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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 8, 2015 16:51:11 GMT
Week 9:
BUFFALO -3. PG/PA are even. But BUF has better RYPG, against a vulnerable Rush Defense.
TENNESSEE +7 OK this is a steal. TENNESSEE has 6.6 less PAPG, but also 8.7 less PFPG. They have equal running, but NOS allows way yards both running and passing. But the problem with this is that NOS has arguably the best pass game in the league. We'll have to hold off on this one.
CAR +2.5 Better Run game against an inferior Run Defense. All other things about equal.
TBB +2 Worse PF/PA to a small degree, but a way better Rush game and they're against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
DEN -5.5 Better PF record. Far far better PA record. vs a very bad rush and pass defense.
PHI -3PHI with a better PF and PA record, all else is fairly equal. I wouldn't want to go too far past "-3" but it should be a good deal at that price.
CHI +4.5 would qualify, but SDP has a top 5 passing team...then again...CHI has a top 5 PYAPG record....So I guess CHICAGO is a lean.
NYJ look great, but -9 is too steep. I'd sign off at -6 but I don't know about -9.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 8, 2015 16:53:15 GMT
What's "11/8" plays men man> its the date...lol Yeah I noticed that right after and responded, I guess I posted the response int he NBA forum or something. Everything is time stamped anyway man. Easier just to use the day of the week.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 8, 2015 16:56:43 GMT
Momentum and Performance: JAK +6 OAK +4.5 CAR +2.5 STL +2.5 ATL -7 NOS -8
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Post by tmcg on Nov 8, 2015 19:00:57 GMT
I also played DEN - 4 points and PHI -3 full game. 1 unit each.
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Post by 1weedhopper on Nov 10, 2015 0:07:52 GMT
Monday nite football 11/9 chargers/bears= over 49 lean bears +4.5..small if I play it
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 12, 2015 3:57:32 GMT
So far DOOROP is 5-2. So far TCMP is 3-3.
Good to know which methods are more successful. That's need to know information.
Traditional Capping for Momentum and Performance: BUF +2.5 JAK +6 (Bet) PIT -5 (Bet) DAL +1 OAK -3 KCC +6.5 (Bet) ARI +3
Defense Over Offense Rushing Over Passing: Pittsburgh -5 (lock) Carolina -4.5 (lock) Minnesota +3 (could be tight) Philly -6.5 (could be tight) St. Louis -7 (could be tight) Buffalo +3 (could be tight, Jets have #1 Rush defense) Cincinnati -10 (could be tight)
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Post by 1weedhopper on Nov 12, 2015 20:19:21 GMT
Thursdays play 11/12 jets =ml via some twitter contacts, buff got hit with heavy steam @ +2.5 dropping line down to 1.5 as of now I see both jets -1.5 and -2 / ml =-135..I jumped in @ -120
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 12, 2015 23:19:19 GMT
Too tight. I see no way to chisel an edge here. All things are equal according to the DOOROP, but according to the LowSpreadML system, NYJ get the nod on this one.
I might play for a 1/4 unit.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 13, 2015 4:03:10 GMT
Hey 1weedhopper when was the last time that you deposited money into your betting account? What book do you use?
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Post by 1weedhopper on Nov 13, 2015 23:11:52 GMT
I USE 5DIMES I loaded up beging of football. do you have another book I can use???
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 13, 2015 23:17:41 GMT
If you live in the States, 5Dimes is the best book. If you like outside of the States, Pinnacle is the best book.
But it's always good to have a few so that you can line shop.
Line shopping isn't worth it when you bet 2-3 games a year.
But if you're betting daily, across years...then saving 2-3 point on your juice, here and there, becomes a huge deal.
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 13, 2015 23:18:30 GMT
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Post by 1weedhopper on Nov 15, 2015 13:11:09 GMT
sunday 11/15 minn+3 wash=pk
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Post by ATS Staffwriter on Nov 15, 2015 14:41:42 GMT
Why those picks Weedhopper?
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Post by 1weedhopper on Nov 16, 2015 23:01:35 GMT
I like picks ez to find a winner, for me it is anyway. Monday night play Houston +10.5 or 11
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