Post by ATS Staffwriter on Oct 13, 2015 18:58:12 GMT
OHIO U ML - Full unit.
Why? Because Western Michigan is allowing above average scoring in the air and on the ground.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick. Matchups: H2H (18-8), SMART (15-7).
LSU ML - 1/2 unit
LSU puts up more points than Florida, but mainly on the ground, which Florida is strong against.
Florida is stronger in the air here, but LSU's air defense is fairly strong as well.
LSU has put up more than triple running yards than some other teams and therefore Florida probably won't have seen a run game like LSU. So LSU run game should get an asterisk.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
GEORGIA ST ML - 0 unit
This is a tougher pick. Pittsburgh has arguably the best defense against the run game. Unfortunately Georgia St's bread and butter is their run game. This contest has issues. Despite it fitting the LSMLS, we'll have to pass.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
USC +6.5 - 1/2 unit
This contest is exactly like Georgia St but with the exception that Notre Dame has a strong run game and USC has at least an average defense against the run game. I wouldn't offer more than a 1/2 unit in this spot.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
SAN JOSE ST ML - Full unit
This position is strong for San Jose. Their bread and butter is the air game and San Diego is, at best, average against the pass game.
Air > Ground the same way that Def > Offense.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
IOWA U41 - 1/2 unit
PF/PA lines up within a point of the total. Both teams have strong defenses. This game should probably be a full unit bet, but that total of 41 makes me a tiny bit nervous.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: ATS (10-4), SUPER (12-9).
AIR FORCE U54 - 1/4 unit
Combined PF/PA make this just a few points over the total. Ironically the Air Force has arguably the weakest pass game in the league. Yet they're run game is seeing them to 'higher than average' point scoring. Colorado State's run defense is a tiny bit better than average so they might have it in them to shut down Air Force's only way of earning yards on the field. This could be close. Perhaps a 1/4 unit in this spot.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: ATS (10-4), SUPER (12-9).
ALABAMA O52.5 - 1/2 unit
Combined PF/PA has this a few point under the total. Alabama has arguably the best run defense in the league. Both teams have average defense against the air game. Both teams earn their points in the air, so this definitely has the potential but I would be hesitant to bet more than a 1/2 on it.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: SMART (6-2).
GEORGIA TECH U49.5 - 1/2 unit
Combined PF/PA, this should be going way over the total. That said, Georgia State's bread and butter is definitely the air game and Pittsburgh boasts one of the strongest anti-air defense systems in NCAAF. So while this killed our Gerogia St ML pick, it should be good for the U49.5 here.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: ATS (10-4), SUPER (12-9).
SAN JOSE STATE U48.5 - 0 unit
Combined PF/PA, this should be going way over the total. The strengths between off. vs def. are somewhat mismatched here. This could go under the total but I wouldn't bet on it.
Matchups: SUPER (12-9).
Why? Because Western Michigan is allowing above average scoring in the air and on the ground.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick. Matchups: H2H (18-8), SMART (15-7).
LSU ML - 1/2 unit
LSU puts up more points than Florida, but mainly on the ground, which Florida is strong against.
Florida is stronger in the air here, but LSU's air defense is fairly strong as well.
LSU has put up more than triple running yards than some other teams and therefore Florida probably won't have seen a run game like LSU. So LSU run game should get an asterisk.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
GEORGIA ST ML - 0 unit
This is a tougher pick. Pittsburgh has arguably the best defense against the run game. Unfortunately Georgia St's bread and butter is their run game. This contest has issues. Despite it fitting the LSMLS, we'll have to pass.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
USC +6.5 - 1/2 unit
This contest is exactly like Georgia St but with the exception that Notre Dame has a strong run game and USC has at least an average defense against the run game. I wouldn't offer more than a 1/2 unit in this spot.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
SAN JOSE ST ML - Full unit
This position is strong for San Jose. Their bread and butter is the air game and San Diego is, at best, average against the pass game.
Air > Ground the same way that Def > Offense.
This contest is a bona fide Low Spread ML pick.
IOWA U41 - 1/2 unit
PF/PA lines up within a point of the total. Both teams have strong defenses. This game should probably be a full unit bet, but that total of 41 makes me a tiny bit nervous.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: ATS (10-4), SUPER (12-9).
AIR FORCE U54 - 1/4 unit
Combined PF/PA make this just a few points over the total. Ironically the Air Force has arguably the weakest pass game in the league. Yet they're run game is seeing them to 'higher than average' point scoring. Colorado State's run defense is a tiny bit better than average so they might have it in them to shut down Air Force's only way of earning yards on the field. This could be close. Perhaps a 1/4 unit in this spot.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: ATS (10-4), SUPER (12-9).
ALABAMA O52.5 - 1/2 unit
Combined PF/PA has this a few point under the total. Alabama has arguably the best run defense in the league. Both teams have average defense against the air game. Both teams earn their points in the air, so this definitely has the potential but I would be hesitant to bet more than a 1/2 on it.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: SMART (6-2).
GEORGIA TECH U49.5 - 1/2 unit
Combined PF/PA, this should be going way over the total. That said, Georgia State's bread and butter is definitely the air game and Pittsburgh boasts one of the strongest anti-air defense systems in NCAAF. So while this killed our Gerogia St ML pick, it should be good for the U49.5 here.
This contest is Matchup Totals sanctioned. Matchups: ATS (10-4), SUPER (12-9).
SAN JOSE STATE U48.5 - 0 unit
Combined PF/PA, this should be going way over the total. The strengths between off. vs def. are somewhat mismatched here. This could go under the total but I wouldn't bet on it.
Matchups: SUPER (12-9).