|
Post by tmcg on Dec 20, 2015 0:38:28 GMT
Thanks Sniper.
Man I hope NYJ get the job done tonight. I will probably bet the 2nd half. Your thoughts throughout the 1st half would be appreciated.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 20, 2015 0:46:37 GMT
If I'm around to watch the whole thing, I'll definitely break you off a mid-game synopsis.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 20, 2015 15:31:53 GMT
Last year through December, NCAAF was 23-14.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 22, 2015 17:52:06 GMT
When All teams played as a 7 or more road Underdog During Week 16 to 20: 96-70-3 ATS 57-108-4 ML
I think I like Akron here. They have this on the DOOROP hands down. Better Defense, Better Rush.
-
When All teams played as a 3 or less road Underdog During Week 16 to 20: 48-58-3 ATS 47-62 ML
I like Toledo as well due to them having the better rush. However, when I look at that ATSSTATS position...I don't think I can touch this game.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 22, 2015 17:53:08 GMT
ATSSTATS FORUMS POTD IS MARKING OVER 69% LAST 56 BETS!!
How To Win Money Betting Sports 101: ATSSTATS.COM
|
|
|
Post by tmcg on Dec 22, 2015 18:27:28 GMT
Well guess who is off until Jan 4th. That's right.
We have a couple of Bowl games today and I will watching the first 2 games and investing on the 2nd half of both games. Potato Bowld and Boca Raton Bowl.
Time to hit the grocery store and pick up something good to cook for dinner.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 22, 2015 18:57:31 GMT
Sounds good! What are you going to get to eat?
|
|
|
Post by tmcg on Dec 22, 2015 20:02:08 GMT
Bacon cheeseburger with potatoe wedges. Nice.
|
|
|
Post by tmcg on Dec 22, 2015 21:40:49 GMT
Well I am liking Akron plus any points for the 2nd half.
|
|
|
Post by tmcg on Dec 22, 2015 22:00:31 GMT
Akron +6 points for the 2nd half.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 22, 2015 22:44:16 GMT
If Akron isn't up into the half, I'll probably play a 2ndH on them.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 24, 2015 16:31:04 GMT
DOOROP nailed Toledo and Akron.
According to DOOROP, San Diego State should blow away Cincinnati by FAR. But the thing is, based on populace, SDS should have the mass lion's share of bets.
And they do.
And they're still only a -2 favourite?
SDS is powerrated at a -9 spread............So I'm very very nervous about a "Too Good To Be True", but I don't know how that plays out in NCAAF.
Due to this fact, I'll cut my wager in half.
San Diego State 1/2u to bet.
Upgraded to a 3/4u bet.
Upgraded to a full unit ML bet @ -128.
When San Diego State team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a division game - Scored 27 points or more FOR in their last game: 23-3 ML
When San Diego State team played as Home team as a Favorite - During Week 12 to 16 - Scored 27 points or more FOR in their last game: 12-1 ML
When San Diego State played as Home Favorite- With Total 54.5 or more: 20-3 ML
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 26, 2015 6:05:07 GMT
ATSSTATS says we gotta take Marshall ML and at -5, we should look at ATS
...BUT...
Connecticut has lately been highly defensive against teams where they were clear underdogs. That said, along with those shows of defense came a lacking offense as well.
Marshall has been the opposite. They have been scoring big but they've also been letting a lot of points through their endzone.
Since DEFENSE > OFFENSE, we have to like Connecticut's chances
...but...
Connecticut PF 16.25 L4G Connecticut PA 15.00 L4G
Marshall PF 34.5 L4G Marshall PA 21.5 L4G
But here's the rub...
CONNECTICUT ATS +/- L4G = +21 MARSHALL ATS +/- L4G = -12.5
So that's 33.5 point spread across 4 games...
33.5 / 4 = Connecticut gets an extra +8.375 per game to handicap for the Vegas spread.
L4G handicapped for Vegas Spread: Connecticut PF 20.25 L4G Connecticut PA 19.375 L4G
Marshall PF 34.5 L4G Marshall PA 21.5 L4G
So this still leaves Marshall with a 12 point spread.
The books are only asking 5.
I'll be playing a small unit on ML and a small unit on ATS.
This way, instead of something going very wrong ATS and losing it all, if Marshall wins down to the wire, I can still get back 1/2 my losses.
But that said, I think the -5 bet is justified as the math bears that out.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 26, 2015 17:27:28 GMT
If I bet 2H, I'd go with Marshall on this. They're putting plays together, connecting passes, moving the markers, and their defense has been very strong.
|
|
|
Post by ATS Staffwriter on Dec 30, 2015 18:18:24 GMT
Take a look at Memphis 2H. I'll probably be placing a bet in that spot. They should be taking this down.
Ummmm....scratch that. I just looked at the database.
While trad cap has Memphis by a MILE...
ATSSTATS has Auburn lit up with blue and green.
I'm not sure which gets precedence so I'll have to back off here.
|
|