I might put that game in the 6 or 8 unit slot.
The point is, instead of betting 1/2 units and x2 units, when we run 3 systems simultaneously, we can micromanage each game into the applicable system that expresses the value of each game!
So it’s very much like betting 1/2 units and x2 units, but it falls into a much larger cohesive narrative that’s got to do with clearing sets instead of just betting a 1/2 unit here and x2 units there, willynilly, with a wet finger to the wind.
The third and final benefit to this system is the sense of closure that we get with each set.
If you remember the example of the guy that was betting Martingale on San Jose, he risked over 6000 dollars to win 50 bucks. 7 straight losses and he would have been done with sports gambling.
With us, if we lose 7 straight, it does little more than dent our bottom line.
Lose a set? No biggy! Start over and try again! No real sense of loss, no panic, no futility.
Win a set? Awesome! Sense of accomplishment and progress.
Put frankly, this is the most competent and most encompassing example of money management that I’ve come across and I highly recommend that you sort out a spread sheet for yourself and give it a try as well.
With any luck, it will look something like this snippet from 2013:
free image host